Hurricane warnings have been posted for the Louisiana coast (red).  Winds at landfall are now forecast to be 100 mph, which is a significant change since this morning's forecast. There is also a high surge warning. The pink/blue is a hurricane watch/tropical storm warning. Yellow is a tropical storm watch. Damaging winds are likely in Baton Rouge and possible in New Orleans.  In red, the storm surge is forecast to be up to 10 feet -- a life-threatening situation.  Tornadoes are possible along and to the east of the path of the eye of the hurricane.  Now is the time to prepare. Below is the time of arrival of the 40 mph or stronger winds.   Along the coast and in flood-prone areas: Assemble a "go kit" if you haven't already. This includes family heirlooms as well as essentials such as medicines, protein bars, water bottles and a few days of clothes in case you are ordered to evacuate.  If you have a generator, fill it with fuel.  Keep your car filled with fuel.  Get so

4:10p This forecast has been updated. Hurricane warnings  have been issued for the Louisiana coast. The update is available here .  2:05pm. Francine is strengthening  significantly. As of 1pm, it is maximum sustained winds are 60 mph and the pressure has dropped to 996 mb. Here is the forecast rainfall.  10:10am: NHC has officially upgraded the system in the southwest Gulf to Tropical Storm Francine. A hurricane watch has been issued for the Louisiana Coast from Cameron to Grand Isle.  Then-Hurricane Francine is forecast to come ashore with 85 mph winds. The winds will affect Baton Rouge and, possibly, New Orleans. Please note the hurricane watch goes inland a ways to account for the potential for 75 mph or stronger winds away from the coast.  Pink = hurricane watch.  Yellow = tropical storm watch.  Amber = area of 40 to 50 mph winds at present. Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph and the lowest pressure is 1002 millibars.  Published at 9:20am: The system in the southwest Gulf is much m

This forecast has been updated. Please go here for the latest forecast .  Here is the 10pm forecast from the National Hurricane Center.  Please note that a tropical storm watch has been issued for the far south Texas coast. Francine is forecast to be an 80 mph hurricane at landfall. However, there is a chance landfall could occur anywhere within te white zone.  I will have more information Monday morning.  ---- Published at 3:30pm Sunday... Based on Hurricane Hunter data we have winds as high as 55-60 mph over the southwest Gulf. However, the winds are not yet circular, so it isn't an official tropical storm as yet. There is little doubt that a tropical storm will develop and a hurricane is possible.   I would not change my forecast from yesterday.  If you live to the west (left) of the orange line, you have the potential for tropical storm, or even hurricane, conditions as the week progresses. I've been getting questions from readers in the Houston area. At this point, the od

This forecast has been updated . 2pm Update: The information from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates winds of 45-50 mph, or a little stronger, at the surface. These are tropical storm-level winds. The plane has not yet surveyed enough of the area to know whether winds are in a circular pattern that would indicate a tropical storm.  I will update when more information becomes available late this afternoon or early this evening.  --- original posting --- The National Hurricane Center says there is a 90% chance of a tropical storm forming within the red area. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the storm and watches may be issued later today.  My original forecast, made yesterday, of a tropical storm still looks good. However, I believe the threat to the Mexican State of Tamaulipas is less than it appeared yesterday with the exception of strong winds and high surf along the immediate coast.  Here is a list of all of the models' potential tracks this morning. However, thi

This is the lowest price I've seen for the hardcover version of the book.  It is an upbeat book that tells the story of how the storm warning system saves so many lives. It is not a dense "science book."

Note: this forecast has been updated. Go here for the latest.  Update at 6:45pm. The National Hurricane Center now seems to agree with my forecast.  The red area is where they are forecasting an 80% chance of a tropical depression, or stronger storm, to develop sometime during the next seven days. I believe the best chance is in the Tuesday to Thursday period for tropical storm development.  Update at 6pm: The afternoon model runs, among the models I trust, continue to show a good chance (at least 50%) of a tropical storm forming in the western Gulf. I will update this forecast Sunday morning.  Update at 1pm: The new run of the models I trust are in and my confidence has only grown that there is a threat of a tropical storm developing in the western Gulf of Mexico to the west of the orange line. The rest of this forecast (below) is still valid.  People in the USA and northeast Mexico (west of the orange line) should keep an eye on the weather this week. While this is hardly a sure thi

The cartoon below helps explain how all of this works . 

The founder of one of my favorite musical groups, Sergio Mendes, has passed away at 83, apparently due to long COVID.  Sergio Mendes & Brazil '66 published a string of upbeat Bossa Nova albums that are unmatched.  I was fortunate enough to see them perform in Kansas City, Kansas, in 1969.  Even today, their music has stood the test of time. When quietly I play it for myself, I'm surprised by the number of people who approach me and say, "What is that music? It sounds great. I've never heard anything like it before." If you would like to hear Equinox,  click here .  Sergio was a master at adapting his music to the times . Until the past year or so, he was playing to sold-out audiences around the world.  So, goodbye Sergio, and thanks for all of the great music!

