This forecast has been updated. Please scroll up.  This Afternoon and Evening The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. There will be a few supercells in the High Plains and any one of them may begin rotating. Please keep in mind that my 4-point tornado risk scale is: Significant risk Enhanced  High Extreme (which is rare) Monday 2pm to Midnight There has been a lot of talk in the media about the risk of tornadoes on Monday. My forecast differs from some: Here is the color code: The red area has a high risk of tornadoes and some could be strong.  Orange has an enhanced risk and one or two could be strong.  Peach has a significant risk of tornadoes.  Of course, I will update this forecast Monday morning. 

This is a photo of a New Mexico Roadrunner.  Konrad Wolte The question is: did the roadrunner make it to Acme (NM) before the tornado?! At least we now know the location where the roadrunner and Wile E Coyote cartoons were filmed! fireybirdything

More than five inches of rain are forecast to fall over southeast Kansas and parts of southwest Missouri as well as a small part of southeast Oklahoma. This area has been fairly wet the past few weeks go flooding is possible. Please keep this in mind if you live in these areas. 

We have good news: next week, the National Weather Service's (NWS) office in Omaha will resume launching weather balloons twice per day. But, the attempt to overplay the current -- significant -- issues continues.  The headline , from yesterday, is simply wrong. There is no severe weather forecasting done at the University of Wisconsin -- Madison.  Lots of useful research, including the corrections between satellite data and extreme weather, is done but not forecasting.  The article talks about their satellite archive -- which is important -- but NOAA keeps a similar archive.  My point is that there is plenty to worry about at this time but inflating the problems does no one any good. 

Please note the forecast is for strong  tornadoes. The geographic area covered is a little larger than earlier forecasts. Please keep up on the weather the rest of this afternoon and into the evening if you are in these areas.  2:55pm update : Here is a more specific forecast of where the strong tornadoes are forecast to occur -- the yellow, watched area. The brown area has a significant chance of tornadoes. 

From the Department of Irony: Is there nothing upon which Congress won't waste our money?!