Global Warming Protest Cancelled by Snowstorm

Was Al Gore there?

Anthony Watts' account of the global warming protest defeated by a blizzard is hilarious.
A downtown [Salt Lake City] protest of the climate change talks in Copenhagen became a victim of Wednesday’s snowstorm. “Not many people showed up because of the blizzard conditions,” said organizer Clea Major, an international studies student at the University of Utah.


This wasn't the first time this has happened.  From earlier this year...

Driving snow froze the hopes of organizers of "the biggest global warming protest in history" Monday in Washington. With the government on a two-hour snow delay and the speaker of the House unable to attend because her flight was grounded by inclement weather, shivering protestors gathered on the west front of the Capitol, the latest victims of a climatological phenomenon known by the scientific community as the Gore Effect.

The Gore Effect was first noticed during a January 2004 global warming rally in New York City, held during one of the coldest days in the city's history. Since then, evidence has mounted of a correlation between global warming activism and severely cold weather.  More here.

This brings up several questions:  Do these organizers not believe the weather forecast?  If not, why do they believe the weather ("climate") forecasts for decades in the future?  And, if you want to demonstrate problems from excessive heat, why keep scheduling these in the winter?

More Thoughts on Airline Security

There is an interesting column about airline security by Bruce Schneier at CNN's web site today. Because of my interest in "low probability/high impact" events, I have had his web site bookmarked for a long time.  He coined the phrase "security theatre" to describe much of that is done by the TSA. While I don't agree with everything in today's column, I certainly agree with this:

Security is both a feeling and a reality. The propensity for security theater comes from the interplay between the public and its leaders.

When people are scared, they need something done that will make them feel safe, even if it doesn't truly make them safer. Politicians naturally want to do something in response to crisis, even if that something doesn't make any sense.

Often, this "something" is directly related to the details of a recent event. We confiscate liquids, screen shoes, and ban box cutters on airplanes. We tell people they can't use an airplane restroom in the last 90 minutes of an international flight. But it's not the target and tactics of the last attack that are important, but the next attack. 



Now, after we have spent tens of millions on "puffers" to detect bombs only to have them disengaged at many airports, we are now hearing we need to spend many more tens of millions on the "nude machine" also known as "fully body scanners."  Of course, those do not detect items hidden in body cavities, so I can hardly imagine what comes after the nude machine.


I'd like to suggest a different approach.


For some reason, when I was reading about the new security rules last night, I recalled a speech by Winston Churchill:

4 June 1940

"I have, myself, full confidence that if all do their duty, if nothing is neglected, and if the best arrangements are made, as they are being made, we shall prove ourselves once again able to defend our Island home, to ride out the storm of war, and to outlive the menace of tyranny, if necessary for years, if necessary alone.

At any rate, that is what we are going to try to do. That is the resolve of His Majesty's Government-every man of them. That is the will of Parliament and the nation.

The British Empire and the French Republic, linked together in their cause and in their need, will defend to the death their native soil, aiding each other like good comrades to the utmost of their strength.

Even though large tracts of Europe and many old and famous States have fallen or may fall into the grip of the Gestapo and all the odious apparatus of Nazi rule, we shall not flag or fail.

We shall go on to the end, we shall fight in France,
we shall fight on the seas and oceans,
we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our Island, whatever the cost may be,
we shall fight on the beaches, 
we shall fight on the landing grounds,
we shall fight in the fields and in the streets,
we shall fight in the hills;
we shall never surrender,

and even if, which I do not for a moment believe, this Island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the struggle, until, in God's good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old."

Do you believe that if Churchill were President of the U.S. today, he would be putting up with any of this nonsense? President Obama is quite capable of making a speech like this (he is an excellent orator, like Churchill). I'd like to see him deliver it. Its time we stop overreacting to these incidents.

What would I do?

The passengers: Lets dial back airport security to the way it was before 2001 except keep the random bomb detection they do on luggage and carryons. Those on the no-fly list will still not be able to get boarding passes (that is done electronically through computer matching). That's it. No shoe carnival, no "no going to the bathroom the last 60 minutes," no "threat level orange," etc., etc.

Checked bags: The one area where we need improvement is for checked baggage. I am concerned that it is still not sufficiently screened and there have been far too many incidents of TSA people arrested for theft (here  for recent information) from checked bags, that even the TSA acknowledges. If they will steal from the bags, what else might they do?

