Major Winter Storm For Central Great Plains and Midwest

Here is my forecast for snowfall until 6pm on Thursday the 4th. 

This will a crippling storm in the areas in purple and pink. In the dark maroon area southeast and southeast of Chicago, there will be 1.5 feet of snow!

The snow will begin Tuesday evening, generally between 6 and 10pm, in the area indicted. It will spread quickly in all directions after that time. 

While the snow falls, there will be wind gusts to 30 or even 35 mph in places which will cause drifting snow. 

Freezing Rain Forecast:

Above are maps of the Sperry-Piltz ice storm power failure index. 

• Orange: "Scattered utility interruptions expected, typically lasting 12-24 hours."
• Red (southeast Missouri): "Numerous utility interruptions with some damage to main feeder lines and equipment expected. Tree limb damage is excessive. Outages lasting 1-5 days. 

There is no doubt in my mind that the ice, snow, the drifting, power failures, and the cold -- especially Friday morning -- will further increase the supply chain issues we are experiencing across the country. 

The shades of green are lows below zero Friday.

My usual suggestions for ice storms and heavy snow apply:

• Make provisions for the infirm now.
• Fully charge electrical devices. But, if power flashes (blue-green ground flashes caused by shorting lines and transformers) or blinking power occur, take them off the charger immediately to prevent damage. 
• Get prescriptions filled before the snow begins. 
• Go to the grocery store and get extra cash from the ATM. 

Finally, here is an overview of the various watches, warnings, etc.,

Color code:

• Pink, winter storm warning
• Dark blue, winter storm watch
• Maroon, very high wildfire danger
• Green, flash flood watch
• Amber, high winds likely 
• Purple, winter storm advisory (lesser condition)
• Turquoise (NW Montana), freezing fog warning 

I will update this forecast tomorrow morning. 

Note to Readers: Central U.S. Winter Storm

I will have a complete forecast as to snow amounts, etc., pertaining to the mid- to late week winter storm posted early this evening. In the meantime, here are the National Weather Service's various watches, et cetera. The color code:

• Dark blue, winter storm watch
• Green, flash flood watch
• Maroon, high wildfire danger
• Amber, high wind potential

Selling Unborn Baby Parts in the United States

Judicial Watch's uncovering of U.S. government (including Dr. Fauci's agency) documents pertaining to the buying and selling of parts of unborn babies is nothing short of horrific. 

This is the stuff of Dr. Josef Mengele during the Holocaust. From the United States' Holocaust Museum:

Mengele performed a broad range of agonizing and often lethal experiments with Jewish and Roma (Gypsy) twins, most of them children.

He had a wide variety of other research interests. Among these was a fascination with heterochromia, a condition in which the irises of an individual's eyes differ in coloration. Throughout his stay in Auschwitz, Mengele collected the eyes of his murdered victims, in part to furnish “research material” to colleague Karin Magnussen, a KWI researcher of eye pigmentation.

The killing of babies and then buying and selling their parts is an unspeakable evil. It is equivalent to acid flowing through our body politic. 

Two Words....

Go Chiefs!!!!

Nothing more need be said. 

Another Excellent Reason Not to Eat It

Our Sunday Fun feature today is nutrition advice. As you can see from the above headline: eating broccoli (along with brussels sprouts, cauliflower, radishes, beets, etc.) is just too dangerous to your heath. 

Next Time Anyone Tells You Hurricanes Are Getting Worse...

 ...it just ain't true. 

Eastern Winter Storm Update

Here is the radar for 4:40pm. The forecast is unchanged since the posting below.

Blizzard Warnings For East Coast

From NYC a few minutes ago.

Storm Warnings Updated at 10:35am

While the map has not updated, a blizzard warning was just issued for southeast Connecticut and the eastern two-thirds of Long Island. NYC is not under a blizzard warning at this time but it is under a winter storm warning. 

The orange shading is where a blizzard warning is in effect. Pink is a winter storm warning. This will be a big one. 

Lighter blue is a winter storm watch. Purple is a winter weather advisory (less condition).

You do not want to fly or drive into the into the pink or orange areas after the snow begins. Snow removal services will be overwhelmed. Power failures may occur in the blizzard warning areas. 

• Get prescriptions refilled.
• Fill your car with fuel.
• Get extra cash. 

Thundersnow may occur from Long Island to Boston.

Snow Amounts Below. There will be severe drifting.

Forecast Radar for 7pm

Forecast Radar for 8am Saturday 

                                               Forecast Radar for 2pm Saturday

 

Snow Forecast for the Northeast

The snow begins Friday night in the coastal regions. 

Note to Readers

 I am swamped with projects today. I will have a report on the possibility of a snow storm in the Northeast tonight along with some interesting weather history tomorrow. 

