Saturday, January 15, 2022

Tonga Volcano: Likely Climate Effects

Very pleased to report that a satellite has now surveyed the sulphur dioxide content of the two total eruptions is less than needed to create a major effect on earth's temperatures. 

[Update 1:55pm CST]

There were two giant eruptions of the Tonga Volcano. A prominent volcanologist has weighed in and said the measurements from the first do not indicate a major climate effect. However, after looking at the data from every source I can think of, no one has commented on the second, larger, explosion.

So, it may be that I am too pessimistic about the climate effects. I hope so. 

I'll post more as soon as it is available.

Update: Here is a link to the Smithsonian's Global Volcanism Program which has considerable information. 

[Original Posting Below]

This is an enormous story -- that the MSM has still not picked up on -- because of the likely cooling of our climate that it will cause. This appears to be bigger than Mt. Pinatubo which cooled the earth for 1.5

The enormity of the South Pacific volcanic explosion can be seen by clicking here

It is now confirmed that this is the biggest eruption of the satellite era -- which goes back 60 years. The eruption was heard in Alaska, 5,300+ miles away. It is likely that the 235 mph updrafts forced "gunk" through the stratosphere and into the mesosphere. 

Nelson Tucker (via Twitter) put the above cloud into perspective by putting it over a map centered at Washington, DC.
The ash cloud is now more than a thousand miles in length.

Climate Effects

I'm not sure the science exists to make an quality forecast of how much cooling and where (Southern Hemisphere only or entire globe) but it will be significant

UPDATE with photo. Below is a U.S. government satellite image that helps explain how volcanic ash and discharged chemicals like sulfur dioxide (important climate effects) spread through the stratosphere. Note the clouds are far below the volcanic plume. 

Resuming original post:
Below are world temperatures from 1980 to 2000. I have highlighted the cooling caused by Pinatubo. 
That cooling directly led to crop failures and the record floods of 1993 in the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys north of the Ohio River confluence. 

The 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora in Indonesia caused the "Year Without Summer" -- with snow in July in New England and crop failures in several parts of the world the following year. We don't have a good yardstick by which to compare Tambora and Tonga. 

I'll keep my eye out for more information. 

ADDITION: The atmospheric shock wave reached Miami. The barograph reading is below. Truly a worldwide event. 

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