Sunday, February 28, 2021

Update on Flooding Threat - 11pm

Here is the likelihood of flash flooding between now and 8 am Monday.

A moderate risk of flash flooding is nothing to sneeze at. If you live in that area, please do not cross flooded areas by car and do have a "go kit" so you can quickly evacuate. 

Updated radar 10:53pm:
Orange polygons are flash flood warnings. The arrows show the direction of movement of the rain. Obviously, more moderate to heavy-intensity rain will fall in the flood areas during the night.

As of 9:28pm, the radar still indicates the area with the highest flooding risk may receive an additional 1-3 inches of rain during the night. A few spots have already had nearly 8 inches. 
Please monitor the weather in your area if you live in the "moderate risk" area. Turn on the "government notifications" on your smartphone and take it to bed with you if you live in a flood-prone area. 

11pm. Last update of the night. 

Update on Tornado and Flood Threat

Where the tornado threat is greatest.

Updated watches and warnings as of 6:40pm:

Color code:
  • Magenta = flash flood warning. North of Nashville, these are at or over "flash flood emergency" levels. Do not travel tonight. Be prepared to evacuate at a moment's notice.
  • Greens = various flood warnings and watches.
  • Yellow = tornado watch.
  • Amber = severe thunderstorm warning.
  • Dark pink = severe thunderstorm watch. 

Tornado and Flood Threat Today and Tonight

 As of 10:25am, here is the flood threat area we've been forecasting for the past week.

  • Red is a flash flood warning. Immediate action needed if you live in a flood-prone area and -- whatever you do -- don't try to cross a flooded area by foot or by car. 
  • Greens are various flood watches or warnings.
UPDATED: New flash flood outlook as of 10:52am. 

The area of rain now developing over Texas and Oklahoma will move east and north
over the area now experiencing flooding and will worsen the situation by tonight. 

And, there is a significant risk of tornadoes this afternoon and tonight in the brown area.

And, finally, there is a risk of very large hail ( ≥ 2") in the hatched area this morning and afternoon.

This includes Dallas, Sulfur Springs, Isabel, Texarkana and Arkadelphia. 

Sunday Story for Black History Month

Dockum was the first civil rights sit-in
Dockum Sit-In Memorial

Two of the most important milestones in the civil rights movement occurred in Kansas. They were Brown v Board of Education in Topeka and the Dockum Sit-In in Wichita. The former is well known and well documented. The latter was the first civil rights sit-in but is barely known nationally. I've often wondered if that was because it was both non-violent and successful. Not only were the Dockum Rexall Drug Stores in Wichita opened to blacks, the entire Rexall Chain (a big deal in that era) in Kansas desegregated. I highly recommend this piece on the sit-in. 

The building that contained the lunch counter is pictured above. The memorial is in a "pocket park" a few steps to the west. Next time you are in Wichita, it is well worth a visit. 

Friday, February 26, 2021

Flood Threat Continues in Mid-South

The flood threat continues in the Mid-South region. This is the radar at 9:45am.

Because of COVID, we are just getting a chance to meet our new grandson. Blogging may be less frequent than usual the next few days. I invite you to scroll down because there is a great deal of content the last week. 

Thursday, February 25, 2021

Thoughts About My Genesis G80

Since Tiger Woods' terrible crash in a Genesis GV80, I've been asked -- many times -- what I think of my Genesis G80. Tiger was driving the 2021 GV80 which is the hatchback version. I have a 2020 G80 which is pictured above and I have driven the 2021 version. 

I grew up in a Ford family. My grandfather, father, and brothers and sisters were part of my family of Ford dealers. Ford was one of our major clients at AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions. I was very happy with my Taurus sedans. Unfortunately, Ford decided to stop making sedans so I shopped elsewhere. After test driving cars all over Wichita, I decided to purchase the Genesis. 