Otherwise, that's it. Yes, we need a reasonable level of airport security but we have gone well past that level recently.

Sometimes less is more. This is America, "land of the free, home of the brave."  


UPDATE: The New York Times' David Frum seems to agree.  
UPDATE II:  UCLA law professor Steven Bainbridge comes to the same conclusion in an interesting way.  
UPDATE III:  Fixed some broken links.
UPDATE IV:  Interesting article from Great Britain, illustrating the fallacy of chasing each individual threat after the fact:
But Ben Wallace, the Conservative MP, who was formerly involved in a project by a leading British defence research firm to develop the scanners for airport use, said trials had shown that such low-density materials [in the bomber's underwear] went undetected.

Book Update

Greenleaf, my publisher, delivered the proof of the Advance Reader Copy (ARC) to me late yesterday afternoon.  For the first time, I got to see the entire book.  Quite an experience.

The ARC's are sent to buyers for booksellers (i.e., Borders) and to publications that have long lead times.

We expect the ARC's to go to press the first of next week.

Amazon has put a little more information on their site here.  This is just preliminary information, we will have the entire listing populated around the end of January.

Having never written a book before, this has been quite a learning experience.

Updated Palmer Drought Index

Here is NOAA's updated Palmer Drought Index which includes most of the precipitation from the Christmas storm.  See post below regarding spring flooding potential.  Click to enlarge.

One word:  Wow.  I don't recall ever seeing this much green in winter.  I'll continue to keep an eye on the spring flooding potential.

UPDATE:  Wettest two years ever for Missouri.

Danger, Danger

Turns out Dave Barry and my kids are skiing at the same time!  May I suggest everyone else keep far away?

One of Dave's commenters offers this expert advice, Keep the pointy end forward.

Dave says, Notice that I have chosen to hit a slope with an inclination of zero degrees. This is how we older veteran skiers avoid being attacked by gravity, of which there is a large quantity out here.


UPDATE FROM DAVE:  

December 29, 2009

EMERGENCY

I went to the Miami Herald site this morning, and the main story was about the brutal cold wave hitting South Florida:

Today's high: 69 degrees. The wind chill values will make it feel as low as 44 degrees.

Here at the ski area on Pluto we would kill for it to feel like 44 degrees. We would take off our clothes and run around screaming naked. We do this anyway, but that's because of the rum.

Speaking of Wrong Forecasts

I was reading my Wall Street Journal while eating my baked potato and salsa at lunch and saw this headline:

Considering December isn’t even over, that is a rather remarkable headline, especially in view of the record precipitation in much of the Central U.S. the last 2-3 years and in the South in the last two years.  Wichita, St. Louis, New Orleans, and other cities are reporting record or near-record moisture.  The snow removal budgets were supposed to last the entire winter.  Why assume that the snows were going to deviate from this trend?

The thought occurred to me that it is conceivable that some are underestimating the amount of precipitation that might fall because they have been told, over and over, that “global warming” was going to cause less. 

July 23, 2006, Alan Berga of The Wichita Eagle reported that we would have more droughts in Kansas.  But it is water that may be Wichita’s more immediate concern, said Bob Buddemeier, a senior scientist in environmental science with the Kansas Geological Service. "More droughts in western Kansas have already complicated ongoing water shortages in that part of the state," Buddemeier said.  "That danger is more likely to reach Wichita. All in all, I wouldn’t care to be too incredibly optimistic about the future,” he said.

On July 29, 2006, Seth Borenstein of the Associated Press compared that summer’s heat wave to “the 1930’s Dust Bowl” and "the computer models show that soon, we'll get many more -- and hotter -- heat waves that will leave the old Dust Bowl records of the 1930s in the dust, said Ken Kunkel, director of the Center for Atmospheric Sciences at the Illinois State Water Survey.  Of course, the Dust Bowl was the driest period in meteorological records in the central U.S.

As reported below, the scare stories could not have been more wrong:  We are just finishing up the three wettest years in Wichita history. 

But, it is not just Kansas or even the United States. In 2000, the UK’s Independent wrote, However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".

"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.

So, what is today’s paper saying in London?