Another Global Warming Phony

You might have seen coverage of Arnold Schwarzenegger crashing his giant SUV into two other cars Friday.

What you may not know is that he is another global warming hypocrite. 

In addition to driving a giant SUV, he has been an extensive user of private jets. 

With very few exceptions, most of the politicians and celebrities calling for people to reduce their carbon footprints have giant carbon footprints of their own. 

I Remember When the Activists At Least Used to Pretend It Was About Science

So, is the 'expert' an atmospheric scientist? A geologist? A physicist? Okay, since they are talking about nutrition, is the person a nutritionist? 

The climate/automotive science/nutrition 'expert' is an....architect. 

Sheesh. 

Yes! Companies Need Expert Weather Science

A bit of news thanks to KMOV-TV in St. Louis. Amazon is hiring two meteorologists per their job board. 

This is the result of a tornado causing fatal injuries at their Edwardsville, Illinois, facility December 10. A nighttime tornado struck (below), killing six.

According to the KMOV story, Amazon is going to hire a meteorologist and a chief meteorologist. That's fine if they believe it is what will work for them. But, can two people cover facilities in almost every city of any size, across numerous time zones, and with different local climatologies?

I am retired from the day-to-day forecasting business but am still active in the field. We can provide objective guidance to businesses attempting to make decisions in a field unfamiliar to their industry.

Typical questions can include the decision to hire your own meteorologists or outsource to a commercial weather company, mission-critical communications, safety plans, and other vital safety decisions. 

Contact us for more information. After all, tornado season 2022 is just weeks away. 

Sunday Fun: By Far, the Coolest Commercial I Have Ever Seen

Watch here, or better still, click here and watch in full screen. I won't tell you what it is because I don't wish to ruin the surprises. 

There is a video that shows how the commercial was made here. 

A Great Book For That Christmas Gift Card

Great Reviews of a Great Book

Or, read this review at Amazon (click to enlarge). 

You can see many more reviews here. 

Big Climate Does Not Want to Solve Global Warming

As we've observed many times, Big Climate would rather have the political issue rather than actually lessening the global warming risk. This becomes abundantly clear when you read the article. This move will cause residences to spend thousands as a result. No one who really wants decarbonization would do this. 

TSA Update

We haven't done a TSA update in ages. Reason just published,

The problem is that Americans way overestimate the effectiveness of the TSA and overall airport security efforts at keeping them safe from bad actors. Truthfully, the fact that they think the TSA accomplishes much of anything at all beyond making air travel a bigger pain in the ass reflects a massive disconnect between what people think is a good idea and what actually has a positive effect on the world.

"Homeland Security conducted an investigation in 2015 which found that undercover investigators were able to successfully smuggle mock explosives and banned weapons through Transportation Security Administration checkpoints in 95% of trials," YouGov helpfully points out. "In stark contrast to these findings … More than three in four Americans say it is very (37%) or somewhat (40%) likely that airport security would stop the person" smuggling a weapon onto a plane.

That the TSA is completely ineffective and an abject failure at everything it does was apparent long before we mourned its 20th anniversary last year. Experts have long emphasized that the TSA is geared towards assuring the public that Something Very Important is being done to keep people safe, even as money and energy is squandered on pointless activities and useless devices. Security expert Bruce Schneier dubs the TSA's role "security theater" since it's geared for public consumption rather than effectiveness.

"The TSA is failing to defend us against the threat of terrorism," Schneier pointed out in 2015. "The only reason they've been able to get away with the scam for so long is that there isn't much of a threat of terrorism to defend against."

Why is there almost no threat of on-board terrorism these days? Because right after September 11, the cockpit doors were reinforced and locked. 

The TSA is nothing but (mostly) rude "security theatre." Somehow airports like San Francisco, Kansas City and Sacramento - which have never had the TSA - manage airport security much better than airports that do, as measured by independent tests. 

Past time to get rid of the TSA. 

UPDATE 10am Thursday. Wait till you read this!

Our Military Has Lost Its Way

America's Darkest Anniversary

Saturday is the anniversary of the horrific Roe v Wade ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court. Sixty-three million babies have been killed since that terrible day in 1973. 

People used to be reluctant and embarrassed to talk about abortion. Now, it is open advocacy as was displayed by the Kansas City Star 's front page (below) on January 9th and celebrities bragging about their abortions. California is considering establishing an abortion tourism industry.

According to historians, America hit its zenith -- military power, standard of living for the broad population with relatively little income inequality, et cetera, in 1975. I do not believe it is a coincidence that our nation has been in decline since then. Roe allowed a pernicious evil into our society, has cast a shadow over our politics and elections, and has eaten away our morals like acid. 

