Friday, June 30, 2023
Today's Tornado Risk
The Huge Number of Drowning Deaths in Rip Currents
Thursday, June 29, 2023
Another Quizzical Tornado Warning
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Part of the roof lifted off |
- Why the obviously wrong direction of movement?
- Why wasn't the wrong direction corrected?
- Why use a tiny town as a geographic reference that wasn't nearby or in the path?
- Why not say, "radar confirmed" -- giving the warning added credibility -- as it was?
Updated 12:10pm: Midwest Derecho In Progress
National Weather Service Tornado Warnings: What Is the Fix?
Wednesday, June 28, 2023
Matador: Another Fatal Tornado Without Adequate Warning
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12:49 UCT = 7:49pm CDT. This was Amarillo NWS's office's chat. |
![]() Lubbock NWS chat |
12:51 UTC = 7:51pm CDT |
- Chaser Daniel Shaw is 3 mi. NNW of Matador, a tornado is 2 miles to his northeast.
- Corbin Voges, a storm chaser, has a brief video (note it is the video that is brief) of a tornado north of Matador.
- Media meteorologist Matt Massey points out to the NWS, which has responsibility for issuing a tornado warning, writes that the velocity data (right panel of above radar image) is "interesting." I believe that was a diplomatic attempt to prod Lubbock to issue a tornado warning.
- Sammy Brence, a chaser meteorologist, was reporting a "large tornado" 3 mile NNW of Matador and that is rain-wrapped, meaning it cannot easily be seen.
- Ben Holcomb is 3 mi. NNE of Matador reporting the tornado is approximately 2 miles north of his position.
- 8:14pm, law enforcement reported that, as of 8:11, there was damage in the City of Matador.
- 8:14pm, Val Castor's (well-respected storm chaser from Ch 9 in Oklahoma City) video feed showed severe damage on the north side of Matador.
Barbara, who recently moved to Matador, recalled little warning when the tornado hit
--- Lubbockonline.com
Nicky Dempsey was heading home with her daughter when she noticed how dark the sky was to the north of her house. She thought it was hail or rain, since she didn’t see anything on the radar. Then she heard the faint sound of sirens and told her family to get in the basement as quickly as they could.
--- Via Texas Tribune
The service’s own figures demonstrate that their warning accuracy has deteriorated by 24%. In addition to the decrease in "probability of detection" (whether a tornado warning is out before the tornado touches down), the lead time (the interval between and warning and the arrival of the storm) has collapsed by a whopping 58% (below).
Since 2020, we don't know what has occurred, although I suspect continued deterioration. The accuracy figures, when they were good, were out in the open. Now, they are behind a password and login.
The bottom line: people are dying because of these issues.
Tuesday, June 27, 2023
Derecho With 100 mph Winds and 3" Hail...
- If friends or family live in a mobile home, call them and suggest they spend the night.
- Power failures are likely. I urge you to prepare.
- Trees will likely fall, If you have a chain saw fill it with fuel. Fill your car with fuel (pumps and chargers don't work) in advance of losing power.
- Get a few extra dollars at the ATM. Cash is valuable when card-readers don't work.
- Make sure the children are aware.
- Pick any ripe tomatoes.
High Risk of Damaging Winds With Tonight's Derecho!
Here is the color code:
- Purple is a high risk of winds of 60 mph or stronger. In addition to the highest risk of damaging winds, giant hail ≥ 2" may occur.
- Red is an enhanced risk.
- Yellow is a significant risk.
- Call friends and relatives to make sure they are aware of the threat, especially if they live in a mobile home.
- Make sure you have at least three ways of receiving storm warnings. Since the threat along and east of Interstate 35 will be at night, StormWarn is a great way to receive information. It worked great at 11:30 last Saturday evening when we had a tornado warning that included my home.
- If you live in a mobile home, you may wish to move spend time with a friend or relative when a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch is issued.
- Ask yourself what you would need if you were without electricity for five days. In some areas it will be longer, but five days is a good planning target. If you think I am exaggerating, some in northeast Oklahoma were without power for a week!
- Battery-operated fans for the same reason (it will be quite hot the next few days)
- In Houston, people died due to carbon monoxide poisoning due to misuse of generators after their windstorm last week. If you have a portable generate, make sure it is full of fuel but -- above all -- follow the manufacturer's instructions for use.
- If you have a chain saw, fill it with fuel.
- Check your tornado shelter. Make sure it has a couple of bottles of water and, if appropriate, diapers.
- Any essential foods or medicines should be taken care of immediately, well before the storms arrive.
- Have all of your devices charged but disconnect when you see the first lightning or hear the first thunder.
- Keep the kids in close communication.
- Bring in lawn furniture, trampolines or anything else that can blow away.
- Put the car in the garage.
- Pick any ripe tomatoes!
Derecho Forecast Update: KS, OK, and Ozarks
- Call friends and relatives to make sure they are aware of the threat, especially if they live in a mobile home.