(thank you, Anthony Watts)

Neither I, nor anyone else, knows what kind of weather the year 2010 will bring.  We have no consistent skill at forecasting the weather beyond about 5 days (and sometimes that if iffy) and zero skill beyond about ten days.  There is no skill -- none -- in forecasting the weather (or 'climate') years in advance.

If I were on a city council, I would be thinking about increasing those snow budgets.  Better to have a few dollars left over at the end of the year if a dry spell hits.

Wet + Wet + Wet Wichita

Wichita has experienced the wettest three consecutive years in its history. Courtesy of the National Weather Service in Wichita, here are the statistics:

1) 2007-2009: 129.25 Inches
2) 1949-1951: 119.52 Inches
3) 1997-1999: 117.15 Inches


And, we may receive an additional few hundredths before 2010 gets here.

Wichita is not the only city that has been wet.  St. Louis may set or be very close to a similar record.

UPDATED on New Year's Eve:  Looks like 129.32" will be the final value because of the light snow that occurred between the original posting and the end of the year.  We are not expecting any additional precipitation between now and midnight.  

Why it is Ridiculous to Make 30-Year Climate Forecasts

On the left is the NOAA 30-day temperature forecast for December, 2009 and on the right is how temperatures have turned out for the first 27 days of the month.

In the forecast, "A" means "above normal" temperatures and B is the reverse.  On the "actual" temperature map, greens/blues/purples are colder-than-normal values.

The forecast could hardly be more wrong.  In eastern Montana, where the highest statistical chance of warmer than average temperature was forecast, temperatures have been 15° below normal!

The purpose of this post is not to criticize NOAA for this forecast but rather to illustrate the folly of pretending we can make skillful 30-year and longer forecasts.  If we have no consistent skill at forecasting monthly and seasonal conditions, we have no skill at forecasting the weather decades into the future.

If you would like to read more on this topic, please go here.


UPDATE December 30:  Great Britain has the same problem with poor seasonal forecasters claiming great confidence in their forecasts for future decades.  More here.


UPDATE December 30, 4pm:  Roger Pielke, Jr. also weighs in on the topic of overly confident climate forecasts.

"Everything That Can Be Invented, Has Been Invented"

A wonderful article about innovation.


And, around 1985, I thought WeatherData's AT&T 3B1 computers with 1 megabyte of memory would be all that we would need for five years or more!  At least I was closer than Bill Gates.

The author is correct:  The more technology accelerates, the more it can accelerate.

President Obama's Katrina Moment?

In my forthcoming book, Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather, I write extensively about what went wrong in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. I have been thinking about the similarities between President Bush’s handling of Katrina and, so far, President Obama’s handling of the attack on Northwest Airlines Flight 253.

First, some background:  I have spent my entire career researching and implementing appropriate responses to “low probability – high impact” events.  A major tornado is a low probability event at any given location and a terrorist attack is a low probability event for any given flight.  But, both will be catastrophic if the right systems are not in place to mitigate the threat.

Based in media reports that the attack on NWA 253 may be part of a larger problem (see here, here, and  here,   for just three examples), it seems that direct Presidential involvement in this situation is appropriate. Hundreds would have died on the Northwest flight if the bomb had detonated.  Hundreds would have been saved if the Bush Administration and local officials had acted appropriately in the immediate aftermath of Katrina.

Given the overwhelmingly negative response to the first President Bush’s handling of Hurricane Andrew and the overwhelmingly negative response to the second President Bush’s handling of Katrina, it would seem politically wise (not to mention consistent with the duties of the office) for President Obama to be personally and publicly involved in his Administration's response to NWA 253 and the additional threats, if any.

What are the comparisons I spoke of?

Presidential location during Katrina?  Bush was vacationing in Crawford.

Presidential location during NWA 253?  Obama vacationing in Hawaii.

Initial public involvement?  Bush:  None.  Obama:  None.

Administration point person?

Bush:  Michael Brown

Obama:  Janet Napolitano

Inappropriate statements by point person?

Brown:  "Can I Go Home?"

Napolitano:  "The system worked."

Counterproductive official response by point person?

Brown:  Sending rescuers to sexual harassment training rather than to New Orleans, and banning private sector assistance that was on the scene almost immediately.

