Validation of July 1 Tornado Mini-Forecast

Whenever possible, I like to narrow down tornado danger areas. I issued one of my mini-forecasts Monday afternoon on Twitter/X. See below. 
At 4:29pm I forecast tornadoes within the blue outline from 5 until 6:30pm.  

What actually happened?
The red dots are the locations of tornadoes. The first was at 5:51pm and within the forecast area. All of the rest of the tornadoes were in the mini-forecast except for the easternmost which was just past the forecast. However, the more eastern two tornadoes occurred after 6:30. I have a tendency to end these forecasts too soon, so it is something I need to keep in mind. 

How would I grade this forecast? B. 


Popular posts from this blog

Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

Dangerous Travel Conditions - People Reportedly Stranded

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over