Unsurprising. Just wanted to follow up now that it is official.  Above is from the San Antonio  Express-News. 

Big Climate has been working overtime to crank out the press releases after Hurricane Melissa. They would have you believe it is gloom and doom regarding humanity and weather-related disasters. The opposite is true. Dr. Cliff Mass has the details as to how deaths related to extreme weather are plummeting. 

Tonight is the 50th anniversary of the sinking of Edmund Fitzgerald,  an ore ship, in the Great Lakes, It was immortalized by Gordon Lightfoot's outstanding song of the same name . The lyrics (at the link as the song is sung) are meteorologically correct.  If you are unfamiliar with this tragedy, take a few minutes to listen to the song. It will stay with you. 

The snow has eased off in Chicagoland and there is only one intense snowband coming off Lake Michigan. Weather conditions at O'Hare and Midway are fine and there are no major delays at this time.

What may be a record November snow event has just begun. This will unquestionably affect O'Hare and Midway (not to mention the issues with air traffic control due to the government shutdown) and may affect Amtrak.  Updated Snowfall Amount Forecast Current conditions in South Bend by Connor Croft. --- original post --- The area in pink has a winter storm warning. Purple is a winter weather advisory (lesser condition). The area around Waukegan has a winter storm watch. Thundersnow is possible.  As much as 18 inches  with drifting is possible. Please factor this into your travel plans. 

As much as 6 inches of precipitation (rain + the moisture content of snow) is forecast in the Sierra of California) during the next five days.  Given the rain they've already had the past 30 days, it equates to an early start to the California rainy season. 

It is snowing hard in parts of northwest Iowa. The red near Des Moines is sleet. A taste of winter. 

The cold air is beginning to sweep south.

Tornado watch for Middle and parts of East Tennessee as well as adjacent area of southern Kentucky and northern Alabama  --- original post ---- Central Tennessee will have a significant risk of tornadoes later today. The area in brown, including Nashville, has a significant risk of tornadoes. Please pay attention to the weather later today for likely watches and possible warnings.  Note: if you are in a hotel and a tornado warning is issued, take shelter in a hallway, preferably on a lower floor. 

It will be important to test your furnace before the cold wave arrives as well as to insure your pets are cared for. There will be quite a bit of snow in the usual "lake effect" areas.  P.S. I note that some NWS products are not available this afternoon. I do not know if it is because of the government shutdown or because of other problems. Companies like AccuWeather are not shut down and will continue to produce their products on their normal schedules. 

I agree with probably 80% of this and it is well worth your time. 

Enjoy the mild weather while you can. Here are the forecast highs for Sunday. 

With the death toll now 9 12 and expected to rise, I noticed a similarity in video of yesterday's crash of the UPS flight bound for Honolulu yesterday and the Concorde crash in Paris July 25, 2000. The UPS jet is above. It appears either the engine or the left wing fuel tank was on fire.  In the case of the Concorde ,the left wing fuel tank was on fire. The fuel tank had been penetrated by a piece of debris that had been fallen off a Continental Airlines plane that departed immediately before.  By no means am I saying the UPS jet crash had the same cause. I am pointing out that it is something investigators should look into.  Update: The NTSB arrived on the scene this morning. It will their job to sort through the theories and the evidence and make a determination as to the cause of the accident and what can be done to prevent a recurrence. 

WDAF TV's (Fox 4 Kansas City) Chief Meteorologist Joe Lauria interviewed me last month for his podcast. You can find it at WDAF+ on Roku, Apple TV or Fire TV. Hope you enjoy watching. 

The Telegraph  is hardly a conservative newspaper. You will find this story to be of vital interest .  The Nation of Uganda is one of the worst in one of recent world history. Christians are being slaughtered. People starving. "Do gooders" making their lives miserable.  As we have pointed out on a number of occasions, far too much 'climate' money has gone to rich, well-connected political donors. As the Telegraph  writes: The Telegraph can reveal that taxpayer money has also been spent on programmes accused of human rights abuses and for solar panels for one of the world’s richest hotel chains. Much of the money spend on climate programs is grift. Wind power is a terrible boondoggle not to mention the hugely expensive batteries and transmission wires that wind power proponents want to paper over the times the wind is too light (6 mph or less) to turn the wind turbines. It is a meteorological fact  winds are often calm or too light when it is very cold and very h...

Well, the Chiefs lost to the Bills 28-21 this evening, so I thought it would be a good time to celebrate a subpar Chiefs effort with a subpar original Dad joke by a Chiefs' fan.... What did Rashee Rice say to the football when #1 deflected the ball into his hands? "I'm not Worthy....I'm not Worthy...I'm not Worthy.  You are welcome. I'm sure Mahomes & Company will do better next week. 

