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Showing posts from February, 2024

Carrington Event: Time to Pay Attention!

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From the very beginning of this blog, we have warned of natural hazards like ice storms, tornadoes, tsunamis and others. And, since at least 2011, we have warned of a Carrington Event or an electromagnetic pulse bomb in the upper atmosphere -- either of which would take out the electric grid...likely for weeks or months.  A number of publications have written about the mass cellphone outage the last few days have written about this topic . But, here's the problem: Presidents Obama and Trump appointed commissions to study this truly existential problem and recommend solutions. But, then, little happened.  So the question is: Will the United States wake up and fortify the grid before the next Carrington Event occurs.  And, will you put away at least a week of water and food (that won't spoil) away?

Global Warming: Is There Anything It Can't Do?!

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Seven Day Rainfall Forecast

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This is the forecast precipitation from now until 6am next Friday. Note the heavy rain is forecast to occur in the Northwest (heavy snow i9n the mountains) with mild snow in California's Sierra. 

Tornado Season Begins Next week

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It looks like the first significant tornado situations of 2024 will develop the middle of next week.  While these are very  preliminary, the yellow areas are where tornadoes, large hail and/or damaging thunderstorm winds may occur. So, this means it is time to get your tornado safety planning completed. If you do not have a "safe room" or a  storm shelter , the safest place is in a basement under heavy furniture such as a pool table.  Rehearse  taking shelter there with your children. If you do not have a shelter or basement, then get into a bathroom or closet in the middle of the house. The theory is to put as many walls as possible between you and the tornado. Laying down in the bathtub is a good idea. Again, r ehearse  taking shelter there with your children.  Wherever your safe area may be, put in a couple of bottles of water, a pair of old shoes with good soles, and, if appropriate, a couple of diapers.  If you are in public, avoid buildings with large roofs without supp

Yesterday's Tornado in Java

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Above is video of the Java Tornado. On April 29, 2022, we caught a small tornado in Marion County, Kansas.  Yesterday, on the Island of Java, a tornado with nearly identical appearance formed.  In a part of the world where tornadoes are rare, this one turned into a destructive storm .   There's an entire page of videos, including damage, here . 

Sheriff vs Train: Guess the Winner

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I've spoken with train crews and they universally dread coming into an intersection seconds after another train clears it.  That dread turned to reality in 2023 when two sheriff's cars illegally went around lowered crossing gates as the first train cleared an intersection. The first car was promptly struck by the second train with the second stopping just short. You can see the gates were down in the image below. The deputy suffered numerous broken bones but has made a full recovery.  Crossing protection systems are pretty sophisticated these days and the gates do not stay down unless there is a second train approaching. Never go around them. 

California Precipitation Amounts

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 Up to 3pm PST, here are the precipitation amounts. Below is the latest radar (3:40pm): Rain, with snow in the mountains, continues. The inland atmospheric river extents along and just north of I-15 to Cedar City. 

"When We are Right, No One Remembers; When We are Wrong, No One Forgets!"

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The title is from a poem called Weatherman's Lament  and I recalled it when reading the Washington Post  Capital Weather Gang's article about a busted forecast in the Northeast Friday and Saturday. Here is one of the comments about the article. I can vividly remember a much-hyped snowstorm in the DMV around 1977. The forecasters started the noise on a Wednesday, and the storm was supposed to arrive Sunday night. A foot of snow -- at least, most said -- was predicted. Still holding a grudge about a missed snow forecast nearly 50 years ago! As the poem says, "no one forgets"! And, of course, the frequently uttered comment I most dislike.  The Post's  entire article is here . Of course, I wrote a book where I tell the true story (written in the form of a novel so it is easy to read) of how weather forecasting came to be so accurate (Saturday's miss notwithstanding) and how we save thousands of lives each year. The book has a 4.6 out of five rating at Amazon. If

Tuesday's Highest Risk of Flooding is in Los Angeles and Orange Counties

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Radar at 6am PST.

California Tornado Risk is Now Low

While the risk of a tornado the rest of the evening is not zero, the chances of a tornado are now pretty low. There are two unofficial  reports of tornadoes but we should know more tomorrow. 