Napolitano:  Banning using the restroom or reading a magazine 60 minutes before landing (more here) and making passengers (who were the "first responders" in NWA 253) stay in their seats, belts fastened, 60 minutes before landing under threat of arrest.

Just like President Bush was blamed for Michael Brown's actions, President Obama will be held accountable for the actions of his administration, for better or for worse.

Were I advising President Obama, I would suggest that he make a statement regarding the specific steps his administration is taking to investigate this attack and minimize the likelihood of additional attacks while, at the same time, working to balance the needs of security versus common sense (a grandmother from Grand Forks reading a magazine 30 minutes before landing is a threat?) and re-evaluating the new rules as quickly as possible.

Punishing passengers (who were the heroes, along with the flight attendants) of NWA 253 makes as much sense as sending trained rescuers to Atlanta for sexual harassment training.

Terrific Illustration of the Climate System's Complexity

When I present my global warming talk I state, "in the laboratory CO2 heats the atmosphere, but the real-world atmosphere is far more complex than the one in the laboratory."  Here is a great article as to why that is.  Note:  Not everything in Willis' discussion is literally true (nor does he intend it to be). But, as an illustration of why CO2 doesn't work in the real atmosphere as it does in the lab, it is excellent.

Article is here.  It is well-written and easy to read.  

Above Normal Early Winter Snow Cover = Major Flooding To Come?

Update:  See below.


For so early in the winter, snow cover is quite extensive (click to enlarge maps):

A concern:  If the above normal snowfall continues, it is going to set up a situation for extensive spring flooding.  The Palmer Drought Index is a weekly index, generated by NOAA, that shows the level of excessive wetness or dryness.  The latest map is from Saturday, December 19th, before the latest storm occurred.

Given the saturated ground in many areas, the latest snow storm significantly increases the potential for spring-melt flooding.  During an El Nino year, the storm track tends to run from California and Arizona through the southern Plains and then into the Middle Atlantic states.  This has been the case this year.  Just two years ago the Southeast was experiencing a major drought and Atlanta was worried about running out of water.  Now, the concern should be flooding.

However, there is some good news here:  There is no widespread severe drought anywhere in the contiguous United States.

WeatherData's and AccuWeather's meteorologists will be watching this closely.

UPDATE: 

We did a little research and looked at El Ninos since 1950 then screened for the El Nino values similar to December 2009's with eye toward any predictive value with regard to spring rains at Wichita's National Weather Service station at Mid-Continent Airport.

Here were the results.  Four years had values approximately equal to 2009's.

1986           135.1% of normal rainfall in spring of 1987  (March through May)
1987           103.5%
1994           125.5%
2002           112.1%

While an admittedly small sample, it would seem reasonable to conclude that greater than normal rainfall is a real possibility this spring, causing further concerns about future flood potential.

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Two Movie Reviews

Up in the Air.  I loved it, Kathleen liked it.  I may have been influenced by how very well they portrayed the experience of being a very frequent flier.

Its Complicated.  Both Kathleen and I loved it.  Its a little slow getting started, but it is very engaging once it gets in gear.

The Titles Say it All

Solar Power Is Wonderful, Really, Except When You Build It Anywhere Near Anything

The Cultural Contradictions of Anti-Nuke Environmentalists



Two stories.  Two more examples of "environmentalists" run amok.  By the way, I have been to the area Sen. Feinstein wishes to preserve.  It is ordinary desert.  

Hat tip:  Instapundit.

Train and "Tornado" and a Rescue -- What's Not to Like?

An old fashioned steam locomotive, The Tornado, powered by coal, rescued railroad passengers when the electric power failed.  Details here.

Climate Modeling

In the wake of Climategate, the spotlight is being shone on climate models.  This article is just one example.

I weighed in on this a few months ago at Anthony Watt's blog. If you'd like to read my comments, click here.  Anthony added the cartoon.  My comments start just below.

Pre-Order is up on Amazon!

I had been told that the preorder would not go up on Amazon until March, but here it is!

Or, if you have 2,357 Yen, it is available in Japan at this link.

To the Tune of "Away in A Manger"

Asleep at an airport, no gate for the plane

The sign said canceled, no one took the blame

The shops were all closed, no place for a beer

It looks like we might, be stuck till next year

Photo by Ft. Worth Star-Telegram.

