Here's the latest forecast for Milton.  Do not focus on the "M" (major) symbol but rather the white shading. That will be the zone in which the eye will make landfall. The storm has weakened this morning as dry air has come in from the west. However, it will still be a major hurricane (I'd estimate 115 mph) at landfall. It is critical to remember that the surge is baked in. While we cannot forecast the exact  point of highest surge due to the uncertainty of the exact spot of landfall, all of the Florida Gulf Coast should evacuate where under evacuation orders.  Radar at 11:16am. The arrow is pointing at the eye. More the tornado warnings (red polygons) over the Peninsula.  A tornado watch is in effect for Florida south of I-4.  Flooding is likely  with this vast amount of rain, especially near and ~50 miles north of I-4. 

  Now is the time to rush preparations to completion!  We can now see Milton on radar. As of 9:12 am,  Current maximum sustained winds are 155 mph. The eye of Milton is a little less impressive than it was even 20 minutes ago. Some dry air is entering (arrow) which means the well-forecast wind weakening in the eye is underway. However, the weakening will be limited as the storm is forecast to have 130 mph winds at landfall. Also, the wind weakening will have no bearing on the catastrophic storm surge.  Below is the 8am forecast track.  Look how much larger the wind field for tropical storm force winds (amber) and hurricane force winds (brown) are as compared to yesterday. Winds will be increasing along the Gulf Coast later this morning. There is an enhanced risk of strong  tornadoes in the hatched area. There is an enhanced risk of tornadoes in general in the yellow area. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes.  Near and just north of I-4, there is the likelihood of a foot

The Hurricane Hunters just measured a surface wind of 184 mph just after 9pm. The satellite image from 9:17pm. This is an exceptionally powerful hurricane that will bring a killer storm surge as well as powerful winds. While I turned them off so you could see the eye, there is still lightning in the eye, which indicates it is not weakening. 

Per the National  Hurricane Center at 5pm, Milton is back up to Cat 5 with 165 mph or even a little stronger winds. The eye is filled with lightning; meaning the storm may intensify further. At 5:30pm Hurricane Hunters found the pressure has dropped very rapidly the past 4 hours. The short-term outlook is more strengthening.  Having done this for more than 50 years, something about this hurricane looks "mean." I notice that other meteorologists have the same assessment. While that is instinct, the science backs it up. The storm now has 165+ mph winds and the pressure is a low 923 below 905 902 millibars (6:50pm EDT). Too words: Get Out!  if you are in an evacuation zone. You will find a link to some great evacuation tips at a link, below.  Milton will cause widespread long-duration  power failures across Florida. Water and sewer service will likely fail as they did with Andrew. For example, it is day 12 and more than 176,000 homes and businesses are still without power fro

Milton will be a major hurricane at landfall. All preparations should be finished by 8am Wednesday.  Hurricane Milton at 9:45am EDT.  Most recent Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates the maximum winds in the storm are still 145 mph with a lowest barometric pressure of 929 millibars.  The National Hurricane Center's forecast is below.  The forecast wind speed at landfall is 125 mph. Milton is forecast to cross the Florida Peninsula as a hurricane, thus hurricane warnings (red) the entire width of the state.  Color codes: Red = hurricane warning Blue = tropical storm warning (winds of 40 to 73 mph) Pink = hurricane watch Yellow = tropical storm watch Amber = tropical storm force winds. Brown = hurricane force winds. This is a good representation of the forecast winds.  There is going to be a killer storm surge if people do not get out of the way.   In the purple area, the storm surge is forecast to be 10 to 15 feet above sea level. Of course, there will be higher waves on top of the s

As of 10pm, the storm has weakened just a bit with 165 mph winds and rising pressures. However, the forecast below is essentially unchanged with a 125 mph sustained winds hurricane and a crushing storm surge at landfall. --- original postings --- Official Hurricane Warnings Up For Tampa and Parts of the Florida Gulf Coast! As of 5pm EDT: Wind speeds 180 mph sustained winds with gusts to 200+ mph. Pressure 897 millibars. Winds forecast to  strengthen to 185 sustained during the night.  Something about this storm just looks mean. Although I have turned the lightning display off, there is considerable lighting in the eye -- still. That mean it is still strengthening or attempting to strengthen. The storm is currently moving due east at 9 mph. There has been a little bit of a slight bit of northern movement during the past hour or so.  Please note (pink) that hurricane-force winds are forecast to be possible all the way to Jacksonville, Cape Canaveral and Melbourne. The red is where hurric