California: Tornado, Flood and Heavy Snow Risk Today; Flood Risk Tuesday

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For real-time tornado risk updates, please follow me on Twitter @usweatherexpert. Update 1pm PST The area outlined is where the NWS Storm Prediction Center believes is the area where a tornado or two and large hail is most likely this afternoon and early evening. Please monitor local weather sources plus I will be tweeting about the storms.  -- original posting --  Please note that the tornado risk area (brown) has been increased in size to include Chico. This forecast is still valid through this evening.  The red area around Santa Barbara has a high risk of flash flooding. The yellow has a moderate risk.  [Updated] The NWS has upgraded the flood risk for the Los Angeles area Tuesday.  Please closely monitor the weather in this area. Heavy to extreme snows are forecast in the Sierra. 

My Stock Photography - Now 150+ Curated Images

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Adobe Stock Photography   does not represent just any photograph. I probably submit four for every photograph they approve. I now have more than 150 images that you will enjoy viewing.  There are some terrific images for your spring project. Please click on the pink link and take a look! Thank you.  Whatever your 

California: Tornado and Heavy Rain Threat

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For real-time tornado risk updates, please follow me on Twitter  @usweatherexpert The NWS is forecasting a significant risk of tornadoes tomorrow (Monday) in California. The brown area is a significant risk. The green is a non-zero but very small risk.  There is also a high risk of flooding along parts of the coast. And, Monday, there is a high risk around Santa Barbara. Here is the total precipitation between now and Wednesday night, when the current weather pattern is forecasted to cease. Over the Sierra: Of course, I will continue to follow this situation on this blog and on Twitter @usweatherexpert. 

Sunday Fun: The NFL Has the Wrong Guy

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Chiefs fans are still basking in the memory of  Sunday's thrilling overtime win.    Perhaps that is why the NFL, which to my recollection has never before emailed me, sent an invitation to make a deposit  on tickets for next year's Super Bowl LIX (59) just hours after the Super Bowl 58 concluded, There reasons to be sentimental about a New Orleans Super Bowl for Chiefs fans. It was the site of our first world championship after losing to Green Bay in Super Bowl I. My parents attended Super Bowl IV while my then-girlfriend came over the house to watch because I had to babysit my younger sisters 🙃.    Keep Matriculating the Ball Down the Field Boys! That was the game where Chiefs Coach Hank Stram was wired for sound by NFL Films. If you like football and have never seen the above clip, I urge you to watch.  In homage to Hank, current Chiefs Coach Andy Reid wore the same style sport coat on his way into the stadium Sunday.  Instead of "65 Toss Power Trap," Sunday'

California Flood Outlook

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Flooding is forecast on a scattered basis across all but far Southern California next week. The flooding will likely be worse along and north of I-80 than it was with the previous storm. It will less bad than the previous storm in the Southland.   Of course, I'll update at least once per day. Please check back. 

The California Storm is Underway; Update 8:30am

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Green = flood watch. Pink = winter storm warning. Sand = wind advisory.  Forecast precipitation between now and 4pm Wednesday.  This storm will affect Northern California more than the Southland.  Here is the latest radar as of 8:25am. The extent of the rain has increased significantly the past two hours. 

Another Climate "Tipping Point" That Didn't Tip!

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Update on Approaching California Storm: Updated 2:30pm PST

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Latest satellite image shows the next storm off the coast of California as well as the atmospheric river (AR) attached to it.  Additional Information: The researchers at Scripps just tweeted about this situation and their analysis is essential the same as mine.  Below are the forecast model precipitation amounts map between now and Wednesday night.  Here is the National Weather Service's latest forecast precipitation amounts from 4pm this evening to 4pm Wednesday. The storm is taking a slightly more southern path and only light to moderate amounts are forecast in southern Oregon.  Here is a forecast of snow in the Sierra. 

Midwest and Mid Atlantic Snow [Update 7pm CST]

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Radar at 6:50pm. The snow continues to make its way slowly east.  Below is the forecast for additional snowfall.  Forecast from now until 11pm Pink = winter storm warning. Purple = winter weather advisory.

Thoughts on Tornado Season 2024

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There's little chance of a major tornado situation for the rest of the month of February.  However, once we get past February, both the statistical probability of tornadoes increases and, in this case, some long-range model data points to an above average March. That is why I would like to urge you to consider your tornado preparations.  Here are a few thoughts: If you do not have a "safe room" or a storm shelter , the safest place is in a basement under heavy furniture such as a pool table. Rehearse  taking shelter there with your children. If you do not have a shelter or basement, then get into a bathroom or closet in the middle of the house. The theory is to put as many walls as possible between you and the tornado. Laying down in the bathtub is a good idea. Again, r ehearse  taking shelter there with your children.  If you are in public, avoid buildings with large roofs without support poles. For example, look at the Joplin High School (below). Photo: ESPN The main bu