Christmas Kitties

Merry Christmas!!

At Thanksgiving, I posted about the Grandpuppies.  Now, time for the Grandkitties...

Here are Mary and Brandon's Grant and Lucy

and Sophie,

and, here is Tiffany with Rolen, her roommate Stephanie's cat.

Smithmas Eve Blizzard

Taken from my garage at 9pm.  Moderate falling snow, about 4-5" on the ground, 18°.  Drifts to 1.5 feet.  Hunkered down watching DVDs and enjoying the snow.

Blizzard Warnings Extended

"I had to pull off and go home, snow rate was near 4" hour at one point in Tulsa. Many persons stranded in vehicles. My nephew has been stranded on I-40 west of OKC for 5 hours and national guard has advised them they will be stranded all night." 

"I-90 From Minnesota to Chamberlain SD is closed. I-29 from North Dakota to Nebraska is closed."

Snowfall is really picking up here on the SW side of KC can't say how much snow we have gotten but at least 3" or so. Winds are REALLY cranking now and conditions are getting very worse. I-29 from St. Joe to the Iowa border is shut down.

Official report from NWS at Oklahoma City's Will Rogers World Airport is 14.1" of snow.
 This is the biggest one day snowfall all-time breaking the old record of 11.3 inches set way back on March 19, 1924.

Olney, Texas says the snow has ended with 8" of snow on the ground. This is just west of the 

Fort Worth area. 

2.3 inches has been reported in Dallas almost breaking their record of 2.6 inches of snow in a  single day.

                        ---Reports from StormTrack

Tornadoes caused injuries and widespread damage (including, ironically, destroying a Catholic Church on Christmas Eve) in Louisiana.  Arcadia Parish (parish = county in Louisiana) was particularly hard hit.  

The Star-Telegram said the Dallas-Fort Worth area was experiencing its first White Christmas in more than 80 years. While the area had a sprinkling of holiday snow in 2004 and 1997, the last time it experienced “a true, New England-style dose of snow on Christmas Day was Dec. 25, 1926,” the newspaper reported.

Radar at 10:25pm Christmas Eve

 

Predicted Snowfalls from 6pm Christmas Eve until 11pm Saturday, December 26th

There should be a blizzard warning in effect for the Kansas Flint Hills where 7 to 15 inches with 50 mph winds will occur.  I am getting reports of visibility less than 1/4 mile.  Travel extremely dangerous in those areas.

Note the tornado warning in southeast Misssissippi.  Please keep up on the weather in the yellow tornado watch area!

Here is the 3:42pm winterized AccuWeather Radar (link below), with heaviest snow in the darker blue colors.

This will be my last update as I wish to spend quality time with my family.  I hope this storm updating has been helpful.  Merry Christmas Eve, everyone!!!


Click here for snowfall forecast maps, etc.

Oklahoma Update

First-hand reports from Oklahoma:

2:30pm:  Breaking News: Governor declares Emergency declaration for all 77 counties.  Thanks, Jeff 

3:05pm:  All Interstates closed in Central OK.


3:24pm:  Thundersnow and sleet is now over Coweta moving NW toward Tulsa metro.

I have heavy sleet covering the ground white. The winds gusting to near 50+.

H.E. Bailey Turnpike (I-44) closed from OKC to Wichita Falls.  "Military being dispatched to rescue people stuck on road."

I-35 closed south of Norman, OK.  Whiteout from weathercam at OU meteorology department.

There are reports of one foot accumulations with 3' drifts in the OKC Metro Area.  Report that all flights into OKC are cancelled.  Confirmed, see below.

Major delays at DFW International Airport, increasing in duration.  There is one flight that is eight hours late!

This is the 2:02pm AccuWeather winterized regional radar. The darker blue = heavier snow.  Blizzard conditions are setting up in the Flint Hills of Kansas with winds gusts to 60 mph possible.  Note the snow in the D-FW Metro area.  Reports of heavy snow in Allen.  The darkest blue = the heaviest snow.

2:20pm. Looks like the snow will intensify during the next 3-4 hours in far northern Oklahoma and throughout the Kansas Flint Hills region with very high winds.

This is why this storm has been so difficult to forecast.  This is narrow band of heavy snow (as these things go) and placing its exact location has been very difficult.

