Taken by the author in Olathe, looking northeast. When you see meteorologists and others criticizing the people of Kerr County, Texas for not immediately evacuating when the first flood warning was received at 1:14am on July 4, here is a perfect example of the NWS’s flood warning credibility problem via an "areal flood advisory" in Olathe, Kansas, this evening.    Above is a photo, taken from Olathe, of a thunderstorm cluster moving over Kansas City. As I was starting to crop the photo to post on the blog, I was flabbergasted to see a NWS “flood advisory” for Olathe come out.   Here is the primary problem: While it may rain,  it isn’t going to flood in Olathe by 10:30, the time the advisory expires. The sky is blue  (look at the top of the photo). Plus, it has been dry in this area recently.      Next, while the list of locations included includes Olathe, the polygon does not. Which are people supposed to trust? Olathe is noted. The blue dot was m...

As of 4:10pm MDT, a severe thunderstorm warning is out in Wyoming but the NWS is essentially guessing as both of Wyoming's radars are down and have been since mid-evening yesterday. Warnings are being issued out of the NWS at Billings, MT and Rapid City but they are all essentially flying blind without the radars. The Denver radar can give somewhat of a view in southeast Wyoming but that is about it.  If there were violent tornadoes or flash floods in the center of the state, the NWS would not be able to measure and warn of them.  This happens far too often and it periodically occurs during periods of floods, tornadoes, large hail, etc., as it is today.  As explained many times, the National Weather Service is a mess and was a mess long before President Trump was sworn in. The leadership of NOAA and the NWS seem to be unable to fix it. That is why outside advice and expertise is needed to fix this. 

The area in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes after about 2pm (west side of the brown area). Please keep an eye on the weather in this region. 

[This is an update of a Post that appeared in December, 2024] Investigating the 2011 Joplin Tornado An Outline of the National Disaster Review Board Regardless of whether there is an attempt to fix NOAA through incremental improvement  or whether there is a “divorce” of the NWS from NOAA, neither has much of a chance to be successful without a National Disaster Review Board (NDRB) modeled after the hugely successful National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). Last week's independent report on the NWS's failing tornado warning program only confirms this near certainty.  Accountability is not a natural part of the culture inside the Beltway. The NDRB will be an essential step in that direction.  Regardless of our political preferences and affiliations, I believe most of us can agree on the following: Mega-disasters (i.e., July 4 Texas Hill Country flash flood [likely worst since 1886], Los Angeles wildfire, southern Appalachians floods after Helene, Maui Wildfire, etc.)...

NWS office in storm warning mode While flash flood warnings have -- rightly and understandably -- dominated the news the past 10 days, this does not mean the National Weather Service's (NWS) other types of storm warnings are effective and meeting their goals. They are not; a point made here for more than a decade.  I have two pieces of new information.  The first involves an independent study (by an outside contractor) of the NWS's tornado warning program that was published last week but was not noticed because of all of the news and concern pertaining to the July 4 Hill Country Flood. Below are the results of the study with my comments and more below that.                                                                                ...

There two areas where serious flash flooding may occur from now until 8am Tuesday.  I urge those in or near the red areas to monitor the latest weather warnings.