On the 49th anniversary of Roe, here as some facts to keep in mind:

• Abortions performed as a result of rapes are 0.2% of abortions (two per thousand).
• The combination of abortions because of rape, incest, health of the mother and fetal abnormality represent just 1.2% of abortions (12 of every thousand).
• 988 out of every thousand abortions are elective. 
• One in four women in America have had an abortion, a number of them have had multiple abortions.
• There is now a flourishing underground market for fetal parts (legs, arms, etc.) that is aided by Planned Parenthood. 

We are now at the point where mainstream Democratic politicians openly advocate for murdering children after they are born.     

To be clear, neither I nor any other pro-life person I know would force a woman to keep a baby she doesn't want or is not able to care for. A woman in that situation would receive tremendous graces by giving her child up for adoption. 

As to the libelous, "Pro-life people only care about births, not babies," nothing could be farther than the truth. In every city of any size, networks of pro-life people stand ready to assist the mother and child live stable, fulfilling lives. 

Even strongly liberal legal scholars believe Roe was wrongly decided. 

Even some notable legal scholars who favor legal elective abortion as a policy have been willing to acknowledge this. Writing in the Yale Law Journal in 1973, the year Roe was decided, John Hart Ely of Harvard Law School (later dean of Stanford Law School) derided the decision as “bad because it is bad constitutional law, or rather because it is not constitutional law and gives almost no sense of an obligation to try to be.”

And he is not alone. Writing in the Harvard Law Review in 1973, Laurence Tribe explained that “one of the most curious things about Roe is that, behind its own verbal smokescreen, the substantive judgment on which it rests is nowhere to be found.”

Meanwhile, Edward Lazarus, a former clerk to Harry Blackmun, the justice who authored Roe, explained that “as a matter of constitutional interpretation and judicial method, Roe borders on the indefensible.” And it’s worth noting that Lazarus describes himself as “utterly committed to the right to choose.”

While I would be against a letter campaign or something similar to try to influence the Supreme Court's pending decision, I believe all Americans should pray that Roe is overturned and that sanity and morality on this issue should prevail. Yes, there will be areas where abortion will still be legal, but it will be possible to put "guardrails" around it than the unrestricted nature of abortions under Roe. 

Dust Devil on Mars

The Climate Gestapo

On this blog and Twitter, you've read mentions of the Department of Energy's Climate Gestapo. They are now hiring. 

Their job is to get into local communities --  and even come onto your property -- to build support for 'clean' energy. Per various news releases on of their first tasks will be to rally support for transmission lines for wind energy since solar and wind usually aren't located where people live. Per the DOE web site, they will: 

• Engaging and collaborating early with states, tribal nations, and stakeholders to accelerate transmission deployment. 

I'm going to take a wild guess that they will try to blend in and make the public believe that what they are seeing and hearing is a result of local residents. This is a known technique of Big Climate. Of course, $20 billion of your tax dollars will be spent on this effort -- which will result in more expensive and less reliable electricity. 

So, thanks to the Biden Administration, the climate gestapo will become reality. 

Amazing Satellite Animation of the Volcanic Pressure Wave

Saturday, we walked about the barometric pressure wave from the Tonga volcano explosion as it moved across the United States. For example, the red line (below) shows the very rapid fluctuation in barometric pressure at Washington, DC. 

The Pacific GOES-17 weather satellite's sensors (not of the type you see in television weathercasts) was used to created an animation of the wave as emanated from the eruption. A screen capture is below.

The animation is here. Just amazing. Thanks to William Barlow for the animation. 

Major Power Failures in the Southeast

Note: forecast radar for midnight at the bottom of this post. 

A video from North Carolina shows a shorted electrical line on fire as a result of ice-laded tree limbs leaning into the line. The video is quite dramatic, especially with the sound of the off-camera transformer shorting out. 

As of 4:30pm EST, the winterized radar shows the freezing rain moving out of North Carolina and into Virginia. Snow has begun in the Washington area.

Also, as of 4:30, poweroutage.us shows extensive power failures in the Southeast. Some of the outages in Florida are due to the morning tornado outbreak (posting below).

Total outages in the four states are 204,000 homes and businesses which equals about 500,000 people without power. This includes a recent 5,000 customers in Virginia which are not yet showing on the map. 

Below is the forecast radar for midnight. 

Congratulations, NWS Tampa

The EF-2 tornado that struck Ft. Myers at 7:35 this morning was a really tough call. They got it right! Nicely done!

Considering the amount of damage, the warning undoubtedly saved lives -- especially since the storm struck a mile home park (below).

There is more from the News-Press. 