TIM TALLEYAssociated Press Writer

2:24 PM CST, December 24, 2009

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) — The Oklahoma National Guard has been activated to rescue motorists stranded in southwestern Oklahoma made nearly impassable by a powerful winter storm.

Oklahoma Turnpike Authority spokesman Jack Damrill says Oklahoma National Guard troops were asked Thursday to travel along the H.E. Bailey Turnpike to rescue motorists stranded by collisions or spinouts on the icy roadway.

Damrill says Oklahoma Highway Patrol troopers have been ordered off the turnpike because of the dangerous conditions. Damrill says heavy snow and strong winds have reduced visibility to zero.

From Oklahoma Highway Patrol at 3:10pm

TROOP A- All interstates in the Oklahoma City Metro area have been shut down due to weather. 12-24-09/1437 TROOP B- All of Troop B ( Tulsa, Rogers, Okmulgee, & Creek Counties, Including the Creek Turnpike) are under a blizzard warning. All Travel is extremely discouraged. All roadways are extremely slick and hazardous. 12/24/2009 1453

Take It Away, Bing...

It is now snowing, sideways, at The Smith House.  Take It Away, Bing (and Marjorie Reynolds)...

Taken at The Smith House at 10:50am Central:

"Zits" courtesy of The Washington Post.

Christmas Eve Blizzard of 2009 Updated

Live Coverage of Snow Storm

My friends, Mike Phelps and Robin Lorenson, are storm chasing in the winter storm.  They are driving from Wichita to OKC on I-35.  The live video stream is here.

Their goal is to get photos of ice and the blizzard.  I don't know how long they will be out, but if you want to see how the road looks at the moment, take a look.

AccuWeather's Flight Planning Tools

If you have never been to AccuWeather's Flight Delay Tool, you are missing a great resource for being proactive when dealing with the airlines.

I just did a screen capture of the indexes for O'Hare and Orlando.  As you can see, Orlando is no problem.  O'Hare on the other hand, has a high chance of delays redeveloping today.  At right are links to additional information.  You can get information here that will usually give you a better idea of what will happen than the information from the airlines.  For example, the airlines will list a flight six hours from now as "on time" even when serious delays are likely.

If you have read my airline travel strategies repeated here with additional advice about waivers here.  Waivers are already in effect for this storm, even in regions where snow or ice haven't begun falling.  

Lets say you have ticket on Delta/Northwest from St. Louis to Washington, D.C. via Minneapolis on Saturday.  With waivers, you can call Delta and say, "reroute me through your Memphis or Atlanta hubs" and you won't have to deal with a potential mess due to the heavy snow in Minneapolis.

Or, lets say you were going from Wichita to Washington via Chicago on United Saturday. I will go out to the airport armed with this information and say, "please send me through Denver (even though it is out of the way) rather than through the snow in Chicago" and they will usually do so.

I'd rather fly two extra hours changing planes in a hub without weather problems than risking huge delays and hassles by flying into a major storm.  And, when waivers are in effect, the airlines will usually go along because they don't want to have to deal with any more upset passengers than necessary.

When it comes to winter storms and airlines, proactive is better.  Arm yourself with information then ask them to go along with your request.  It usually works.

Snow Update

Winds are gusting to 60 mph at a weather station just north of Wichita Falls, TX; 47 mph in Enid, OK; and 47 mph at Jabara Airport in northeast Wichita.  The winds will continue to increase across the Central Plains and Missouri River Valley through tonight.

The models continue all over the map with widely varying forecast amounts.  In Wichita, for example, current model forecasts range from zero to 10."  Here is AccuWeather's forecast map with details here.

Updates from AccuWeather here.  And, great radar coverage is  here.


Please take this storm seriously.  With gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range in many areas, the snow will make travel difficult to impossible.  

Tornado Threat Today

Updated at 12:30pm.  The tornado threat has significantly increased in southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.  Violent tornadoes may occur.  Please keep up on the weather in this region. 

Damaging tornadoes with injuries occurred in east Texas yesterday.  If you live in these areas, please keep up on the weather (I am not going to update this post) during this unseasonal tornado threat.

Merry Christmas, Dave Barry Style

Posted on Dave Barry's blog The Beer Bottle Band's, Do You See What I See.


They are very good, its lots of fun!

