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Showing posts from April, 2024

Observations About Global Warming

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We've talked about the topic below many times. The insurance industry has conned many gullible state regulators into giving them rates to reflect higher numbers of disasters, even though disasters are not  increasing .  From one of the same people who believe global warming is a catastrophe , Paul, Ehrlich, this #1 best seller was wrong about everything. Glenn Reynolds has a great column on the topic. No matter how wrong they are, it never affects their confidence!

9p Update: Tornado Risk: Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin

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All tornado warnings have expired as of 9pm. However, the tornado watch for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin continues until10pm.  ---- The tornado watch continues as of 7:40pm with a tornado warning  in effect in southern Wisconsin.  New Tornado Watch has been issued: -- original posting -- The bright red outline is where there is an enhanced red risk of tornadoes from now until 7pm. Please closely monitor local weather. You may also follow me on Twitter @usweatherexpert. 

3 Tornado Watches in Effect

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The counties in yellow are under a tornado watch as of 1:40pm.  Brown is a wind advisory. Please ignore the warning polygons as they change rapidly. If you live in the areas in yellow, please keep on up on the weather the rest of the afternoon. There has been a surprisingly large number of tornadoes -- some of which have been damaging -- this morning and into the early afternoon. More are expected. 

Tornado Watch: Missouri and Iowa

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Note the forecast is for "strong" tornadoes. We've already had a tornado north of Kansas City this morning. 

Enhanced Risk of Tornadoes in the Midwest

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The yellow, hatched area is where there is an enhanced risk  of strong tornadoes later today. The brown area has a significant risk.  I will update the forecast this afternoon. Regardless, please keep an eye on the weather in these areas as we've already had at least one tornado this morning.

Tornado Watch: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska

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A tornado watch is in effect for parts of Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas until 3am This is an unusual situation. There is a possibility no thunderstorms at all will form. However, if they do and they grow significantly, strong tornadoes are quite possible.  In addition, giant hail and damaging thunderstorm winds are forecast with the thunderstorms.  As this is an overnight situation, remember: nighttime tornadoes are 2.5 times more deadly than daytime tornadoes. Make sure you have a way of getting tornado warnings during the night. 

[4:30pm Update] Central U.S. Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Forecast

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Below is my forecast for the area of greatest concern regarding tornadoes, which could be strong.  However, this is what meteorologists call a "conditional threat." The confidence that thunderstorms will even form is lower than average. But, if they do, they could be powerful with tornadoes, giant hail and damaging thunderstorm winds. I think the area is safe from violent weather before 7pm.  The threat should taper off by around 2am. Of course, I will update this later this evening.  The first tornado watch of the day is out. A second tornado watch is expected to be issued in the region outlined below. In between the areas highlighted above, there is an art of central and southwest Kansas where -- if any storms can form -- they have the potential to produce strong tornadoes. That is the yellow, hatched area.  Farther south, the brown area is where a significant tornado risk exists, but it is of a lesser nature and will not materialize until around sunset or after.  It is cri

Pet Owners: In Case of Tornado

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[ Updated 4:40pm ] Eastern Half of U.S., Damaging Winds and Large Hail Forecast Today; Tornadoes Tomorrow

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NWS Storm Prediction Center at 4:40pm says the hatched area from central and eastern Virginia into the Potomac has an increasing risk of damaging winds -- which means tree damage and power outages. Please prepare accordingly.  --- original posting below --- The area outlined in red is where thunderstorm-generated winds strong enough to cause power outrages and tree damage are forecast to occur the rest of the afternoon. This image was from 1:22pm.  The area in yellow has a significant risk of thunderstorms with hail 1" or larger. In Ken From Terre Haute to Lexington, hail 2" or larger is forecast to occur.  For Tuesday: The hatched area is where strong forecasts are forecast to occur Tuesday and Tuesday night. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. 

National Weather Service Continues to Fall Apart

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The latest combination tornado, large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds forecast.  Damaging winds forecast in Virginia. Giant hail forecast in the Ohio Valley. Strong tornadoes in the Great Plains with 2-3" hail. Yet, this is what you get when meteorologists try to view satellite images. The National Weather Service's satellite network is down. No word on when it might be available again. This is a day where satellite imagery is essential for forecasting. That's just the half of it. For the second time in a week, the NWS's radar network went down during the night. The red boxes are radars out of service. I took this image about 12:30am this morning.  This is a headline from last week's outage: The NWS is falling apart. Tornado warnings less accurate. Radar breakdowns during major tornado situations, now these latest outages.  If the NWS could solve these issues internally, I'm sure they would. But, after years of deteriorating reliability and quality of serv

Today's Tornado Outlook: Heads Up Great Plains

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A nighttime tornado threat exists Monday night.  In this particular situation, there is little chance of tornadoes before 4pm and the threat might be later than that.  The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. The yellow, hatched area has a significant threat of strong tornadoes. Here is a closeup of the higher threat areas. The hail risk is considerable with any well-developed thunderstorm.  The areas with hatching is where 2-3 inch hail may fall. Elsewhere, 1 to 2" hail is possible. The enhanced risk of large hail is in the red area with a significant risk elsewhere.  Have at least three of these. For more on Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA), scroll down. Activate WEA alerts on your smartphone:

Great New Photos Added!

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We've added new photos to our collection at Adobe Stock Photography and many of them center around wildfires. Please check them out.

Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Forecast for Monday

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Monday is a tricky forecast. Because it nearly exactly reflects my thinking, I'm presenting the current forecast from Nadocast .  The yellow area has an enhanced  risk of tornadoes while the brown areas have a significant risk.  I completely agree with the NWS SPC regarding the risk of giant hail. The hatched area has a risk of 2" or larger hail. The red areas have an enhanced risk of hail 1" or larger. The yellow area has a significant risk of 1" hail.  Please have at least three of these ways to receive storm warnings now and for the rest of this tornado season. 

Today's Tornado Risk: Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia

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5:10pm Update Here is the radar at 5:04pm. The pink tinting is a severe thunderstorm watch for 70 mph winds and 2" hail along with "one or two tornadoes." The yellow is a severe thunderstorm warning in effect at that time. Please monitor local weather conditions this evening if you live in the pink areas.  ---- The brown area is a signifiant risk of tornadoes from around Altoona to west of Canton, Ohio. The red area has an enhanced  risk of wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger which means tree damage and consequent power outages. This includes State College and Bloomsburg. The yellow area has a significant risk. The yellow area has a significant risk of 1" or larger hail which the hatched area may see 2" or larger hail.

Sunday: From the Pope

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I am a practicing Catholic and wish to present vital wisdom from Pope Francis regarding some of the major moral issues of our time. I wish to let you read it for yourself. The reporter is Bree A. Dail. VATICAN CITY— Pope Francis condemns surrogacy, “gender theory” and transgender sex change in new document, “Dignitas infinita”. SURROGACY CONDEMNED: 48. The Church also takes a stand against the practice of surrogacy, through which the immensely worthy child becomes a mere object. On this point, Pope Francis’s words have a singular clarity: “The path to peace calls for respect for life, for every human life, starting with the life of the unborn child in the mother’s womb, which cannot be suppressed or turned into an object of trafficking. In this regard, I deem deplorable the practice of so-called surrogate motherhood, which represents a grave violation of the dignity of the woman and the child, based on the exploitation of situations of the mother’s material needs. A child is always

Keep an Eye on the Weather Monday

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Here is my interpretation of the SPC forecast for Monday and Monday night.  I continue to be quite concerned about the potential for tornadoes Monday afternoon and night. The area within the dashed line is where hail 2" in diameter or larger is forecast to occur.  Now is the time to make sure your tornado shelter area is ready to go: Clear out the cobwebs, make sure you have fresh batteries for your flashlight.  If you have an old pair(s) of shoes, put them in your shelter. If the worst happens, you won't want to walk through jagged metal, exposed nails and other debris.  Add a couple of bottles of fresh water. If appropriate put a couple of diapers in your shelter. And, insure you have at least three ways to get warnings.  Fresh batteries for your weather radio, updated storm warning app for your smartphone.  Insure WEA alerts are activated on your smartphone.  There is some chance of severe thunderstorms farther east on Tuesday but it is too soon to attempt to nail that down

Wichita - On a Roll!

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After being named fourth best city in the U.S ., our Tallgrass Film Festival has been named 5th best in the United States. 

Tornado Safety Advice Before an Active Weather Week

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Next week looks very active from the Great Plains into the Midwest While I disagree a shelter is better than being in a basement in a closet or under heavy furniture (e.g., pool table), the above is a good guide.  This is something have taken care of this weekend if you don't already have at least three ways to get warnings. 

Never, Never, Never Use an Underpass as a Tornado Shelter

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Above is a screen shot from the trailer for the movie, Twisters . That, and the next scene, indicate the characters are going to get under the overpass for shelter. That is a terrible idea. The wind accelerates under bridges which makes them more  hazardous, That isn't theory, people have been killed in this way. With more tornadoes in the forecast beginning early next week, it is essential not to follow this bad advice. 

Preliminary: Beware of Tornado Potential Monday

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The computer models for Monday are concerning. However, this far out (five days), a tool known as analog matching can be equally or more useful. And, without getting too deep into the weeds, the matches are some of the most prolific tornado days in the history of the Great Plains.  So, if you haven't already, set aside some time this weekend, to make sure your tornado safe place is ready to go, especially in Kansas and Oklahoma.  Please also consider the story of what happens when the tornado warning system fails as it did 12 years ago in Joplin with the loss of 161 people. The paper copies sold out very quickly so we priced the online version very inexpensively at $2.99 . Finally, the special on my book Warnings  sold out (thank you!) but it is still very attractively priced at $15.33 (bookstore price $24.95). Of course, I will keep you informed in the run-up to next week -- which appears to be very active. 

Today's Tornado Risk

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There is an enhanced  risk of tornadoes in the yellow area. There is a significant risk in the brown area.  There is also a tornado watch in effect for Florida that I am covering on Twitter. 

Unbelievable! The National Weather Service Cannot Pay Its Bills

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The National Weather Service (NWS) – a truly essential federal agency --  literally  cannot pay its bills, according to Bloomberg . Some vendors may have to wait a year before getting paid!  As we saw last night and earlier today with extensive tornado (example below) and flood damage from Texas to Florida that caused more than 700,000 people to lose power, the NWS is essential to save lives, avert property loss, and provide the atmospheric and oceanic data needed for personal safety, commerce, and science across the Nation and the World.  Lake Charles this morning   Slidell, MS Tornado this morning Nevertheless, the NWS, from my observations, is troubled agency. The unpaid bill and other issues are significantly worse than described in the article. For example, ·        The water was turned off for a day at the NWS office that serves the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex. ·        The  essential  weather balloons at Del Rio, Texas, were interrupted for four months. What happens when a radar