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Tornado Watch Now Issued

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4pm Update Red tint = tornado watch.  -- 2:30pm Update -- The NWS's Storm Prediction Center has now extended the tornado threat into far north central Oklahoma. A tornado watch will likely be issued.  -- original post, still valid --  The area in brown has a significant  risk of tornadoes this afternoon and tonight. Immediately below is a reminder about the difference between tornado warnings and watches. Please keep up on the weather into tonight. Below is the updated flash flood forecast from now until 7am Thursday. 

Tornadoes: Just a Reminder

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Updated Flood Forecast, 3:55pm Tuesday

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The dark blue area is where extensive, perhaps life-threatening, flooding is forecast to occur during the next three days. The pale blue area is where flooding will occur on a more scattered basis but still may be significant.  Note: I would extend the pale blue area from Wichita to Columbia (MO) to Quincy (IL).  A few days ago we talked about the flooding being so serious it could take out interstate highways. Below is I-25 in New Mexico. More to come, unfortunately.

More on the NWS Falling Apart

Yesterday, we talked about a cable cut that brought down NWS radars.  From a Reader in Upstate New York: For months now, WX:L32, the NWS radio station that covers the Capital district of New York State has been off the air (or operating at such reduced strength that it can be heard by very few). I reached out to NWS Albany. They acknowledge that it is down, even posted a notice on their Weather Story page. That was months ago and the station is still off the air. I reached out again to NWS Albany regarding WXL34; they referred me to the Public Affairs office. No response . . . whatsoever. So I emailed the White House. Amazon and others sell a number of "emergency" radios that have NWS radio reception capabilities. My conjecture is that the purchasers expect that when their I-phone weather apps don't work (I refer you to Helene and western North Carolina and Eastern Tennessee) that NWS weather will be there to help them gather information and decide what to do. It is tragi...

3:40pm Monday Update on Flood Threat

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Excessive rainfall is still forecast over much of the central United States. Here is the 7-day forecast of rainfall amounts, with amber signaling 7+ inch amounts. With regard to the band of rain from Des Moines to Albuquerque, it may be a bit too far north or it may need to be widened to make a more accurate forecast.  Here is the flooding forecast for the next 7-days. The pale blue will see flooding but it will not be as widespread.  The deep blue is where widespread, serious flooding is forecast. If you live in the blue area and your residence is in a low or flood-prone area, I would have a go-kid ready in case of emergency evacuation orders.  The second round of rain from Hurricane Polo is now in progress as the storm reaches the Mexico coast. This is the radar from 3:30pm CDT. The rain will become more widespread the next 3 days. 

I Don't Know Which Outage This Was....

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There were so many NWS outages last week, I have no idea which this represents but it does represent the solution: redundancy!  The NWS seems to have the resources to make "cutesy" videos but doesn't to ensure that vital tornado and hurricane warnings are published and distributed in a timely way from the office that has the radar that covers the affected area. 

Updated Heavy Rain and Flood Outlook for Central United States - 2:20pm CDT Sunday

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This is one of the wettest rainfall amount forecasts for the central United States that I have seen in 50+ years of looking at this. That is a forecast of more than 7 inches of rain along I-35 from Madill, OK to the DFW Metroplex! There are multiple areas where more than 4" inches of rain is forecast to fall. Please pay attention to the forecasts this week!   Updated flash flood forecasts. The first is from 7pm this evening to 7pm Monday. The red area has a serious risk of flash flooding.  The serious risk moves east from 7pm Monday to 7pm Tuesday. It is vital  that travelers and residents monitor the weather in these areas, including those on Interstate highways that some unfortunately believe "never flood." Make sure you have a "Go Kit" ready if you live in a flood prone or low-lying area.