The Blizzard of '71

I'm continuing to update the winter weather post, just scroll down.

The Blizzard of 1971 is included in most Top Ten weather event lists for the Great Plains.  If our forecast is correct, then parts of southern Kansas (only, this does not apply to the Panhandles) will rival or exceed the 1971 storm.  Here is what the National Weather Service says about it:

On February 21st, 1971, an intense winter storm crossing the Souther Plains buried Southern Kansas with 10-13 inches of snow. The storm packed such a terrific punch, that gusty north-northeast winds 25-40 mph produced near zero visibility bringing a large portion of Southern Kansas to a standstill. The storm began shortly before daybreak on the 21st with the storm hitting full throttle around 8 AM. The storm unleashed its fury for almost 8 hours before easing up late in the afternoon. However, periods of light snow would continue on through the night and into the morning of the 22nd. When the storm ended around midday on the 22nd, 13 inches of snow had been recorded at Wichita's Mid-Continent Airport, making this one of the five worst snowstorms ever to hit Wichita, dating back to 1888.

The snow amounts weren't all that impressive, but the driving winds caused huge drifts.

When this storm occurred, I was a meteorology student at the University of Oklahoma and I spent most of that Sunday in the met. lab amazed by what I was seeing.  Here is the Oklahoma summary of the storm:

Oklahoma’s extreme snowstorm of record was the blizzard of February 21-23, 1971. This  blizzard buried northwestern Oklahoma under as much as three feet of snow, not accounting for drifts. Buffalo was the hardest hit, reporting 23 inches of snow on the 21st and a state-record snow depth of 36 inches by the morning of the 24th. The snow was driven by winds 30 to 50 miles per hour, producing drifts as high as 20 feet. Military cargo planes were used to airdrop hay to cattle stranded in the far-flung pastures of the region. Losses to agriculture were estimated at $2.1 million (1971 dollars).

Will this storm cause the extreme snows in Kansas?  Very hard to say.  This has been one of the most difficult-to-forecast storms of my career.  There is zero doubt that some areas will have 20" of snowfall driven into drifts by 50 mph winds.  And, there is little doubt that 50 miles to the west of that band, little or no snow will fall.  I have been posting maps showing the extreme contrasts.

We'll know pretty well by this time tomorrow.

The Ultimate Uncertainty

From Cody Charvat, training officer at Sedgwick County, Kansas.  The weather itself is questioning the forecast!  Nothing like a "?" in the cloud formation to highlight Mother Nature torturing us.

Dangerous Winter Storm Outlook

See Update III, 12:40pm Wednesday, at bottom...

Blizzard conditions will spread across Wichita, Topeka, Omaha and Enid during the during the day Thursday (Christmas Eve) and reach Kansas City Thursday night.  With snowfalls ranging from 5 to 20 inches across this region and wind gusts to 50 mph, travel will be dangerous or impossible.  Update IV, 1:55pm Wednesday.  AccuWeather has a graphic of the blizzard area at the link.

Ice storm conditions are likely in a good part of Iowa, northern Illinois and scattered areas of Kansas and Nebraska.  Icing-related accidents have already been reported in western Kansas.  These conditions are moving east.

Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms are possible from east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley.  Update II, 8:45am.  The area from Houston to Shreveport looks especially primed for tornadoes.  Update VII, 2:40pm.  Tornado Watch in Effect!  At this time, a tornado warning in effect south of Tyler, TX.  I am not going to blog on the ongoing tornado threat, please see the AccuWeather radar link.   

And, if all of this is not enough, flooding will likely develop in Arkansas and parts of Missouri.

If the latest data is correct, this will be one of the most vicious winter storms of my career.  AccuWeather is on top of things, as always.  Click on the link for the latest.

Our excellent winterized, decluttered radar is here.

AccuWeather's airline tools are here.  If the ice develops in northern Illinois, don't even think about trying to go through O'Hare or Midway while the storm is in progress.  A guide to proactive airline weather avoidance is here with additional information here.  Update VI, 2pm:  Airline waivers are in effect.  Use them!  United's waivers are here.  You can view other airlines' waivers at their websites.  Use AccuWeather's extended forecasts to determine alternative travel dates then rebook your flight to avoid being stranded in an airport, or worse.  