Now, to answer the questions I have been asked, in no order,

  • It drives and rides better than any car I've ever driven. As an extremely frequent car renter for business (Hertz's President's Circle), I've driven more than a dozen makes of cars. The G80 is the best. I also was impressed by the G90. 
  • While the ride is great, the #1 reason I purchased the G80 was its incredible safety features. I'm very impressed by those and, yes, I frequently use the intelligent cruise control that has been mentioned in several articles. It is great. 
  • The warranty is one of the best in the industry.
  • Genesis' "connected services" is fine and I've used it once. It is good that the car can connect with them, in case of emergency, without using my cell phone. That said, I can take or leave that type of service.
  • Genesis brings you a loaner when your car is getting an oil change or other maintenance. They bring your car back freshly cleaned, inside and out.
  • Finally, my dealer, Genesis of Wichita, is just incredible. Highly recommended. 
I purchase cars for the long haul. I had my last Taurus for seven years before I was struck by a hit-and-run driver. I plan to keep the G80 for a long time and, so far, it appears to be an excellent value. 

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

Latest Palmer Drought Index and Flood Outlook

Palmer Drought Index

This data is for the week ending January 19. While some rain occurred, the drought west of the Continental Divide continues with only slight improvement. Unfortunately, below normal precipitation is expected in the West the next seven days. 

Extremely wet conditions continue from Delaware to the Carolinas and then west to the Ark-La-Tex region. I'm sorry to report that forecast rainfall continues to be heavy over the next five days and likely beyond. 

The above map is from now until 6pm CST Wednesday, March 4. Significant rainfall may occur the week after. Here is the 8 to 14 day outlook valid from March 3 to 9.
Please note the above normal rainfall from the Ozarks to the Middle Atlantic region. So, if you live in a low-lying area or an area prone to flooding, now is the time to begin preparations. Here are some suggestions:
  • Put together a "go kit." This should include items (photo albums and other valuables) that can fit in your car. 
  • Keep your car in condition to leave on short notice. Make sure it has plenty of fuel. 
  • Don't allow prescription medicines to run out. 
  • Learn where to turn off water and electricity in case you should have to evacuate. 
  • Make sure school buses do not drive through flooded areas. 
Please keep up on local weather and river forecasts. Addition: The National Weather Service in Nashville is also concerned about flooding and they have passed along a link to monitor middle Tennessee Rivers. Just click here

The "Emissions-Free" Fantasy of Electric Cars

 The Wall Street Journal used to know better than this.

There is no such thing as an "emissions free" electric car unless the electricity is hydroelectric or nuclear. If your electricity is generated natural gas or coal, the emissions are obvious. If the electricity is generated by wind turbines there are still emissions. Why? Because they are so unreliable that natural gas generators are run in the background to go online at a moments' notice. 

After what happened in Texas and in other parts of the South (power failures due to ice storms), do you really want to put all of your fuel eggs in the electricity basket?

Coronavirus: A Race Against Time

We being told there are more virulent versions of the coronavirus threatening to spread across the United States. The best way to damp them down is with vaccinations but the effort continues to badly stumble. Per NBC News:

Pharmacists at Inova Health, one of the largest hospital systems in the Washington, D.C., area, say they started noticing significant amounts of leftover vaccine in almost every vial, even after they used the additional sixth doses in Pfizer's vials. But because of the FDA's regulations, they are being forced to throw out any extra vaccine.

"It's heartbreaking for us," Massiah-White said. "We've had multiple team members that rotate through here, and at least daily somebody says, 'Why can't we pool the waste?'

The Inova pharmacists did an experiment, taking 100 vials that had residual vaccine. Eighty of them had significant amounts left over. The pharmacists found that with the vaccine left in the 80 vials, they could make 40 additional full doses. That meant that on a typical vaccination day, when the hospital will typically give more than 4,000 shots, it could give an additional 400 vaccination shots with the same supply.

"Ultimately, when there are enough vaccines, wasting some at the bottom won't matter," Jones said. "But right now, we are millions of doses short. So a few extra doses from each set of vials will make a difference in literally hundreds of people a day."

This exchange sums up the situation well.

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Extreme Concern About Southeast Flooding

The forecasts continue to indicate excessive rainfall in the already wet Southeast.

Seven Day Forecast

This is the National Weather Service's official forecast of rainfall for the next seven days. Five inch amounts are widespread over central and western Tennessee and immediately adjacent areas. 

15-Day Forecast

The bright blue represents forecasts of more than ten inches of rain over the next 15 days from the European global model. 