Do you get the impression these days that physicians are more interested in collecting info they can sell to Google (see here and many others) than useful data in treating their patients? That thought occurred to me when I recently filled out a form for a doctor's office that had a "new computer system." While I am one of just 9% of the population that is (primarily) left-handed, I hardly consider it a disease.  Sheesh.

Let's hope. 

If genuine, this change of heart and mind is most welcome. Yes, climate change is a clear issue that requires intelligent responses (wind and solar ≠ intelligent responses) like nuclear energy, especially the next generation of nuclear reactors. Hopefully, it also means that he will abandon his generous climate "geoengineering" projects. 

Melissa is a Cat 3 with 105 mph winds. A hurricane warning is in effect for Bermuda. Hurricane conditions are expected on the island tonight.  Here is the path of hurricane force winds (brown) to the present time.

Here's the 11am forecast: Below is a map of where hurricane force winds have occurred to this point. 

Who did this? How? Of course, since it is impossible those questions aren't even posed, let alone answered. One of hundreds of similar tweets in my feed Oh my, Hurricane Melissa has brought the eccentrics out. Please let me state the following: No hurricane has ever been caused by climate change. Period.  Melissa will not suddenly strengthen and be "steered" into Florida by the United Nations' "Smart City" program.  "We did this" [humans caused Melissa] was stated by dozens of people. Evidently, that is an Official Big Climate Talking Point™. No, we didn't. Humans don't/can't cause hurricanes! We wouldn't even know how. HAARP did not cause Melissa. HAARP does not influence weather.  No hurricane has ever been "manmade." Trump did not steer Melissa into Jamaica to "get hold of its rare earth minerals." Does Jamaica even have rare earth minerals? Yes, there are patents for "weather control," including on...

The latest forecast, which hasn't changed much, is below. The storm restrengthened over water this evening and will slam into southeast Cuba Wednesday morning.  The map below, in brown, shows the area that has experienced hurricane force (>75 mph winds). ---- Within the past half-hour, the center of Melissa exited the coast of Jamaica just east of Montego Bay. The winds have "weakened" to a still severe 145 mph and the pressure has risen to 906 mb. The storm should be roughly this intensity or a little weaker when it arrives in Cuba.  From Cuba, Melissa is forecast to sweep through the Turks & Cacaos Islands as well as the eastern Bahamas. There is also a hurricane watch for Bermuda.  1:05pm. Landfall officially occurred at 1:03pm EDT. Based on Hurricane Hunter data, wind gusts to 200 mph possible in higher elevations of Jamaica near the coast.  12:45am. Winds are 185 mph (!) and the central pressure is 892mb (!). The eye is moving inland through southwest Jam...

11:10pm. Updated NHC forecast and warnings.  Red = hurricane warnings.  8:10pm. I think the Hurricane Center is being conservative with Melissa's eye winds. They are clearly at least 180 mph. The storm has been drifting very slowly to the southwest  the past couple of hours   which was not forecast. The farther west the eye moves, the better it would be for Jamaica so please offer some prayers this trend continues. I'd love for the purple line below to be the most correct or even to the west.  1:48pm. Melissa's winds are now 175 mph  -- one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes in history.  1:30pm. Melissa has made the north turn. Below are forecast paths of the center from the most trustworthy models. The strongest winds will be along and to the east of the actual path. Mountains increase the amount of rain. Here is a topographic map of the Island of Jamaica. The mountains are somewhat lower on the west side of the island than in the east. The highest ...

[1:15a Monday]   This is the most powerful hurricane in its presentation on satellite that you will probably ever see in the Atlantic. The (hard to discern) lightning around the eye indicates additional strengthening. I have placed an arrow pointing to the northeast coast of Jamaica. I suspect winds are now in the 160mph range or even a little stronger but we won't know because the midnight Hurricane Hunter aircraft has apparently had to turn back (reason unknown).  [6:20p] As anticipated, the strengthening of Melissa resumed this afternoon and it now appears it will reach Cat 5 intensity. [4:20p] Based on satellite and aircraft Hurricane Hunter data, Melissa has sustained winds of 150 mph around the eye and the pressure has dropped at least another 4 mb during the past four hours. The storm has moved straight west since 11am. See the guidance below. This will likely be a catastrophic storm for Jamaica. Here is what the Jamaica Observer is saying about the storm .  Image ...