Dr. Ryan Maue has condensed into one tweet what the current issue is with our warmer than average world . The problem is not  CO2, but rather water vapor injected into the stratosphere by the Hunga-Tonga Volcano. World temperatures going back had been steady for eight years (see below). Water vapor is a far more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. It, combined with the El Nino, means this warmer than average weather may continue for a while. 

Saturday, we walked about the barometric pressure wave from the Tonga volcano explosion as it moved across the United States. For example, the red line (below) shows the very rapid fluctuation in barometric pressure at Washington, DC.  The Pacific GOES-17 weather satellite's sensors (not of the type you see in television weathercasts) was used to created an animation of the wave as emanated from the eruption. A screen capture is below. The animation is here . Just amazing. Thanks to William Barlow for the animation. 

I've had lots of questions today as to whether the volcano might: Have caused high winds in San Francisco overnight? Cause the current winter storm to change path? Cause the La Nina to change to an El Nino through warming of the water due to hot volcanic magma? When will the volcanic cloud arrive over the United States? and, a number of others. I didn't roll back the twitter feed back very far. I always like questions (@usweatherexpert) so here are some answers: 1. The barometric pressure wave that encircled the world might have caused a period of wind gusts in SFO or anywhere. It caused a micro-tsunami in Puerto Rico.  However, any change in winds would be minor. 2.  No.  3. The underwater lava causes explosions. While that will cause some heat transfer, it is relatively minor and would not significantly effect the La Nina. That is not to say it will not have climatological effects. We don't know yet. For more, see here .  4. As to ash particles, the answer may be n...

Very pleased to report that a satellite has now surveyed the sulphur dioxide content of the two total eruptions is less than needed to create a major effect on earth's temperatures.  [Update 1:55pm CST] There were two giant eruptions of the Tonga Volcano. A prominent volcanologist has weighed in and said the measurements from the first do not  indicate a major climate effect. However, after looking at the data from every source I can think of, no one has commented on the second, larger, explosion. So, it may be that I am too pessimistic about the climate effects. I hope so.  I'll post more as soon as it is available. Update: Here is a link to the Smithsonian's Global Volcanism Program which has considerable information.  [Original Posting Below] This is an enormous story -- that the MSM has still not picked up on -- because of the likely cooling of our climate that it will cause. This appears to be bigger than  Mt. Pinatubo  which cooled the earth for 1.5 ...

Nothing I can add.

I didn't know there were people who go around the world chasing volcanoes like the people who chase tornadoes. Andy Revkin has the story . My friend, Dr. Joe D'Aleo, has contended that below normal volcanic activity contributed to the global warming period from 1978 to 1998. With the increased volcanic activity these days, one must be concerned it will lead to cooler temperatures in the next year or two.

Reuters photo of Indonesian eruption When the volcano erupted in Iceland and disrupted European air travel, the threat of volcanic eruptions was briefly in the headlines. I wrote about it several times including this post regarding predictions that world was going to see more volcanic activity than we have been used to the last quarter century. Now, another "unexpected" volcanic eruption as Mt. Sinaburg has begun erupting in the last 48 hours.  The Wall Street Journal says, The vulcanologist said Mount Sinabung last erupted in 1600, so observers don't know its eruption pattern and are monitoring it for more activity.  Evacuations on the volcano's slopes started Friday at the first signs of activity. Many of the people who fled are staying in government buildings, houses of worship and other evacuation centers in two nearby towns. My point is: At this time last week, there was no inkling that this volcano would erupt. We have a number of active volcanos in the we...

This article contends that we are in for a period of increased volcanic activity. Dr. Joe D'Aleo, CCM, a long time friend, wrote years ago that one of the reasons for the warming of recent decades was the low level of volcanic activity. That may be coming to an end. The computer models forecasting global warming  do not allow for volcanic activity.  The seeming increase in volcanic activity a reason why I believe the U.S. needs to institute a high quality volcano watch/warning program using the existing meteorological infrastructure.

Taken yesterday (19th). Note how most of Iceland is not experiencing the plume. Note also the densest ash is flowing over the ocean. When a Sierra or Cascade volcano erupts in the U.S., the densest ash will affect a populated area. Hat tip:  Watts Up With That

Here is a photo of the ash streaming from Iceland's volcano, taken by NASA yesterday. If you are planning to fly to Europe, here is the area of the ash cloud as forecast by the British Met Office with the forecast valid at noon London time tomorrow (red outline). Hat Tip: Jan Null.