Tornado season is beginning. Time to review this table! Tornadoes are possible through Friday night.  If you are at home:

The map below shows the forecast rainfall for the next seven days. That is more than  seven  inches in southeastern Oklahoma.  Please keep this in mind with your planning the next few days. 

The area in brown (the Ozarks region) has a significant risk of a tornado later today or this evening. Please keep up on the latest weather information in this region. 

FEMA desperately needs reform. My earlier thoughts are here but there are a number of solutions floating around Washington that would be an improvement.  The status quo is fiercely defended by public sector meteorologists, emergency managers and FEMA employees, in spite of the overwhelming evidence that FEMA could stand for "Failing Emergency Matters, Always." It would be extremely difficult to find a genuine FEMA success story (the way normal people measure success) in the past four decades. I am presenting this analysis because the situation gets more and more urgent. Reform can no longer wait. I detail some of its historical failures here , but there is nothing better than your own eyes.  Lahaina Wildfires of 2023 This is an aerial photo of the town of Lahaina, Maui in 2022-2023. It was a charming, bustling area full of great restaurants, shops and other commerce. Kathleen and I enjoyed visiting many times.  On August 8, 2023, Lahaina was ravaged by well forecast (by...

The NWS Storm Prediction Center starting today has adopted a new type of messaging strategy to communicate their expectations in their "outlook" messages for Days 1, 2 and 3. The criteria is listed above.  The colors represent the probability of a tornado or severe thunderstorm (hail ≥ 1" diameter and/or wind gusts of 50 knots/58mph or stronger) within 25 miles of any given point. It is also showing a Level 1 intensity threat for which you can derive from the chart at the top.  Tomorrow, I suspect the threat level will be higher due to a strong low pressure system at both the surface and in the upper atmosphere. It will be interesting to see how this new system evolves this spring. 

From the Red River Valley comes the battle of the news anchors!  Click here to watch. I wonder when the divorce papers (joke) will be filed?