Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - 9:30pm

After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this).

Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night. 

Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation!

5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas. 
Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail.

Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm 
In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!! Do not wait until a tornado warning is issued.

2:50pm My tornado forecast valid 5pm until 11pm for the area enclosed in red. I am issuing this because of the holiday week and requests for planning purposes. The is a dangerous situation. 
Strong tornadoes are possible along with hail to 3" and damaging thunderstorm-generated winds to 60 mph. I will have a forecast for Oklahoma and parts of Texas in a few minutes. 

  • Keep your laptop and smartphone on the charger until the first thunder. Take them off as lightning-caused power surges can damage them. 
  • Get your storm shelter ready to go, including a couple of water bottles, diapers, family heirlooms, and shoes -- not flip-flops. If the worst happens, you don't want to be walking on broken glass and metal shards barefoot.

Reminder: I will be providing frequent updates on Twitter @usweatherexpert. I would be honored if you recommend me to others if you like my coverage. 

Regular tornado watch in effect in Texas
Please note that softball-sized hail and win gusts of 70 mph are also forecast to occur in this area. 

Updated Tornado and Damaging Wind Forecasts as of 5pm

If you need a public shelter, go here

I will be providing real-time updates on Twitter @usweatherexpert.  Please follow me while you are thinking about it. 

This will be my last forecast for this afternoon through tonight's storms. I'll be updating the forecast forecast for Sunday around 12:45pm. I will also update any tornado watches, etc. Please bookmark:  for whenever you want weather and related information. 

Tornado Threat, 5:30 pm to 6am Sunday- Updated at 5pm Saturday

The NWS has extended their tornado threat forecasts farther east into the Ozarks and the Missouri Bootheel. 

Note the brown area has been extended into the DFW Metroplex. 
Color dode:
  • Red, hatched = high risk of strong tornadoes. In Oklahoma, this seems like a nearly sure thing. In Kansas, it will depend on the moisture return. Dangerous thunderstorms will probably be delayed a bit in Kansas with little threat before 5pm. FYI: "high" is the second highest category on my four-point scale with the very rare extreme being the worst. 
  • Yellow, hatched = enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. This extends into northwest Texas. 
  • Brown = significant risk of tornadoes.
Damaging Thunderstorm-Generated Wind Forecast, 4pm to 6am Sunday

The damaging wind forecast, with gusts above 75 mph, has been extended east into the Ozarks. 

Once the worst of the tornadoes have ended, it appears a squall line will form that will sweep from northwest to southeast -- causing wind gusts of 80 mph, perhaps stronger. The color code:
  • Hatching = wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger.
  • Purple = high risk of 75 mph or stronger winds.
  • Red = enhanced risk of 75 mph or stronger winds. 
  • Yellow = significant risk of 60 mph or stronger winds. 
If the winds develop as forecast, power outages and tree damage is likely. Note: if you are planning on camping this weekend, tents will not be able to protect from these winds. 

Large and Giant Hail Forecast, 3pm Saturday to 2am Sunday
Giant hail of 2 -4 inches in diameter is possible with these storms. 
  • Hatching = hail 2" or larger is possible. 
  • Purple = giant hail is likely with any thunderstorm.
  • Red = enhanced risk of giant hail risk.
  • Yellow = signifiant risk o 1-2" hail. 
I know that we busted a similar forecast three weeks ago. However, with the exception of the arrival of moisture in southern Kansas, the data indicates we should have confidence in this forecast. So, I urge you stay weather-aware and take any warnings seriously. 

Note: there is a likelihood of severe thunderstorms farther east both Sunday and Memorial Day. I'll have an update on those forecasts this afternoon.


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