Here are the latest National Weather Service winter weather messages: Violet = ice storm warning. Power outages expected along with fallen trees.  Pink = winter storm warning  Dark Blue = winter weather watch (extended into New England and south to Atlanta and Columbia, SC). Purple = winter weather advisory Snow Amount Forecast The output of the noon models, which has the benefit of the morning Hurricane Hunter data plus additional weather balloons launched by the NWS has generally upped the amounts of snow. I think this forecast -- which is calling for heavier amounts than the earlier version -- looks good.  Freezing Rain Forecast Below are recommendations for areas where heavy ice accumulations are forecast.  The purple on the map, in this case, equals a "4" on the Sperry-Piltz Ice Damage Index which translates to: Safety Recommendations:  Traveling any distance will be difficult to impossible. If you have a chain saw, fill it with fuel. Get prescriptions refi...

Violet = Ice Storm Warning.  Pink = Winter Storm Warning.  Dark Turquoise = Winter Storm Watch.  Purple = Winter Weather Advisory  The violet color from northeast Louisiana to southern Tennessee is a rare ice storm warning. It means there is the likelihood of major power outages as well as downed trees.  Traveling any distance will be difficult to impossible. If you have a chain saw, fill it with fuel. Get prescriptions refilled. Fill your car's tank with petrol or electric charge. If you have a gas can (used for your lawn mower, etc.), fill it if you have a gasoline or diesel car/truck. If you have chains, use them.  Get extra cash (ATM's and electronic checkout systems don't work without power) Prepare a "go-kit" in case you need to evacuate due to an extended power outage. If so, remember to close the valve where water comes into the house.  If you have a generator, fill it with gasoline or kerosene. Remember: if you have a portable generator, keep ...

The dark blue = winter storm watches.  Pink = (the first of many) winter storm warning Purple = winter weather advisory  Sand = wind advisory  I will be updating the forecast early tomorrow afternoon. This will be after NWS/NOAA drops more weather instruments from aircraft to improve the models' diagnosis of the storm and then their forecasts. 

I continue to forecast major snow and ice storm roughly in between I-70 on the north and I-20 on the south. The forecast track of the storm has moved north since yesterday.  Note: I have comments on the meteorology behind this forecast at the bottom.  The winter storm will begin Friday in the southern Great Plains and then spread rapidly east.  The Ice Storm Potential For those who have never experienced a major ice storm, they can do damage on the order of a tornado but over a larger geographic area. Power failures in major ice storms are extensive and can last for days or even weeks.  Here is the best available forecast of freezing rain accumulation. The amounts from this system can be a little on the high side but generally they are reasonable. These amounts are more than sufficient for significant power outages! The NWS system for judging the greatest ice storm danger is in the red area. However, I believe the risk is just as high in North Carolina and Virgi...

The dark blue is winter storm watches in effect from New Mexico to West Virginia and North Carolina. These pertain to the late week and weekend storm. I will have my forecast updated late this afternoon.  Regardless, please factor these forecasts into your plans. 

Orange = blizzard warning Purple = winter weather advisory Gold = high wind warning Sand = wind advisory 

This is a weather event for which preparations are absolutely necessary: ice storm, heavy snow, and prolonged extreme cold.  2014 South Carolina ice storm Please note: freezing rain (glaze ice) is forecast to fall in significant amounts at the airline hubs in Dallas, Atlanta, Charlotte with significant snow in Washington D.C. If you are planning to fly to those cities (or others in the winter storms maps) I would plan to arrive Friday morning or before or  would get on the phone to reservations and re-route around those hubs. Otherwise, the possibility exists of being stranded for days. Special update regarding the Hurricane Hunter's role in this serious storm at the bottom. Storm Timing This is a forecast radar for 4am Friday as the storm is getting started. Over Arkansas to the Tennessee River the precipitation may still be aloft and not actually begin for a few more hours.  Winter Storm Watches It is rare winter storm watches are issued more than 48 hours in advance bu...

1950's news cruiser From 1971 to 1975 when I worked in Oklahoma City I broadcast the weather for WKY Radio which was a rock 'n roll station that also provided high quality news and, especially, weather (the station's owner, E. K. Gaylord was a fanatic about his stations' providing the very best weather coverage).  I had reason recently to look up OKC radio stations and was pleased to learn WKY is still on the air as "The Sports Animal." Today is its 106th birthday. Many more, WKY!!

An Arctic air mass will move moving south through the Lower 48 starting Wednesday and much of the nation east of the Rockies will be extremely cold into next week.  Forecast Low Temperatures Sunday: Forecast Low Temperatures Monday: A Preliminary Look at Forecast Snow Friday Through Monday Night: The pink begins with 6" amounts. Please keep these preliminary forecasts in mind as you make your plans, especially for next weekend. 

Climate Central, a Big Climate advocacy organization, has released its version of the discredited NOAA "Billion Dollar Disasters" product. It purports to catalog disasters that have caused a billion or more of disasters. Except it doesn't. Their map is below.  Look closely at these "disasters." All but three are multi-day and multi-region mashups of different types of storms to create "disasters." I have added arrows to several items in the West to help illustrate my point. To compare: The Joplin Tornado was a billion dollar disaster. Hurricane Helene was a billion dollar disaster. "North Central & Central Severe Storms" over a six day  period aren't even close. In their fine print, Climate Central acknowledges that some of the rising cost are due to "socioeconomic" trends (example: expensive mansions built in the path of Florida hurricanes).  Plus, all of these are weather , not climate, disasters. This especially true of ...