- Make sure you have at least three ways of receiving storm warnings. Since the threat along and east of Interstate 35 will be at night, StormWarn is a great way to receive information. It worked great at 11:30 last Saturday evening when we had a tornado warning that included my home.
- If you live in a mobile home, you may wish to move spend time with a friend or relative when a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch is issued.
- Ask yourself what you would need if you were without electricity for five days. In some areas it will be longer, but five days is a good planning target. If you think I am exaggerating, some in northeast Oklahoma were without power for a week!
- Battery-operated fans for the same reason (it will be quite hot the next few days)
- In Houston, people died due to carbon monoxide poisoning due to misuse of generators after their windstorm last week. If you have a portable generate, make sure it is full of fuel but -- above all -- follow the manufacturer's instructions for use.
- If you have a chain saw, fill it with fuel.
- Check your tornado shelter. Make sure it has a couple of bottles of water and, if appropriate, diapers.
- Any essential foods or medicines should be taken care of immediately, well before the storms arrive.
- Have all of your devices charged but disconnect when you see the first lightning or hear the first thunder.
- Keep the kids in close communication.
- Bring in lawn furniture, trampolines or anything else that can blow away.
- Put the car in the garage.
- Pick any ripe tomatoes!
"You Can't Fix Stupid"
Monday, June 26, 2023
Derecho Risk Update
- Call friends and relatives to make sure they are aware of the threat, especially if they live in a mobile home.
- Make sure you have at least three ways of receiving storm warnings. Since the threat along and east of Interstate 35 will be at night, StormWarn is a great way to receive information. It worked great at 11:30 last Saturday evening when we had a tornado warning that included my home.
- If you live in a mobile home, you may wish to move spend time with a friend or relative when a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch is issued.
- Ask yourself what you would need if you were without electricity for five days. In some areas it will be longer, but five days is a good planning target. If you think I am exaggerating, some in northeast Oklahoma were without power for a week!
- Battery-operated fans for the same reason (it will be quite hot the next few days)
- In Houston, people died due to carbon monoxide poisoning due to misuse of generators after their windstorm last week. If you have a portable generate, make sure it is full of fuel but -- above all -- follow the manufacturer's instructions for use.
- If you have a chain saw, fill it with fuel.
- Check your tornado shelter. Make sure it has a couple of bottles of water and, if appropriate, diapers.
- Any essential foods or medicines should be taken care of immediately, well before the storms arrive.
- Have all of your devices charged but disconnect when you see the first lightning or hear the first thunder.
- Keep the kids in close communication.
- Bring in lawn furniture, trampolines or anything else that can blow away.
- Put the car in the garage.
- Pick any ripe tomatoes!
Damaging Winds on the East Coast This Afternoon; In the Central Great Plains Tuesday
- Call friends and relatives to make sure they are aware of the threat, especially if they live in a mobile home.
- Make sure you have at least three ways of receiving storm warnings.
- If you live in a mobile home, you may wish to move spend time with a friend or relative when a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch is issued.
- Ask yourself what you would need if you were without electricity for five days. In some areas it will be longer, but five days is a good planning target.
- If you have a chain saw, fill it with fuel.
- Check your tornado shelter. Make sure it has a couple of bottles of water and, if appropriate, diapers.
- Any essential foods or medicines should be taken care of immediately, well before the storms arrive.
- Have all of your devices charged but disconnect when you see the first lightning or hear the first thunder.
- Keep the kids in close communication.
- Bring in lawn furniture, trampolines or anything else that can blow away.
- Put the car in the garage.
- Pick any ripe tomatoes!
- Battery-operated fans for the same reason (it will be quite hot the next few days)
Beyond Absurd
Sunday, June 25, 2023
3:50pm Tornado Risk Update
Midwest Tornado Risk!
- Make sure you have at least three independent ways of receiving storm warnings. These include a weather radio, an app, StormWarn (I can personally vouch that is is excellent), and a nearby siren you are certain you can hear indoors.
- If you live in a mobile home, you may wish to move spend time with a friend or relative when a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch is issued.
- Check your tornado shelter. Make sure it has a couple of bottles of water and, if appropriate, diapers.
- Any essential foods or medicines should be taken into the shelter with you along with any family heirlooms.
- Have all of your devices charged but disconnect them when you see the first lightning or hear the first thunder.
- Keep the kids in close communication.
- Bring in lawn furniture, trampolines or anything else that can blow away.
- Put the car in the garage.
Sunday Fun: Biography of the Coolest Man in America
President Biden Actually Proposed This
Saturday, June 24, 2023
Tornado Watch for Iowa
Today's Tornado Risk, Updated
American Cannot Continue With Two Systems of Justice!
Friday, June 23, 2023
High Plains Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Risk
The radar echoes in Colorado and New Mexico will move east and multiply. They will become severe (large hail and damaging winds) with a chance of producing tornadoes when they arrive in the red outlined area.