NBC News published a story about the growing support for a National Disaster Review Board. You will find it here .  Please keep sending notes (or send this story) to your congressional representatives. Keep the momentum going.  Also, great story about the heroism July 4 at the link.   

Second tornado watch issued.  The area tinted in red has an enhanced risk of tornadoes this afternoon and evening.  As of 1:30pm, thunderstorms are forming in Iowa. Please keep an eye on the weather the rest o the afternoon if you live in this area. 

There is a significant risk of tornadoes in the brown area (below).  Please keep up on the latest weather information after about 2pm. In addition, there is a serious chance of damaging winds in the central Great Plains.  Where you see the hatching, thunderstorm-driven wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger are possible. In the red, there is an enhanced  risk of gusts of at least 60 mph and in the yellow area has a significant risk. 

Some wonderful news! At his Senate nomination hearing today, Dr. Neil Jacobs -- President Trump's nominee to head NOAA said , Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) asks Neil Jacobs, President Trump's nominee to lead NOAA, about what changes he would make to weather alerts.... Provided Dr. Jacobs is calling for an independent  board (rather than NOAA's internal " service assessments "),  this is wonderful news! Also.... Dr. Jacobs: please contact me at any time if you believe there is a way that I can assist.  Here is a brief overview of how the proposed board will work. 

This photo diminishes the size of Monument Rocks. They are several stories high and a very cool sight in the middle of the Great Plains.  Here's a shot I took during my visit to the Rocks. If you are in wester Kansas, a visit to Monument Rocks or Jerusalem Rocks is well worth your time. 

Amazing sunset with unusual sky coloring this past Sunday. It was taken in Olathe, Kansas. Note the area at lower right. Those are the correct colors. Photo taken last week. 

As of Friday, 2:40pm, the number of confirmed dead is 121 with 170 missing. A horrible tragedy. --- original text, 8:45pm Tuesday --- Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, in the past half-hour, has released the actual number of missing: "At least 160!" Terrifying.  [original text below] I've received a deluge of comments from multiple sources, so I wish to answer those comments here. My report on the meteorology behind the flood is here .  National Disaster Review Board   You will find more information about the proposed National Disaster Review Board (NDRB) and how it will function here and here .    The State of Texas has suffered nearly 1,200 flood deaths – most in the Hill Country – during the past 55 years. That number is staggering. This past autumn, we lost 249 souls because of Hurricane Helene. In 2011, 161 were killed because of a single tornado in Joplin, MO. National Weather Service tornado warnings are much  less  accurate than 15 years ago. These, and...

Good Tuesday morning, everyone.  The heavy rains in Texas are winding down, thank goodness. However, questions remain about the catastrophic flash floods. I will try to answer some of them later this morning.  There are no threats in the tropics for at least the next week.  No tornadoes are expected today. 

There is a "moderate" (red) risk of flash flooding in the Texas Hill Country today. Please monitor the weather through tonight. Make sure the WEA alerts on your cell phone are turned on. 

While the chance of tornadoes is relatively low, a major damaging wind event is forecast to occur, especially where the red and hatching overlap. Here is the color code: Hatching, wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger forecast to occur Red, enhanced  risk of wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger Yellow, significant risk of wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger Power outages are possible in the red, hatched area. You may wish to bring lawn furniture, trampolines, etc. indoors. 

[Note, no more updates to this story as of 1pm Tuesday;  there is an updated story here .] ...so said the chief executive of Kerr County, Texas, Rob Kelly. He went on to say, "We had no reason to believe that this was going to be anything like what's happened here, none whatsoever."  I'm sorry to report that he is probably correct. The flood was underforecast and the "emergency" warnings were later than they could have been. In fairness, as of the time of this update, 1:30pm Monday, the U.S. Geological Survey has determined this was the highest crest on the Guadalupe River at Hunt, Texas, since the river gauge was installed.  As of 1p Tuesday , 105  have been confirmed to have been killed and "dozens" are missing. Those numbers imply a total death toll near 130. This past autumn, Hurricane Helene killed 249. In 2011, a single tornado killed 161 in Joplin. We must stop these mega-disasters! This is another tragic example of why America desperately n...

Chantal is inland and its winds are weakening.  However, the area in yellow has a "slight" risk of flash flooding per the NWS between now and 8am Monday. 

We don't see clouds shaped like donuts often but here's one from last Sunday night. 

11:30am, Saturday, July 5: 27 confirmed deaths, more than 25 children missing, 270 rescued, "more deaths expected." 9:40pm. The death toll has risen to 24.   9:50pm. The number of missing campers is now 23-25, that is up from earlier.  7:45pm. Thirteen are confirmed dead. This does not count the girls from the camp which accounts for 23 missing. However,  there is (as of 7:15pm) a social media post showing two girls from Camp Mystic being carried into a hospital. This would indicate the number of missing from CM is now 21.  I don't know if these were the two carried into the hospital. 3:50pm. Texas Governor Abbott has announced at 23 children are missing from a single summer camp along the Guadalupe River southwest of Ingram, Texas. There are unconfirmed reports of people missing from other camps. A map of camps and more information is below.  4:05pm. Below is a video of a girl being rescued from a tree by helicopter this morning. State of Texas video....

There is a 70% chance of tropical depression or storm development in the next 48 hours in the area outlined in red. Please monitor the weather along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts through the holiday weekend. 

  We hope you and your family have a happy and safe Independence Day! July 5, 1926, President Coolidge delivered an extraordinary address celebrating the 150th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. It is will worth reading in its entirety . Here is an excerpt:   They preached equality because they believed in the fatherhood of God and the brotherhood of man. They justified freedom by the text that we are all created in the divine image, all partakers of the divine spirit. Placing every man on a plane where he acknowledged no superiors, where no one possessed any right to rule over him, he must inevitably choose his own rulers through a system of self-government. This was their theory of democracy. In those days such doctrines would scarcely have been permitted to flourish and spread in any other country. This was the purpose which the fathers cherished. In order that they might have freedom to express these thoughts and opportunity to put them into action, whole cong...