East Coast Winter Storm Update

Courtesy of Tomer Berg, here are forecasts for late this afternoon and evening:

4pm Eastern Time Sunday 

10pm Eastern Time Sunday Evening 

Please note that the rate of snow increases over Pennsylvania and New York this evening as temperatures fall. This will make travel extremely hazardous. There will also be high winds in this area which will cause drifting snow and, perhaps, power failures. 

Sunday Fun: Preposterous "Study"

Radar for Meteorology Students

Here's a little tip that can be used when interpreting radar images, especially in winter when stratiform rain and snow have lower cloud tops than in summer. 

What does this radar image show?

When a radar echo has a circular edge, it is nearly certain the precipitation extends farther in that direction than the radar depicts. Why?

The reason is that the radar overshoots the rain or snow. 

This illustration is a simplification in that the radar beam curves 
at a much lesser rate than the earth's curvature. 

The overshooting results in a circular edge to the radar echo.

And, when the circular shape is between the radar and the precipitation, it means the precipitation is not reaching the ground. 

Volcano Questions Answered

I've had lots of questions today as to whether the volcano might:

1. Have caused high winds in San Francisco overnight?
2. Cause the current winter storm to change path?
3. Cause the La Nina to change to an El Nino through warming of the water due to hot volcanic magma?
4. When will the volcanic cloud arrive over the United States?

and, a number of others. I didn't roll back the twitter feed back very far. I always like questions (@usweatherexpert) so here are some answers:

1. The barometric pressure wave that encircled the world might have caused a period of wind gusts in SFO or anywhere. It caused a micro-tsunami in Puerto Rico. However, any change in winds would be minor.

2.  No. 

3. The underwater lava causes explosions. While that will cause some heat transfer, it is relatively minor and would not significantly effect the La Nina. That is not to say it will not have climatological effects. We don't know yet. For more, see here. 

4. As to ash particles, the answer may be never. The weather of the Southern and Northern Hemispheres operate more or less independently. However, given enough time, the sulphur dioxide may eventually reach North America as it can stay in the atmosphere for years. But, it will take a considerable period of time. 

Current Winter Weather Warnings and Forecasts

Because of the importance of the Tonga Volcanic Eruption, I have been covering that all morning (scroll down). Here is a quick update on the winter weather situation. 

Color code:

• Deep purple: Ice storm warning.
• Gold: High wind warning. 
• Pink: Winter storm warning. 
• Sand: High wind advisory (lesser condition).
• Maroon: High fire danger. 
• Dark green: Winter storm watch. 
• Dark blue: Winter weather advisory. 

Tonga Volcano: Likely Climate Effects

Very pleased to report that a satellite has now surveyed the sulphur dioxide content of the two total eruptions is less than needed to create a major effect on earth's temperatures. 

[Update 1:55pm CST]

There were two giant eruptions of the Tonga Volcano. A prominent volcanologist has weighed in and said the measurements from the first do not indicate a major climate effect. However, after looking at the data from every source I can think of, no one has commented on the second, larger, explosion.

So, it may be that I am too pessimistic about the climate effects. I hope so. 

I'll post more as soon as it is available.

Update: Here is a link to the Smithsonian's Global Volcanism Program which has considerable information. 

[Original Posting Below]

This is an enormous story -- that the MSM has still not picked up on -- because of the likely cooling of our climate that it will cause. This appears to be bigger than Mt. Pinatubo which cooled the earth for 1.5

years.

The enormity of the South Pacific volcanic explosion can be seen by clicking here. 

It is now confirmed that this is the biggest eruption of the satellite era -- which goes back 60 years. The eruption was heard in Alaska, 5,300+ miles away. It is likely that the 235 mph updrafts forced "gunk" through the stratosphere and into the mesosphere. 

Nelson Tucker (via Twitter) put the above cloud into perspective by putting it over a map centered at Washington, DC.

The ash cloud is now more than a thousand miles in length.

Climate Effects

I'm not sure the science exists to make an quality forecast of how much cooling and where (Southern Hemisphere only or entire globe) but it will be significant. 

UPDATE with photo. Below is a U.S. government satellite image that helps explain how volcanic ash and discharged chemicals like sulfur dioxide (important climate effects) spread through the stratosphere. Note the clouds are far below the volcanic plume. 

Resuming original post:

Below are world temperatures from 1980 to 2000. I have highlighted the cooling caused by Pinatubo. 

That cooling directly led to crop failures and the record floods of 1993 in the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys north of the Ohio River confluence. 

The 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora in Indonesia caused the "Year Without Summer" -- with snow in July in New England and crop failures in several parts of the world the following year. We don't have a good yardstick by which to compare Tambora and Tonga. 

I'll keep my eye out for more information. 

ADDITION: The atmospheric shock wave reached Miami. The barograph reading is below. Truly a worldwide event.