Much of the nation is going to be hot! Right now, there is no specific indication of wetter or drier than average conditions next week except that I would add an areas of below normal rainfall from St. Louis east to Louisville and north to Indianapolis.  And, for Monday night (only).......... Especially with the heat, some people will experience the issues outlined above.  Have a wonderful , and safe, holiday week!!

Note that, in addition to strong  tornadoes, 80 mph thunderstorm-driven wind gusts and tennis ball-sized hail are also forecast.  Note: Tulsa is included. Oklahoma City and Wichita are not.  -- Original Forecast, Still Valid -- The areas in brown on both maps have a significant risk of tornadoes later today -- and any tornado may be strong. The threat may begin this afternoon.  In addition to the cities shown above, Joplin, Carthage and Neosho in Missouri are also included. 

From meteorologist Jan Null, who is an expert on the hot cars threat.  Put your phone, keys or purse in the back seat when you strap in your child. 

Girls evacuating during at the beginning of the flood from  cabins to the Rec Hall.  Some sad news out of Texas: Camp Mystic, the Christian girls camp along the Guadalupe River in Texas since 1926, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy . That means they are going to ask a court to deal with their debts with hope of reopening at some point.  Of course, Mystic was the camp where 28 girls and adults perished during the extreme flash flood the morning of July 4, 2025. The State of Texas has found the planning for flash floods, especially since the camp was right next to a river known for flooding, was wholly inadequate. The report of the Texas Senate was released yesterday and it is here . Given the nature of Chapter 11, it is likely the owners of the camp will lose their equity and the camp may be sold to others. Whether anyone will come forward is unknown.  While the owners of the camp deserve a great deal of criticism for the lack of meteorological preparedness (based o...

Severe thunderstorms began to develop in the same area three hours after this photo was taken. The clouds you see are called "altocumulus castellanus" (meteorologists call them ACCAS or "ay-cass"). If you see them in the afternoon or evening, they mean thunderstorms will occur within about 80 miles by 7 the next morning, regardless of what the models show. This rule is especially useful in astronomical spring.  Wednesday night in Kansas City was a perfect example. ACCAS showed up around 8pm and were still there at darkness. No thunderstorms were forecast by the NWS's Storm Prediction Center nor in the local forecast. Yet, thunderstorms (below) developed. ACCAS do appear differently in different lighting. Here they are at sunset.  While not perfect, the rule is quite reliable. Today's meteorologists are often reluctant to forecast something not shown by the computers. But, if you pay attention to this rule, you'll be correct more often than not. 

From Twitter/X yesterday afternoon With the 250th Independence Day period next week, there will be millions  of Americans heading to the airports and inevitably giant problems with develop -- especially if the weather is bad.  The airlines do everything they can to fill flights to 100% -- which means there are few extra seats for you if your flight is cancelled.  More than ever, you cannot afford to be passive in these situations. You are far more likely to get a successful or somewhat successful resolution if you 1) research and 2) speak-up. With regard to the above, AA Flight 2117 is from DFW to Orlando. It was delayed more than four hours and -- more often than not -- those delays only get worse. The other flights to Orlando are also delayed.  If I were at DFW, and considering the flight is not supposed to take off until significantly after midnight, I would be worried my flight will be cancelled after all of that waiting. Then, things could turn into days of wait...