Given the already wet conditions, there will be flooding and the flooding may be major in some locations.

If you live in a low-lying area or an area prone to flooding, now is the time to begin preparations. Here are some suggestions:
  • Put together a "go kit." This should include items (photo albums and other valuables) that can fit in your car. 
  • Keep your car in condition to leave on short notice. Make sure it has plenty of fuel. 
  • Don't allow prescription medicines to run out. 
  • Learn where to turn off water and electricity in case you should have to evacuate. 
  • Make sure school buses do not drive through flooded areas. 
I'll continue to update this situation. 

Recommend Governor Kelly and the Legislature Reconsider Wind Power in Kansas

I recommend Governor Laura Kelly and the
Kansas Legislature reconsider wind energy in our state.
Kansas gets nearly 40% of its electricity from wind. To me, that is dangerously high. Now, Gov. Kelly wants to add more? Given catastrophe in Texas has proven the point of wind's critics -- that it cannot be depended upon when it is needed the most -- I would urge the State of Kansas to quickly reconsider. 

Wind energy has a use, especially in very dry areas. However, 40% seems plenty. The state should declare a moratorium on new construction. 

Monday, February 22, 2021

Oprah: Global Warming, "Sweat the Small Stuff"

It is hilarious to me that Oprah, who has spent a great team of time over the years instructing us about cutting our carbon footprints. Here is just one example from her magazine

We are supposed to adjust our thermostats, for example, while Oprah...
While I don't blame President Biden, it seems that the celebrities are more confident that they will not be called at as hypocrites during his administration. 

-- Late Update --

Of course, this will mean another trip on her $70 million jet.

The Texas Mess Is Nowhere Near Over

The hypothermia death toll continues to mount.

Unlike when a tornado strikes a home and causes damage, first responders do not know where to look for people who may have suffered from hypothermia from the outside. This may be a long process.

Water problems are not solved.
This story will be unfolding for at least another week.

Sunday, February 21, 2021

Thank You for the Biggest Week in Our History!

We've had more than 100,000 views this week. That's even more than during Hurricane Sandy. Thanks to all of you. 

50th Anniversary of 20th and 21st Century's Worst Blizzard in the Central Plains

Today is the 50th anniversary of the worst blizzard in the history of Wichita, Amarillo, Dodge City, Woodward and a number of other Great Plains' cities. I have an article for meteorologists in the current issue of the National Weather Association's newsletter

For two weeks, the Air National Guard
in three states frantically dropped hay to 
stranded cattle

This afternoon is the 50th anniversary of what some call the 6th worst tornado outbreak in U.S. history. 

In those days, radar was black and white and had to be viewed in a darkened room. There are three tornadoes northwest of Jackson, MS on that above radar image. It was far more difficult then to detect tornadoes on radar and, per the National Weather Service's after-action report, the tornado warnings were of high quality. 

After the extraordinary cold and winter storms of last week, it is important to realize that extreme weather can occur regardless of global temperatures. 

Sunday Fun II: Great News About the Vaccine

These are incredible! We'll have this whipped in no time. I think the herd immunity estimates of late April are reasonable. 

Sunday Fun: "9 Years to Save the Planet!!"

Babylon Bee is a satire site
In 2013, I posted a blog piece, Tipsy From Tipping Points , pertaining to the absurd "tipping points" provided to us by climate 'science' that are intended to intimidate us into increasing our cost of living and decreasing our freedom on the altar of global warming.

Now, John "I'm Too Good to Fly Commercial" Kerry is telling us the Texas cold was caused by global warming and that we just have nine years to save the planet. The entire piece, including his video, is here.

Given his Alaskan-sized carbon footprint, his yachts (yes, plural), his multiple homes, John Kerry lecturing us about Co2 gets this week's "Sunday Fun."

Saturday, February 20, 2021

As We Approach Tornado Season 2021....

If there was ever a week that demonstrated the vital importance of 
weather forecasts and storm warnings, we just lived it. 

Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather takes you behind the scenes as meteorologists warn of some of the most dangerous storms of the last 80 years. It is written in the style of a novel and has 4.7 stars at Amazon after 77 reviews. 