The bottom line:  Be proactive and travel before or after this storm.  If the forecast is wrong, you'll be safe and you can laugh at me.  But, if the forecast is correct, you will save yourself, at minimum, a tremendous amount of hassle.  And, if you are in an area where freezing rain is forecast, be prepared for power outages, perhaps of extended duration.

Get where you want to be before the storm hits, hunker down, and enjoy watching the white Christmas move in.

UPDATE I, 7:45am Wednesday:  Numerous accidents reported on Interstate 70 in northwest Kansas with as many as 5" of snow on the ground.

UPDATE III:  Snow.  This will be a severe blizzard for the low Plains.  I expect I-35, 70, 80, 90, and 29 to be closed as result of this storm.  Here is the snowfall forecast, keeping in mind that many areas will experience winds of 40 mph or more (with gusts to 55 mph in Kansas) to drive these very heavy amounts of snow.  In south central Kansas, this storm will rival or exceed the "Blizzard of '71."  (see below for ice update)

Ice:  Average delays at O'Hare are now more than two hours.  The map below indicates areas where significant glaze icing is occurring midday Wednesday

A Life Saved

This is a helmet-cam video of a skier buried by an avalanche and rescued.  As the skier begins his run, you can see the snow "fracture" at the tip of his skis which is the beginning of the slide.  Avalanches occur just that quickly.  Always obey safety rules and stay out of "back country."  Avalanche Safety Rules at the link.

Winter Storm Update

UPDATE III, 9:55pm Tuesday:  Blizzard conditions appear likely in Kansas and Nebraska to the East of U.S. 81 starting during the morning Thursday (Christmas Eve).  

It also appears likely that travel on Interstate 35 between Kansas City and Oklahoma's U.S. 412/64 after noon Thursday into Christmas Day will be difficult, if not impossible.  The same will be true on U.S. 400 from Greensburg east to the Missouri border.  

Ice storm conditions may occur in Iowa.  With high winds, power outages are possible.  

AccuWeather has the latest on the major winter storm that will affect the Central U.S. WeatherData and AccuWeather partner on this decluttered, winterized radar display, available here.

There is also a possibility of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. Coverage here. The NWS Storm Prediction Center issued this map of the probability of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday at 11:30am today.  Note:  30% is fairly high this time of year.

AccuWeather radar for the severe weather threat area is here.  Please keep up on the weather as this major storm develops.


Update IV, 11pm:  Here is an example of what meteorologists deal with when attempting to forecast snow amounts.  Below are screen captures of the National Weather Service's NAM model forecast based on the computer simulation using 6am data (left) and the noon data (right).  Now, look at Topeka, Kansas (click to enlarge).  Six inches with the early data, 18+ inches with the later data.  My house in Wichita is forecast to get less than an inch in the 6am model run and 12" in the later run!

It now appears the forecast of snow amounts on the right is the more likely outcome along with gusts to 50 mph across eastern Kansas, eastern Nebraska and northwest Missouri.  This is a dangerous winter storm.  

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The Economic Importance of Weather

The Wall Street Journal reminds us of the economic importance of weather.

NEW YORK -- Monday marked the first day of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and the snowstorm that blanketed the East Coast this weekend was just the latest reminder that weather holds a tremendous sway on economic activity.

Winter's impact presents a particularly big risk to the outlook. The second half of 2009 has seen fairly robust activity as the U.S. has come out of recession. But if the weather drags down first-quarter growth, expect to hear more talk of a double-dip downturn. Economists will have to separate the problems caused by Mother Nature versus the longer-term weakness from deleveraging and high unemployment.

More here.

Just How Good Are Weather Forecasts?

In my forthcoming book, Warnings:  The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather, I tell the story of how weather science has created an highly effective system that saves countless lives during hurricanes and tornadoes, and prevents airline crashes.

I did not include winter storms because I doubted that anyone would want to read a 1,000 page book.  That said, meteorology has made tremendous strides with all types of storms.  How much progress?  Take a look at this map of WeatherData's forecast of the weekend blizzard with the actual snowfall amounts in red numerals (click on image to enlarge).

Pretty amazing, isn't it?

Our presentations teach businesses how to adapt the best of weather science into their operation and risk management strategies to increase both profits and safety.  You can learn more at our web site.  Call us today or after the holidays.