Tornado Watch Issued 3:40pm In Kansas, this watch includes Olathe, Paola; in Missouri, Belton, Excelsior Springs and Chillicothe; in Iowa, Winterzet, Clarinda and Marshalltown.  Tornado Watch Issued - 2:50pm The areas tinted in red are tornado watches. In addition to the strong thunderstorms in southeast Kansas, additional storms are forecast to develop in these areas. Hail up to 3 1/2 inches is forecast to fall along with the tornadoes. In Kansas, the watch includes Pittsburg, Coffeyville and Independence. In Missouri, it includes Branson, Table Rock Lake and Nevada.  11:50am Update The areas in brown hatching have a significant risk of tornadoes and, if a tornado occurs, it could be strong. The Storm Prediction Center has added Missouri and southeast Kansas to the tornado risk area.  The Great Lakes significant tornado risk is where the storms are not forecast to be "strong," but all tornadoes are dangerous.  Please keep up on the latest weather information. I will...

I will have a forecast up after I have had time to look at the data. 

Update at 3:40pm Note that in addition to tornadoes, softball size hail is forecast.  Update at 3pm Note that in addition to "several tornadoes" the forecast is calling for hail up to softball size. I invite you to follow my updates on Twitter/X   @usweatherexpert .  This Forecast Updated at 11:40am The yellow, counter-hatched area from eastern Iowa across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois is where there is an enhanced  risk of violent  tornadoes. This is a rare forecast.  The yellow area with the regular hatching has an enhanced  risk of strong tornadoes. The brown area has a significant risk of strong tornadoes.  The brown area has a significant risk of strong tornadoes.  I will update as the storms develop on Twitter @usweatherexpert.   Unfortunately, we will have tornadoes and/or severe thunderstorms somewhere east of the rockies between today and Sunday.  Giant Hail The red areas with the reverse hatching is where hails...

Yesterday, a meteorologist wrote an opinion on Twitter/X that said (paraphrasing), "no one should issue their own tornado forecasts because it will cause confusion w/r/t the official forecasts issued by the NWS's Storm Prediction Center's (SPC)." Ironically, yesterday was also a day I disagreed with SPC. At 3:10pm, I posted this forecast for tornadoes. The SPC had no tornadoes whatsoever in the forecast for eastern Kansas as shown below. Earlier in the day, they weren't even forecasting ordinary thunderstorms in the area (not shown)  The tornado forecast below was issued by SPC at 8am yesterday. The tornado forecast below was issued by the NWS at 3pm. The Kansas tornadoes were in the "no chance of tornadoes (white) area." [update] The red triangles are the locations of tornadoes. The Ottawa and Spring Hill Tornadoes were both rated EF-2, that is defined as a "strong" tornado by the NWS. There was also a tornado near Pomona (documented by storm ...

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Tornado Watch Issued 6:35pm A tornado warning  was just issued for the easternmost storm.  Tornado Forecast, Updated 3:10pm The area in yellow had an enhanced risk of a strong tornado. The brown area has a significant risk of a tornado and it may be strong if one occurs.  At 3:10pm, a tornado watch (red tint) had just been issued with thunderstorms rapidly developing in the area.  In this same area there is a higher than usual risk of large hail.  Father south and west, there is a possibility of isolated  severe thunderstorms that could bring large hail and -- just perhaps -- a tornado or two.  Please keep close track of the weather in these areas.