UPDATED 3:20pm: Today's Tornado and Derecho Risk

By -
UPDATE: The first watch of the day has been issued. Please follow me on Twitter @usweatherexpert.

-----------
Instead of beginning with the forecast for later today and tonight, I'm going to start with the current power outage map. There are still 397,000 homes and businesses (900,000+ people) without power this region, most from Thursday afternoon and night's storms. There will be people still without power by Monday and Tuesday. 
I bring this up because we are going to have similar storm conditions later today and tonight. 

Forecast for This Afternoon and Tonight

Tornadoes
These forecasts are from the NWS SPC. This is updated (3p) tornado outlook.
The brown areas have a significant risk of tornadoes.

Derecho (Damaging Winds) Updated at 3pm
The red area has an enhanced risk of winds of 75 mph or stronger. The wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger -- will likely accompanied by power failures. However, I would put the hatched area as far north as Highway 400 in Kansas. Please see safety recommendations below. 

SPC has also introduced an area of forecast 60 mph winds in Iowa. 

Hail
The red area has an enhanced risk of hail 1" or larger. The yellow area has a significant risk. Where you see the hatching, the hail may be 2" or larger. 

Safety Suggestions
  • Call friends and relatives to make sure they are aware of the threat, especially if they live in a mobile home. 
  • Make sure you have at least three ways of receiving storm warnings. 
  • If you live in a mobile home, you may wish to move spend time with a friend or relative when a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch is issued. 
  • Ask yourself what you would need if you were without electricity for five days. In some areas it will be longer, but five days is a good planning target.
  • If you have a chain saw, fill it with fuel.
  • Check your tornado shelter. Make sure it has a couple of bottles of water and, if appropriate, diapers.
  • Any essential foods or medicines should be taken care of immediately, well before the storms arrive. 
  • Have all of your devices charged but disconnect when you see the first lightning or hear the first thunder.
  • Keep the kids in close communication. 
  • Bring in lawn furniture, trampolines or anything else that can blow away. 
  • Put the car in the garage. 
I'll update in the mid- to late afternoon. 

Additional suggestions from Liz Leitman at SPC:
  • Pick any ripe tomatoes. 
  • Do laundry in case of extended power failures (quite likely in a derecho)
  • Battery-operated fans for the same reason (it will be quite hot the next few days)
I will not be able to update as frequently as Thursday, but I will keep an eye on things. You can also follow more for more on Twitter @usweatherexpert.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

[1:10am Update] Tornado Forecast for Rest of the Night

By -
Image
Thank you  for coming to read my tornado coverage from Saturday and Saturday night. As there were about 100,000 brand new readers, please allow me to introduce myself. I the retired Sr. VP of AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions and retired Fellow of the American Meteorological Society. Specialized for 50 years in extreme weather forecasts and warnings. I invite you to bookmark this site:   https://www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com/    Timely forecasts of tornadoes, floods, blizzards and hurricanes are provided. On slower weather days we talk about global warming, science and issues of interest to society. On Sundays, we usually lighten things a bit. For real-time storm warning bulletins, you can follow me here:   @usweatherexpert .  Thanks again  for reading! ---Last night's Coverage --- After 16 straight hours, I must call it a night. All of the information below is current as of 1:10am. Thank you for reading and goodnight.  As of 12:35am, much of south central Oklahoma has no electr
Read more

First Tornado Watch of the Day Issued

By -
Image
Unfortunately, the forecast is working out. A tornado watch is already in effect in Oklahoma and Texas.  This watch is in effect until 1pm.  Thunderstorms are developing in the southeast Texas Panhandle. They will move northeast and strengthen. Please keep a close eye on the weather in these areas.  I'll have comprehensive forecast up in 60-90 minutes.
Read more

Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

By -
Image
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding.  Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map.  In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state.  Here is the updated  (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state.  The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
Read more