Tonga Volcano: Likely Climate Effects

By -
Very pleased to report that a satellite has now surveyed the sulphur dioxide content of the two total eruptions is less than needed to create a major effect on earth's temperatures. 

[Update 1:55pm CST]

There were two giant eruptions of the Tonga Volcano. A prominent volcanologist has weighed in and said the measurements from the first do not indicate a major climate effect. However, after looking at the data from every source I can think of, no one has commented on the second, larger, explosion.

So, it may be that I am too pessimistic about the climate effects. I hope so. 

I'll post more as soon as it is available.

Update: Here is a link to the Smithsonian's Global Volcanism Program which has considerable information. 


[Original Posting Below]

This is an enormous story -- that the MSM has still not picked up on -- because of the likely cooling of our climate that it will cause. This appears to be bigger than Mt. Pinatubo which cooled the earth for 1.5
years.

The enormity of the South Pacific volcanic explosion can be seen by clicking here. 

It is now confirmed that this is the biggest eruption of the satellite era -- which goes back 60 years. The eruption was heard in Alaska, 5,300+ miles away. It is likely that the 235 mph updrafts forced "gunk" through the stratosphere and into the mesosphere. 

Nelson Tucker (via Twitter) put the above cloud into perspective by putting it over a map centered at Washington, DC.
The ash cloud is now more than a thousand miles in length.

Climate Effects

I'm not sure the science exists to make an quality forecast of how much cooling and where (Southern Hemisphere only or entire globe) but it will be significant. 

UPDATE with photo. Below is a U.S. government satellite image that helps explain how volcanic ash and discharged chemicals like sulfur dioxide (important climate effects) spread through the stratosphere. Note the clouds are far below the volcanic plume. 

Resuming original post:
Below are world temperatures from 1980 to 2000. I have highlighted the cooling caused by Pinatubo. 
That cooling directly led to crop failures and the record floods of 1993 in the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys north of the Ohio River confluence. 

The 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora in Indonesia caused the "Year Without Summer" -- with snow in July in New England and crop failures in several parts of the world the following year. We don't have a good yardstick by which to compare Tambora and Tonga. 

I'll keep my eye out for more information. 

ADDITION: The atmospheric shock wave reached Miami. The barograph reading is below. Truly a worldwide event. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

By -
Image
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding.  Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map.  In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state.  Here is the updated  (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state.  The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
Read more

Dangerous Travel Conditions - People Reportedly Stranded

By -
Image
-- Note, more current info available. Scroll up. --- Updated Information as of 8am PDT You are risking your life if you attempt to travel through the purple area.  While the rain has not begun in coastal California, I would urge you to use this time to make any preparations. Power outages have occurred already in southeast California. Here is the latest radar as of 7:55am PDT. As of 6:40am PDT , the radar indicates moderate to heavy rain falling over desert areas of Southern California and far western Arizona (click to enlarge).  Rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 7am PDT show more than two inches have already fallen. There are reports from reliable sources that roads are already washed out and that people are stranded in isolated parts of the desert.  Below is a high-resolution computer model's rainfall forecast from 5am PDT to 11pm PDT Sunday. More than a foot of additional rain is forecast to fall. This will lead to catastrophic flooding.  Here is a map of current watc
Read more

Update on Tornado and Wind Potential; 12 Noon PDT

By -
Image
There was at least one tornado and at least one funnel cloud yesterday.  --- original forecast --- Hilary (the swirly symbol) continues to move NNW paralleling the coast of Baja California, Mexico. The area outlined in red has a significant risk of tornadoe s the rest of the afternoon.  Below is a list of peak wind gusts so far.  Peak winds may increase farther north as the afternoon progresses.  Addition at 12 noon PDT: Sure enough, winds have increased.  Note: If you are in the San Diego area, I recommend not  traveling east on I-8. Heavy rains may cause flash flooding that will involve the highway. 
Read more