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Southwest Flood Outlook

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The heavy rain last week was accompanied by tornadoes, large hail and record flooding. More heavy rain is likely from the end of this week into early next week and, likely, beyond.  Below is are the forecast rainfall amounts for the next five days. Rivers are already high in the 4 Corners region so this heavy rain will worsen what has been record flooding in some areas. While forecasting beyond 5 days is dicey, here is the 6-10 day rainfall outlook. NOAA is portraying very high confidence of heavier than usual rainfall throughout the Southwest. This could turn into a record flood situation over a large geographic area. This is a result, in part, of the El Nino. As we, and others, have been saying: The only way to "fix" the terrible rain deficits in the Colorado River Basin is by flooding rains. This is going to be a problem throughout the winter! You will also recall the destructive tornadoes in the Southwest last week. More tornadoes are possible or even likely this week and...

Please Take a Look at My Gallery

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I hope you will take a few minutes to browse my galley at Adobe Stock Photography .  There are about 250 curated images I believe you will enjoy. I also want to thank all of the people and/or enterprises who have licensed by stock photography the past few weeks. 

Sunday Fun: Only the Government Would Do This...

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I think we have a new winner for dumbest road sign. Below, from 2023, is the previous winner. It drops to #2.

Saturday Fun: Congratulations, Brewers!

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The Milwaukee Brewers won game 1 of the World Series last night. It was a thrilling, close game with a final score of 3-2 over the Rays.  I can just hear Bob Uecker up in Heaven (a/k/a, "the front row" ) saying, " Ya know [Saint] Pete, the team paid me a $50,000 bonus for this game. All I had to do is not come within 5 miles of the stadium!" Also, there was a faint sound I heard during last night's 5th inning. I think it was Bob shouting, He missed the tag, he missed the tag!

What are Others Saying About the NWS's Disastrous Performance With the Southwest Tornado Warnings

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Alan Gerard is a former NWS forecasters and manager as well as a retired NOAA manager. Regarding the warning mess, today he wrote this essay . Highly recommended!   From Matthew Cappucci, a well-known Washington, DC meteorologist: More and more, I believe the NWS will "fix" this by setting up a National Storm Warning  Center (not to be confused with their Storm Prediction  Center). The problem is that, with civil service hiring rules, there is absolutely no guarantee that expert tornado warning meteorologists will be hired for the job.  The NWS desperately needs to seek outside expertise before embarking on yet another "reorganization" and it needs to take that advice seriously. 

The Collapse in Confidence in NWS Tornado Warnings

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The past 2 days have seen a major shift in the way the National Weather Service’s (NWS) storm warning services in general, and tornado warnings in particular, are viewed by many in the meteorological community as well by members of the media, emergency management, and the public. The usual NWS apologists seem to be changing their minds after the incredibly bad warning services provided to the Southwest .  The sentence should read, "Not even a severe thunderstorm warning???" The radar image on the right shows an impressive amount of lofted debris. People were injured. There was considerable destruction. Even destructive tornadoes went without warning, and warnings were issued on thunderstorms that had zero change of producing a tornado (including warnings based on hail spikes and other radar artifacts that falsely indicate rotation). Radar, in a New Mexico case, showed tornadic lofted debris in progress but no tornado warning! The Arizona town of  Overgaard  had zero warni...

Today's Tornado Risk: Arizona Again Plus New Mexico

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After tornadoes in Arizona yesterday, the threat has shifted a bit to the southeast. Remember: a tornado watch  means tornadoes are possible and you should monitor the weather. A tornado warning means one is imminent and safety measures should be taken. Large hail is also possible.  Note: Because of previous obligations, I am not able to issue independent tornado warnings today.