Talk about a terrible idea !  The article states: To aspire to be scientists now, students no longer need to know science. They only need to demonstrate what makes for a good performance of science. This benefits everyone—teachers, school boards, textbook publishers, education bureaucrats—except for talented students who are left poorly prepared for science careers. And American science is left the poorer for it. In making its science test optional, ACT has caved to this pernicious trend. Being a scientist with 50+ years working with and managing other scientists, I cannot overemphasize that a terrible idea this is for America as well as all students.  Because I make no secret of the fact I am Catholic, atheists sometimes challenge me as to whether God exists, They scoff when I explain how science points to God. So, I start asking them questions (such as how the earth was formed) almost all of them don't know enough science to have the conversation! This isn't just true of athe

Higher on the graph = more outages.  Based on a U.S. government report, power outages are increasing and there's no reason to believe this trend will not continue. The graph above is from Liberty Energy via LinkedIn.  We have spent far, far too much on utility-scale wind and solar. That has had two effects: The cost has skyrocketed because wind (calm conditions) and solar (overcast) are not dependable so expensive backups have to be used. The grid has become unstable as politicians insist more wind and solar should continue to be installed.  We are rapidly approaching third world electricity status, if things don't change. Remember: it is election season. This is something ask your candidates about.  

Thanks to all of those who licensed my photos the past three weeks. Your support is greatly appreciated! We have added ten new photos to the collection over the past two weeks.  If you would like to view all 150+ photos, you can see them here . 

I'm so old I remember when journalists were proud to think of themselves as "independent." Now, it is all "follow the narrative." That is a shame for a once-proud profession and it is a shame for America -- which needs quality, independent journalism.  I was looking for a story about St. Louis yesterday  evening (~6pm) and this is what my search engine produced. Climate wasn't even on my mind at the time. See any similarites? The "water fight" story in question is loaded with the words "could," "might," and other weasel words. There is not a single comment that doesn't contribute to the climate alarmist narrative. It is yet another piece of global warming propaganda.  The Gold Standard of climate doesn't even think drought and floods powered by climate are a problem, if at all, until 2050. See Table 12.12 from the IPCC's latest report below, "Wet and Dry." More and more I wonder if media companies are paid

Following up on yesterday's blog posting ...... Phil, with Colorado State U, is one of the foremost hurricane forecast experts in the United States.  Above from  Washington Post  last week. The X  (below) denotes an "area of disorganized thunderstorms" the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has followed, starting early last week, almost all the way across the Atlantic. It was the basis of The Weather Channel's and innumerable bloggers' hype.  Now, there is -- at most -- a 20% chance of a tropical depression (below a tropical storm or hurricane in significance) before it runs into mainland Mexico.  I don't think NHC can escape some of the blame for the hype. We don't have any consistent  skill at forecasting hurricanes 7 days and farther into the future. I don't see the need for 10+ days of "a 40% of a tropical depresssion" forecasts all the two-thirds of the way across the Atlantic.  We will never hesitate to bring a genuine threat to your atten

I'd like address those in or aspiring to be in management positions, especially students working on their MBA this semester.  Behind many of America's problems is we don't turn out business and political leaders like we used to. Part of the problem is America's ethical decay (no consequences to politicians, managers and companies that make gigantic mistakes or even illegal acts) and part is due to believing a promotion to an important job means more rewards -- without accepting more responsibility. In America's heyday of greatness, the primary result of a promotion was increased responsibility. It meant more hours and more work; not less. You were judged by results, not by what the country club crowd thought or the results of opinion polls. Now, the fat cats are far fatter than ever while the ordinary joe often no better off than 50 years ago .  The great author, Homer Hickam, Jr. ( Rocket Boys, The Coalwood Way ), recently published the written instructions his f

Via Twitter and email, I've had readers express concern that a hurricane is going to strike the U.S. coast this week.  While in September (the height of hurricane season) it isn't impossible, there are no  indications at this time of a hurricane threat to the U.S. between now and Saturday.  Yes, as far back as Tuesday of last week, there have been irresponsible people making forecasts well beyond atmospheric science's capability who were guessing a hurricane might occur and some of them are still at it. It is the policy of this blog not to make hurricane guesses! Especially to my two Houston-area readers: after the spring derecho and Beryl, I certainly understand why you would be anxious but there is no reason to be. Please enjoy your holiday today and if a tropical system develops and is within 5-7 days, I will let you know. Promise. 

Have a great time with your friends and family today!!

When you see "news" stories like this from the Wall Street Journal  Monday, Or, like the one below , It is from 2023.  They are incorrect because climate  doesn't delay anything. It is  weather,  on a given day, which causes delays -- something United frequently "fibs" about (see here and here for just two examples).  United isn't the only one, the Financial Times  published an article a few years ago about companies that blame weather for poor earnings results.  There is little evidence that storms have gotten worse, although some believe they will in the future.  I expect more and more companies to Dilbert's approach.