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[ Update] 5pm Hawaii Time Friday

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Update at 5pm. No change in the path forecast. Reminder: dangerous surf and, on Kauai, heavy rains are possible.  Lowell is redeveloping into a Cat 5 hurricane but will weaken some when it comes closest to Hawaii. The good news is that the forecast shown below hasn't changed as of 11 am Hawaii time Friday. I reiterate:   Regardless of Lowell's exact path, there will be life-threatening high surf, especially on the south and southwest side of the islands. --- original 4:40am Hawaii time posting --- Some tentative good news this morning. Lowell is now forecast to move west of the primary Hawaii Islands, per the National Hurricane Center.  Regardless of Lowell's exact path, there will be life-threatening high surf, especially on the south and southwest side of the islands. This forecast is not the final word. A Hurricane Hunter plane will investigate the storm later today which should yield a high confidence forecast. 

Children, Seat Restraints, and Auto Safety

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I saw this and it brought a number of thoughts to mind.......... Before anyone thinks bringing these back is a good idea: I testified in a lawsuit by a mother against the State of Florida in Palm Beach in 1992. The girl, 4 years-old (older than the boy pictured), was standing in the front seat and was leaning on the dashboard.  A downburst stuck a construction site as the car was passing through it. It picked up a square road sign. The corner of the sign pierced the windshield and the child's skull. She died almost instantly. So, this type of 'restraint' is certainly insufficient.  Perhaps surprisingly given these facts, the jury found in favor of the mother. A downburst in 1991 was practically unforecastable and it would have been nearly impossible in the 70+mph winds for the crew to scurrying around gathering all of the signs (and the one that caused the injury was weighed down with sand bags).  Turns out that in Florida, and in many other states, there were  laws ...

Update on Hurricane Lowell, 5am HST

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The Island of Kauai and the Island of Niihau are now in the "cone of uncertainty" regarding major Hurricane Lowell. While this is a long way from a hurricane warning, I make two suggestions: If you are traveling to or from Hawaii, please consider this in your plans. If you live on Kauai or Niihau, please be thinking about preliminary preparations.  Regardless, there will be extreme, dangerous surf with this storm irrespective of whether a landfall occurs. 

10:40am Friday - Good News

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The Cheyenne office is now back online.  ----- As of 4:10p CDT Thursday, the Cheyenne office has been down 77 hours and counting! No one, including the people in the office, know when they will be back online. This morning, the Jackson KY NWS office was down 11 hours.  --- original post --- National Weather Service Office in Cheyenne, Wyoming  In the United States right now, we have ... A tornado watch in New York state. Record flooding in parts of Texas.  A hurricane threat to Hawaii. Extreme heat in the Midwest  Yet, when you attempted to get un updated forecast from the NWS's Severe Storms Forecast Center this morning, you received this: Some of the SPC's forecasts were not available. That would be bad.  But -- worse -- the National Weather Service office in Cheyenne, Wyoming, has been down 54+ hours and counting!  The reason "Cheyenne" is red in this image is because its rather radar is not available. The office cannot create or send warnings, cr...

Strong Tornadoes Possible Upstate New York

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The threat increases through 7pm. More below. -- original post 5:45p --- Note that  strong tornadoes, 2" hail and 70 mph thunderstorm-generated winds are all forecast. At 5:46p, there are two tornado warnings in SW Ontario and these storms will move into New York in the next couple of hours. Please keep up on the latest weather information! Bright red polygons near Kitchener = tornado warnings. Dark red = tornado watches. 

Update 11:20a HST Wednesday: Heads Up: Hawaii. Hurricane Lowell is a Threat

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The National Hurricane Center is pulled their 5th day forecast (8am Monday) farther to the right (east) which would tend to increase the threat to the western Hawaiian Islands.  If you have travel plans, please consider the threat from Hurricane Lowell. If I were vacationing on Kauai, I might consider heaving home now later than Sunday night.  If you live on Oahu or Kauai, please consider preliminary preparations.  11am Hawaii time photo Original Post: The two best hurricane forecasting models in the world show the potential for a major hurricane to pass near -- to the west -- of Hawaii Islands. However,  the trend of the models has been for a gradual shift east in the track forecast. The latest ECMWF wind speed swath forecast is below. About the only time Hawaii gets major hurricanes, which almost always come from the south, is during El Nino years and we have a strong El Nino at this point.  The timing of the approach Hurricane Lowell will be the early part of...

250th Trains: The Coolest Thing I've Seen in a Long Time

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America's Railroads Celebrate America's 250th This occurred Friday evening. It is an event for the North Carolina Transportation Museum. Each of the railroads that painted one or more locos to celebrate America paraded their engines at this event with horns blaring.