2pm Monday to 1am Tuesday  In my 4-point tornado risk scale: Extreme [not displayed today] High (red) Enhanced (yellow) Significant (brown)

This forecast has been updated. Please scroll up.  This Afternoon and Evening The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. There will be a few supercells in the High Plains and any one of them may begin rotating. Please keep in mind that my 4-point tornado risk scale is: Significant risk Enhanced  High Extreme (which is rare) Monday 2pm to Midnight There has been a lot of talk in the media about the risk of tornadoes on Monday. My forecast differs from some: Here is the color code: The red area has a high risk of tornadoes and some could be strong.  Orange has an enhanced risk and one or two could be strong.  Peach has a significant risk of tornadoes.  Of course, I will update this forecast Monday morning. 

This is a photo of a New Mexico Roadrunner.  Konrad Wolte The question is: did the roadrunner make it to Acme (NM) before the tornado?! At least we now know the location where the roadrunner and Wile E Coyote cartoons were filmed! fireybirdything

More than five inches of rain are forecast to fall over southeast Kansas and parts of southwest Missouri as well as a small part of southeast Oklahoma. This area has been fairly wet the past few weeks go flooding is possible. Please keep this in mind if you live in these areas. 

We have good news: next week, the National Weather Service's (NWS) office in Omaha will resume launching weather balloons twice per day. But, the attempt to overplay the current -- significant -- issues continues.  The headline , from yesterday, is simply wrong. There is no severe weather forecasting done at the University of Wisconsin -- Madison.  Lots of useful research, including the corrections between satellite data and extreme weather, is done but not forecasting.  The article talks about their satellite archive -- which is important -- but NOAA keeps a similar archive.  My point is that there is plenty to worry about at this time but inflating the problems does no one any good. 

Please note the forecast is for strong  tornadoes. The geographic area covered is a little larger than earlier forecasts. Please keep up on the weather the rest of this afternoon and into the evening if you are in these areas.  2:55pm update : Here is a more specific forecast of where the strong tornadoes are forecast to occur -- the yellow, watched area. The brown area has a significant chance of tornadoes. 

From the Department of Irony: Is there nothing upon which Congress won't waste our money?!

Gates' Gunk May Have Far Reaching -- Negative -- Effects Bill Gates and one of his "collection" of private jets Photo from Wijet I hardly know where to begin with this one.  Bill Gates, a man with far more money than sense, wants to "modify solar radiation" to "cool" the world. We would be far better off from a climate perspective if Gates merely gave up his private jet travel but he -- likely most other global warming alarmists -- suffers from extreme hypocrisy. He believes you and I should eat bugs (literally) while he lives the highest of the high lives and has palled around with Jeffery Epstein.  As Newsweek  reports:   It's worth noting that the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has provided funding to companies developing insect-based foods and associated technologies. Gates' Gunk scheme is particularly ironic when one considers climate science won't provide an answer to the most basic climate question: an estimate of earth's idea...

Please keep up on the weather and note that, in addition to tornadoes, softball-sized hail  is also forecast to fall.  --- original posting --- This time, it is the Texas Panhandle.  The brown area is where there is a significant chance of tornadoes from mid-afternoon to about 10pm. Please monitor the weather in these areas.

We have a significant tornado risk in one area: western Kansas.  The brown area reaches the significant level of risk for tornadoes. Please keep an eye on the weather from about 3p CDT to 11pm. 

Today is "Earth Day" where the climate change hype switches from "high" to "off the chart." Jesse is a really good guy and a solid meteorologist, so I was surprised to see this tweet earlier this afternoon. I noted that Wichita (75° at the time) and Kansas City (also 75°) were presented in "alarming red." I find 75 degrees to be nearly ideal and certainly not dangerously hot.  The problem? The use of a color scheme that hypes heat. Look at this detail: Red begins about 66° -- hardly hot. Tbe hype surrounding global warming is hotter than the temperatures! I thought, perhaps, the graphic might have originated with the infamous Yale climate group. Instead, they featured this nonsense : Given the non-stop climate hype today, the 'misinformation' claim is a classic example of "the pot calling the kettle black."  And, finally,  I note that Bernie Sanders and AOC, for their "Fighting Oligarchy" tour are flying via private je...

I've always enjoyed visiting "Big D." I was there two years ago about this time to give a talk on storms at its Museum of Flight. But, its newspaper can be another matter when it comes to climate-related stories.  The  Dallas Morning News  has published another global warming story; one in which the way the key topic of drying weather in the Metroplex, as presented, is provably wrong.  They claim the following about Dallas' average temperature.  They are correct. After falling from about 1924 to 1984, Dallas' temperatures began to rise after 1984 and have continued to rise since.  Those of us who lived through the winters during the 1970's and early 80's (when the mid-century cooling reached its nadir) are grateful for the milder winters we have today. Still, the increasing temperatures in Dallas and across the world are a fact and they should be mitigated in an intelligent manner (a topic I've written about on many other occasions). However,  the...

This is the rainfall across the Farm Belt during the past two weeks. I apologize for the white state borders but I cannot find a way to adjust the NWS's product. Below is the forecast rainfall to 7pm Monday the 28th. Additional rains will be welcome if they fall slowly enough as much of the area west of the Mississippi is still experiencing mild drought. 

Pope Francis passed away during the night. May he rest in peace. Francis was the first pope from Latin America. Glad he got to rejoice another Easter, the highest celebration in Christianity.  The Catholic Church will now begin the process of selecting a new pope. Generally, 3-5 weeks is the time interval needed. 

5:45pm Third tornado watch of the day. Note this goes until midnight, so it will  be important to keep up on the weather through the evening.  4:45pm Update A second tornado watch is now in effect; this one until 11p. Please note the forecast is for strong  tornadoes.  I am providing updates at Twitter/X   @usweatherexpert .  3:35pm Between now and 6pm, the colored areas (other than gray) have the greater chance of a tornado. Central Missouri has an enhanced tornado risk. 1:52pm We have had a couple of large tornadoes in central Missouri. Now, we have a likely tornado south of Ft. Smith, AR. Please keep an eye on the weather throughout the tornado watch.  12:05p   6:55pm, the watch has expired.  12:05pm   6:52pm - this tornado watch has expired.  The first tornado watch of the day.  Please monitor the weather in these areas! Below Updated at Noon Unfortunately, we have a tornado risk on this Easter Sunday.  As of noon, the...