Unfortunately, the forecast is working out. A tornado watch is already in effect in Oklahoma and Texas.  This watch is in effect until 1pm.  Thunderstorms are developing in the southeast Texas Panhandle. They will move northeast and strengthen. Please keep a close eye on the weather in these areas.  I'll have comprehensive forecast up in 60-90 minutes.

Today was an incredible day, unfortunately.  So far, 94  tornadoes have been reported and it appears that many of them were strong and, perhaps, even violent.  The metropolitan areas of Omaha, Des Moines and Lincoln were all hit. Several rural towns were flattened. Yet, as of this moment (9:46pm), there have been no serious injuries.  That is to the tremendous credit of the National Weather Service, broadcast meteorologists, storm chasers and private sector meteorologists. I spent more than 12 hours today forecasting and warning of the storms. Trying to warn of every storm in time, without false alarms (to the greatest extent possible) is taxing and exhausting. Unfortunately, there is the possibility that we may have to go through another tornado outbreak tomorrow. My forecast is here . I do not know whether will be storm chasing (from which I will post updates to Twitter) or will do another day from home.  It is vital that everyone in these areas pays attention to the weather if they

These are radar-derived low-level rotation maps as of 7pm.  Eastern Nebraska, including the Lincoln-West Omaha + Omaha/Eppley Field Storm. Likely long-track tornado from SE Kansas crossing into western Missouri. Below are individual storm reports:

I believe Saturday presents a major tornado risk to residents of southeast Kansas and much of the east half of Oklahoma.  The color code: The area in red has ( on my 4-point scale of significant/enhanced/high/extreme) a high  risk of strong tornadoes. Strong is defined as EF-2 or stronger. Yellow, hatched has an enhanced  risk of tornadoes. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes.  Below are enlargements of the enhanced and high risk areas: Tornadoes could occur any time Saturday and/or Saturday night. I recommend you monitor the weather throughout the day in these areas.  The entire enhanced and high risk areas are likely to receive giant hail (defined as 2" or larger) with any strong thunderstorms, tornado-producing or otherwise. If you live in a mobile home or a home, in the strongest way possible,  please locate -- today -- a nearby community shelter. You can find them here .  If you shelter at home, please remember: Have a least three independent ways of receiving

Tornado Watch until 11pm. Tornado Watch until 9pm. This watch has been cancelled for Kansas.    Tornado Watch until 9pm.   More tornado watches are below, please scroll down.  Tornado Watch until 7pm. Updated Forecast  The yellow, hatched area has an enhanced risk of tornadoes. The brown area has a significant risk. Kansas City has been removed from the enhanced risk of tornadoes but remains in the significant risk.  Below are close-ups of the tornado risk areas. Please keep up on the weather in these areas, especially if you live in the hatched area. You can follow my real-time updates on Twitter @usweatherexpert.  You may wish to recommend this blog and my Twitter handle to friends and relatives in the affected areas.  If you, for example, live in the mobile home and need a community shelter, a list and map is here .  I am going to make a separate posting for tomorrow's tornado forecast. It should be up early this afternoon. 

I'm working on the latest forecast for today and Saturday's tornado and severe thunderstorm risks.  Severe thunderstorms continue in southeast Oklahoma. 

As predicted (see below), a cluster of thunderstorms will develop over this area and will move northeast during the night. This watch is in effect until 4am Saturday My detailed forecast is below.  Through Tonight There is an enhanced  risk of strong tornadoes in western Kansas (details below) after 2pm and the risk will last until around 1am. There is an enhanced risk of tornadoes in northwest Texas and southern Oklahoma after 9pm and continuing overnight. They are not likely to be strong (of course, all tornadoes are dangerous). The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. I have expanded on the Kansas forecast (2pm until 1am) below: The hatched area has an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. The red area has a high risk of a strong tornado. Apologies for my lack of artistic ability. I have extended the enhanced tornado area a bit farther to the east and, especially, northeast near the predicted location of the warm front.  I will have updates this afternoon and tonight on Twit

Friday and Friday Night This is the forecast for all day Friday as until about 2am Saturday. Here is the color code: Yellow, hatched has an enhanced  risk of strong tornadoes.  ?  = some possibility of having to upgrade the risk in the 4-state area. The upper air indications plus a couple of the models indicate that we may have to elevate the risk in that area. The entire brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes.  Saturday and Saturday Night Here is my forecast for Saturday.  The red area has (on my 4-point scale) a high risk of tornadoes. The orange area has an enhanced risk and the yellow area has a significant risk. While it doesn't seem like it, 48-hours is a long time in tornado forecasting, so this may have to be modified. However, if you live in the areas outlined, please check back with this blog for later forecasts and with local weather information on Saturday. I do frequent updates on Twitter @usweatherexpert. Please follow me for additional updates. Thank you. 

This is a situation where people in the areas of the forecasts should closely monitor the weather. Please make sure friends and relatives are aware of the risks -- especially on Saturday. More below on Saturday's storms.   Thursday and Thursday Night The brown area has a significant risk. The area of yellow hatching has an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. The red area has an even higher risk. Thunderstorms will likely form around mid-afternoon with the higher tornado threat from 6 to 10pm.  Friday and Friday Night The yellow area has a significant risk of tornadoes and/or severe thunderstorms. There is an enhanced  risk of tornadoes in the red area. The hatching is where giant hail (2' or large is forecast to fall). Especially if you live in the red area, keep an eye on the weather Friday. Saturday and Saturday Night I have a bad feeling about Saturday. The first map is SPC's entire forecast area. The yellow is where there is a significant chance of tornadoes/large hail/

Here is the rainfall for the past 48 hours ending at 10am. Even though much of the central United States  The bright orange area are 5 to 7 inch forecasts over the next five days. While much of the area needs rain, that might be too much, too fast. 

