Wednesday, June 14, 2023

No, We Cannot Count on Climate Models

I was recently "reprimanded" by a reader of the Washington Post because of my skepticism pertaining to climate models. The fact that the forecast (made in 2001, long enough we could judge its accuracy) was completely wrong didn't seem to matter to him. 

So, I'd like to present another piece of evidence.
Because of the worldwide ban on CFC's, the ozone hole was supposed to have been "fixed" long before now. It isn't. What predicted this? Climate models. 

Long range weather and climate are far more difficult to forecast than the ozone hole. Climate models are not used for seasonal (say, winter 2023-24) forecasting because they are so unreliable. 

So, with all of the talk of climate change in the news recently (Canadian wildfires, tornadoes), if you see the words, "climate model" in the press release or news story (too often the same thing), be immediately skeptical. 

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