There is later information. Please go here to view it.  -- 1:40pm Posting -- Based on new data from the Hurricane Hunters, it appears winds are 175 mph and it looks like the central pressure has dropped to about 912 millibars.  The Hurricane Center says its winds are 175 mph. They are at least that. The "vortex message," a route message from the Hurricane Hunters, has winds even stronger.  You will find information on current  evacuation orders here .  Note: the hurricane may weaken due to its interaction with the Yucatan Penninsula on its way east then northeast. It is not  expected to be as strong as it is when it strikes Florida. However, like Katrina, the storm surge Milton is now creating will be devastating.  -- 12:55pm posting -- I agree with Dr. Cowan's interpretation of the newest Hurricane Hunter data. -Wind gusts are to 175 mph, pressure 925 millibars- 11:46am EDT satellite image. The pressure has dropped an amazing 22 mb in 4 hours down to 933 millibars.  ---

I am getting many inquiries about weather modification -- from email to Twitter  (as with the item below)  and I'd like to clear the air a bit. Please read my qualifications at the bottom.  Snow Increases There is one area in which weather modification in which mild success is documented.  In mountainous areas during winter, silver iodide generators can put that (not harmful) chemical into low-lying clouds and increase the amount of snow 5 to 15% over what would have fallen anyway. The qualification is because if nothing would have fallen anyway, weather modification cannot do any good. The illustration above is incorrect in that the mountains need to be in the clouds or almost in them.  Hail Suppression In the summer, especially in the High Plains of the U.S., and in other parts of the world, there have been efforts to suppress hail to limit crop damage with the added benefit of limiting damage to buildings, et cetera.  For hail suppression, aircraft fly silver iodide generators u

At 8:12am, Milton continues to strength in the Gulf. Evacuation orders are going out today: Please follow them! Milton is a small, but extremely powerful, hurricane. You can see the pinpoint eye above.  At 8:13am, the satellite image (with lightning activated on the display) shows intense lightning near the eye.  Lightning near the eye is a bad sign as it means intensification. Winds have increased to 150 mph and the pressure is 945 940 mb and dropping rapidly. It will probably reach Cat 5 status.  Here is the updated (7a) forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Color codes: Red = hurricane warning.  Blue = tropical storm warning. Pink = hurricane watch. Yellow = tropical storm watch. In addition to a hurricane watch, a devastating storm surge is forecast along much of the Florida Gulf Coast. While out at sea, Milton is forecast to strengthen to 155 mph winds and then have 125 mph at landfall. This will be somewhat like Katrina that had extreme winds out to sea which create

Satellite image at 2:25pm CDT shows intensifying Hurricane Milton developing an eye. The storm has maximum winds of 80 mph and the central pressure has dropped to 988 millibars.  3pm CDT My forecast for the point of landfall for the eye has barely changed since yesterday.  I am forecasting the eye to make landfall between the two arrows. However, in addition to the danger of winds in the eyewall, there will be a life-threatening storm surge! For example, if the eye passes just north of Tampa Bay and it reaches at least Cat 2 intensity, there will be places that experience a storm surge of more than 9 feet above sea level. By far, the worst storm surge effects will be near and south of the eye.  The intensity forecast is rather difficult. The models are all over the map. My best forecast at this point is that the storm will be Cat 2 or 3 at landfall. Cat 4 is certainly possible. That is sufficient to cause serious damage. The fact the storm will strike the coast at or near a 90° angle w

I am sorry to report that Milton is already a hurricane with 80 mph winds and a central pressure of 988 millibars. I'm quite worried about the Florida Gulf Coast and am beginning to work on an updated forecast. 

Milton is strengthening rapidly.  Satellite image 9:45am CDT The central pressure is officially down to 991 with 65 mph winds. The cloud pattern is much more impressive than earlier. The main part of Milton is in the (red) circle of clouds at left. There are good meteorological reasons to believe Milton will begin to rapidly intensify this afternoon and tonight. NHC's forecast has been adjusted a bit to the south with winds forecast to reach 125 mph.  While it will be smaller geographically than Helene's, the storm surge will be a major threat.  Preparation Suggestions: Make sure you have adequate food and water for at least a week after the storm. Fill your generator if you have one, with fuel. Fuel your car. Same with your chainsaw if you have one. Trees will fall. Refill prescriptions.  Make sure you know the sea level elevation of your home. If you don't know, use the "compass" app on your iPhone. Put it on the floor of a room of your home and it will tell you