The pale blue is where flooding is possible the next five days.  The map below shows the forecast rainfall for the next seven days. That is more than five inches in eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.  Please keep this in mind with your planning the next few days. 

FEMA desperately needs reform. My earlier thoughts are here but there are a number of solutions floating around Washington that would be an improvement.  The status quo is fiercely defended by public sector meteorologists, emergency managers and FEMA employees, in spite of the overwhelming evidence that FEMA could stand for "Failing Emergency Matters, Always." It would be extremely difficult to find a genuine FEMA success story (the way normal people measure success) in the past four decades. I am presenting this analysis because the situation gets more and more urgent. Reform can no longer wait. I detail some of its historical failures here , but there is nothing better than your own eyes.  Lahaina Wildfires of 2023 This is an aerial photo of the town of Lahaina, Maui in 2022-2023. It was a charming, bustling area full of great restaurants, shops and other commerce. Kathleen and I enjoyed visiting many times.  On August 8, 2023, Lahaina was ravaged by well forecast (by...

The NWS Storm Prediction Center starting today has adopted a new type of messaging strategy to communicate their expectations in their "outlook" messages for Days 1, 2 and 3. The criteria is listed above.  The colors represent the probability of a tornado or severe thunderstorm (hail ≥ 1" diameter and/or wind gusts of 50 knots/58mph or stronger) within 25 miles of any given point. It is also showing a Level 1 intensity threat for which you can derive from the chart at the top.  Tomorrow, I suspect the threat level will be higher due to a strong low pressure system at both the surface and in the upper atmosphere. It will be interesting to see how this new system evolves this spring. 

From the Red River Valley comes the battle of the news anchors!  Click here to watch. I wonder when the divorce papers (joke) will be filed?

"Debacle." What a terribly sad and ignorant comment.  The  tyrannical regime in Iran has gunned down more than 35,000 of its own people since the protests began .  Bringing people their freedom is one of the most noble things the United States will ever do. I'd argue this should have been done decades ago before Iran could strengthen its terror network and sell military hardware to China and Russia.  In addition to freeing the people of Iran, China gets almost all of its oil from Iran. I suspect the people of Taiwan are breathing slightly easier. Empty bridge intended to carry California's high speed rail tracks Yes, I realize that we are spending money that might have purchased a couple of miles of California high speed rail (given zero track has been laid and more than $14 billion spent to-date after more than 11 years of "construction").  Or, it might be just enough to purchase a week of Minneapolis "day care." I realize these spending prioritie...

Photos by Kathleen Smith Undulatus clouds, which are a cloud type like cumulus or cirrus, appeared over the southwest part of the Kansas City Metro this afternoon. When they occur, they are spectacular. In this case, they were on the leading edge of a cluster of thunderstorms.  So far, those thunderstorms have brought limited moisture (mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain). More in needed but these are the amounts to 4pm.