Posts

HIGH Risk of Flash Flooding in Southwest Texas

Image
High Risk of Flash Flooding in the Purple Area Included in the high risk area are Uvalde, Hondo and Crystal City. Kerr County, the site of the devastating flash flood of July 4, 2025, has a "moderate" risk. As of 11:45am, flash flood warnings  are in effect for most of the area between San Antonio and Del Rio.  Light to moderate intensity rain continues to fall over most of the region. The rainfall rates may increase in intensity this afternoon.

Today's Tornado Risk: New England

Image
An unusually high risk of tornadoes and damaging winds exists in Maine and adjacent areas of New England.  The yellow area has an enhanced  risk of strong  tornadoes. The brown area has a significant risk of strong tornadoes. The green area has a very low (but non-zero) risk, any tornadoes in the hatched area could be strong.  This is the forecast for damaging thunderstorm-generated winds. The red area has an enhanced  risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger. The hatched yellow area is where there is a significant risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger. The unhatched yellow area has a significant risk of gusts of 60 mph or stronger.  Remember:  A tornado watch  means tornadoes are possible. A tornado warning   means it is time to take shelter. The graphic below will help you determine your shelter area. I will update on Twitter/X @usweatherexpert . 

Unusual Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Threat Tuesday

Image
There is a serious risk of damaging winds and tornadoes in Maine and nearby parts of New England on Tuesday.  Because of the unusual location, I'm providing an extra day's "heads up." Tornado Risk The area in brown hatching has a significant risk of strong tornadoes.  Damaging Winds The hatched red area has an enhanced  risk of damaging winds of 75 mph or stronger. The hatched yellow area has a significant risk of 75 mph or stronger. The unhatched yellow area has a significant risk of gust of 60 mph or stronger.  Of course, I will update this forecast tomorrow morning. 

Lots of Rain South of I-70 - Flood Update

Image
If you need rain and live south of Interstate 70, you have a pretty good chance the next five days.  [I-70 runs from near Washington, DC to central Utah.] Update 3:10pm CDT The pale blue area is where the NWS is forecasting scattered flooding between now and Sunday morning. 

The Drought Deepens

Image
The latest data shows reason for concern about the deepening drought in the West and its potential spread eastward. This week's drought data is discouraging. The severe drought from the Rockies to the Sierra continues to worsen as does the drought in the Middle Atlantic region.  Here is the forecast rainfall amounts for the next seven days.  In the West, the light rains will be of little help.  Our ability to forecast summer rainfall amounts at 8 to 14 days is marginal at best, but here's the latest estimate: While part of the western drought area is forecast to have greater than average rainfall, it is not particularly good news for two reasons. The first is that this is generally a dry time of year so more than usual rain isn't very much. Second, is the temperatures are forecast to be above normal so the evaporation rates will be high. I will periodically update this situation. 

Congratulations, Wichita!

Image
Wichita, along with Dayton, have been named the hosts of the first two rounds of the 2027 and 2028 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament (a/k/a "March Madness). Details are here .  In 2025, Wichita hosted both March Madness and the U.S. National Figure Skating Championships. Congratulations, Wichita!

Why Does Construction Take So Long in the 2020's?

Image
Disneyland 1958 This is something that really confuses me.  When I ask about "construction" I am not asking about planning or environmental work, I'm asking why it takes so long once the first dirt is moved.  For example, a small waterpark is going to be built in Olathe, Kansas, by the Hunt Family. Great! The  Kansas City Star  reports, “We’re shooting for 24 months to be up and running because we want it out of the ground,” said James Arkell, the chief operating officer of Loretto Companies. Essentially, two years.  So, I asked AI, "Once construction began, how long did it take to build Disneyland?" The answer: Presumably, today's construction tools are equal or better than those of 70 years ago. So, why does it take at least twice as long -- or, for public works projects, three or more times as long? Anyone?