The story is here . The clock is ticking. When the soil temperature reaches 65°F, here they come! The map of where the "flying saltshakers of death [and noise!]" is below. Notice, Kansas isn't affected. If you want to get away (I wouldn't blame you), you can come to Wichita and we will entertain you with the River Festival and all of its musical groups (May 31 - June 8) and our first-ever Elsewhere Fest (June 21 and 22) with 70 musical acts. June 8 is also the date of the amazing Symphony in the Flint Hills . When I've attended, I've met people from Florida, California and from all over the nation!  In between acts, you can take in our two water parks (keep cool!), take the kids to Exploration Place , or the Cosmosphere -- generally believed to be the 2nd best space museum in the USA. Near the Cosmosphere is Stratica -- which is an amazing underground cave (see here ).  The Australian travel writers were highly impressed with their visit. Come and visit an

Thursday and Thursday Night Forecast The yellow area has a significant risk of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms (large hail and damaging thunderstorm-generated winds). The orange, hatched area is where there is an enhanced risk  giant hail and tornadoes are more likely. The red oval is where I believe there is a higher risk of tornadoes, especially Thursday evening.  Update:  The NWS has updated their forecast for Thursday and it is below.  Their red area is very similar to my orange area. However, they pull their higher risk area to include Hutchinson and Pratt and it is close to Wichita. Where you see red + hatching in their forecast there is an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes and  hail 2-3" in diameter. Elsewhere, where you see the hatching, there is a risk of tornadoes but the primary risk is hail ≥ 2 inches.  With the potential for strong tornadoes, it is important to monitor the weather Thursday (and Friday, see below). Of course, I will update these forecasts tomorrow. 

White House press secretary "American Climate Corps." Hmm. Are they going to flap their arms when the wind is too calm to turn the wind turbines? Light fires on cold winter days? Stand in front of hurricanes' storm surges to deflect the water? Seriously, this is the way they are described by the White House : The American Climate Corps will focus on equity and environmental justice advancing environmental justice environmental justice agenda tackle climate change  (Are they doing to wrestle the weather to the ground? Sorry, couldn't resist.) The above are direct quotes. I dunno, but this sounds more like a political army (launched just months before an election) to me.  And, better still, they will be coming to your home! Again, directly from the White House: And, if the Climate Corps is going to be doing weatherization, audits, etc., for free, what happens to be people who already do those jobs for a fee? The White House says the Climate Corps will be modeled after R

The amount of graft in 'green' energy is just off the chart, but it is well hidden by the mainstream media. I hope the author of this article has his medical insurance paid up. 

Finally , the NWS has recovered the past two weeks' rainfall amounts and they are depicted for the winter wheat belt below. This rain will be, in part, provided by severe thunderstorms with the potential for tornadoes. Please scroll down. The dry weather from central Kansas to northeast New Mexico, along with adjacent areas, has caused some deterioration of the crop, especially in southwest Kansas.  Here is the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast rainfall amounts for the next seven days.  Please note the area where 5" is forecast in central Missouri. As this area has been fairly dry, I don't think there is much chance of major flooding. However, the area of 4" rains in eastern Oklahoma into the Arkansas Ozarks has received above average rainfall, so people in flood-prone areas should keep an eye on the weather starting Thursday night.  The rain will be a huge boost to the wheat crop but, unfortunately, it does not include much rain for the area of the High Plains

The horror on Maui continues . The news media has largely forgotten the victims of the August fire that killed 101. It is difficult to determine whether their plight is due to incompetence (Hawaii doesn't know how to handle the aftermath of wildfires) or evil (they are trying to force the victims to sell their valuable land for below-market prices). Three days after the fire, it was obvious that a Natural Disaster Review Board would have been tremendously valuable in this case . The NTSB, after which I want to pattern the Disaster Review Board, offers family assistance  to the victims of airline crashes and similar events. That would be an especially valuable service in this case.  We are 9 months after the fire and Fox News is reporting: FSRI investigators are still trying to get some records from the Maui Emergency Management Agency. Research program manager Derek Alkonis said Wednesday that they requested incident activity logs and other records from MEMA on multiple occasions

....I appreciate the books have been purchased as a result of Amazon's recent sale. The current price is still quite attractive. Please take a look at the outstanding reviews Warnings  has received.  Also, we have great photography for spring and summer at our Adobe Stock Photography site. We have several new images depicting wildfires. We are up to more than 150 photographs that primarily depict weather and other natural phenomena.  Please check them out. 

The good news: With high pressure covering much of the nation, strong and severe thunderstorms are suppressed for the next few days.  Unfortunately, it preliminary appears that our break in strong storms will end about Thursday with a period of intermittent severe thunderstorms lasting to Saturday. And, there are indictions that, with breaks, the severe thunderstorms may last into the week of the 28th.  Below is a general outline of where severe thunderstorms with potential tornadoes could occur from Thursday to Saturday.  The 7-day rainfall amount forecast reflects the heavier rainfall amounts from the strong thunderstorms.  Please check back from time to time this week and I'd appreciate it if you will tell your friends about this source for forecasts of extreme weather. 

We just had another item on this topic. Did you know the weather was homophobic?! This posted at 12:33pm Sunday afternoon.  --- original posting --- Professors get paid to publish papers, regardless of their quality or usefulness. These days, if you put the phrase "climate change" on it, it will get published.  This is probably impossible to follow this but changes in ice -- supposedly due to global warming -- has the earth spinning less fast than was forecast  (the earth was supposed to speed up more). One would think that is a good thing but, since it is global warming it must be bad .  It indirectly causes nausea since EV's wouldn't be a thing without global warming.  And, finally, breathing is bad because it causes global warming. Can global warming zealots get any more idiotic? [yes, probably...just wait a week]