If you'd like to get a taste of the book, you can read the first chapter at no cost, no obligation and no credit card number, here. It is the first chapter. 

If you would like to know more about the book or to purchase Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather just click on the turquoise link. 

The Week Wind Energy Combusted

 From today,


 Evidently, sophisticated California doesn't know that calling a woman with a degree in meteorology is not a "weather girl." Nor, is it a "weather woman." Like a male with a meteorology degree, that person is a meteorologist. 

Why You Don't See Anyone's 30-Day and Longer Forecasts on This Blog

While meteorology has made tremendous strides in forecasting storms and extreme weather the last quarter-century, the lack of progress in longer range forecasting is a real embarrassment. That's why we don't show long-range forecasts on the blog. 

Friday, February 19, 2021

Heads Up: Southeast United States

I'm getting increasingly concerned about the potential for major flooding in the Southeast 

The Palmer Drought Index (below) shows shows extremely wet conditions from eastern Oklahoma to

the Middle Atlantic region. 

The computer models are indicating wet and, perhaps, extremely wet conditions over the next two weeks -- and, especially -- February 25 to March 3. 
Of course, two week rainfall forecasts can be way off the mark. But, this is a potentially serious situation and I wanted to give my readers a "heads up."

Notice for Pet Owners

FEMA: As Always, Days Late and Billions Short

Speaks for itself. 

Herd Immunity By April!!

Some terrific news today in the fight against coronavirus.

More on the Texas Electricity Catastrophe

If you are a certain age, you remember the anti-littering campaign, Don't Mess With Texas. Well, as we learn more and more about the simultaneous catastrophe and fiasco of the past six days, we can conclude that Texans can mess up Texas without any help from those of us in the other 49 states. 

I wrote about the organized campaign to make you think the collapse of wind power as the wet and extremely cold weather was a trivial concern, here. Since then, two important pieces have been published that shed light on what will likely be (when all costs are tabulated) among the top five natural disasters in the history of our nation:

  • Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr., has found that ERCOT (the non-profit, independent agency that runs the Texas electric grid) based its "worst case scenario" on temperatures that occur, on average, just every ten years. As Roger points out, most industries use a once in one-hundred or once in five-hundred year interval when building against a "worst case."
  • Dr. Judith Curry has posted a piece by Planning Engineer (PE) on how the system failed in Texas. PE is a pseudonym for a person working in the electric utility industry who reports the facts of the industry rather than the facts laundered by political correctness. I have followed his reporting for years and it is excellent. 
In reading the piece by PE and others, you will see the term "energy market" versus "capacity market." It is a somewhat difficult concept, so an analogy might help: if you want to be able to hear pleasant sounds whenever you want to hear them, would you invest in wind chimes or an iPod? Most everyone would answer, "iPod" because you can turn it on and off when you wish and set the volume to whatever level you like. Here's how that analogy plays into the Texas energy market,
  • In an energy market, you get paid simply by generating electricity whether it is needed or not.
  • In a capacity market, you get paid by generating electricity when it is needed.
The wind chimes would be an energy market because you get what you get. No control or reliability. The capacity market would be the iPod. 

Big Climate likes an "energy market" because it makes solar and wind look less expensive. We consumers want a capacity market because we want to be able to turn on a lamp or thermostat and get light and heat when we want it. Unfortunately, as is too often the case in today's America, we consumers do not count much in today's highly-regulated and political energy market. Utilities don't fight against wind turbines and other nonsense because they are expensive and in an "energy market" they are paid on a percentage of their costs. Would you rather get 7% of a million dollars or 7% of a billion dollars?

While on the subject of propaganda and global warming, Monday afternoon I posted:

To wrap up: I'm certain that, somewhere on Madison Avenue in NYC, press releases are being written to blame this record cold on global warming. 

Since then, as predictably as the sun rising in the east,

And, others. The MSM takes its marching orders from the NYT, WaPo and the various progressive groups and they all fall in line. 

This last one (from the 14th) is especially amusing....
...since just eleven months ago the BBC was telling us this about global warming.
The Beeb's forecast wasn't any better in England,
Of course, "global warming causes more extreme cold" doesn't even pass the laugh test. 

Have a great day!!