Grok On one level, this piece by Australia's Jo Nova is hilarious . The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is joining companies like United Airlines and Wal•Mart in blaming the weather for their performance problems. Australia's Channel 7 news says: Australians are facing a new climate reality where traditional weather patterns no longer apply, with scientists warning that “climate whiplash” is making seasonal forecasts increasingly unreliable and costly. The phenomenon has left meteorologists struggling to predict what’s coming next, as one season can bring floods, fires, storms and record heat with little warning. My "favorite" comment?   But forecasters admit anything is possible in the current climate. So -- surprise -- the Aussie meteorologists want more money because it is getting harder to forecast the weather at 90 days in the future.  While I have zero experience forecasting 90 day weather Down Under, I do know that our 90-day forecasts are of poor quality no ...

We try very hard to make this a "no hype" site for weather forecasts and other information. With that said, my concern is growing by the day that we are in for serious and worsening drought in the western half of the "Lower 48." The map above is the difference from average forecast temperature for the next five days. From California to the Rockies and High Plains it is forecast to be very warm. This is an "ensemble" of forecasts from the ECMWF model system (which tends to dampen out forecast extremes as we get farther into the future) and it continues to show significantly warmer than average weather in the same area. With greater heat, higher amounts of moisture are lost due to evaporation.  Above is the precipitation forecast for the next 15 days expressed as difference from average. The entire Lower 48 is forecast to be dry but California and Oregon will be especially dry. This is important because once we get deeper into April, the statistical chance f...

This posting is primarily for people in the field of atmospheric science. A popular weather blog opened yesterday with news of a lawsuit where a taxpayer-funded organization called the "University Corporation for Atmospheric Research" (a/k/a UCAR, a Washington, DC consortium of colleges with meteorology and similar programs) is using taxpayer dollars to sue other taxpayer supported organizations because the Trump Administration wishes to close the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado and distribute its programs to other research institutions. UCAR claims that defunding NCAR "violates the Constitution" and doing so will, among other things, harm the U.S. "national security." As I was writing this, a second blog weighed in making similar points .  Meteorology is tiny profession (per Grok, in 2024 there were 9,400 practicing meteorologists in the United States) which is of  far, far greater importance than its numbers would suggest . [I check...

This is very sad news for the world, not just Kansas.  The map depicts the number of hours the temperature was below 12°F. Little if any wheat, once it has emerged for the season, can handle that intensity and duration of cold.

The area in red has a high  risk of tornadoes, possibly strong, today. The yellow area has an exhanced risk and the brown area a significant risk. The area in purple has an extreme  risk of wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger -- with the potential for gusts of more than 75 mph. The pink area has a high risk and the red area has an enhanced risk.  Please keep up on the weather in these areas all day. This will be my only update due to illness.