Today and Holiday Weekend Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Forecast

I am most concerned about today and -- especially -- Saturday and Sunday.

Late This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a significant risk of tornadoes in the brown area. The more likely times is 3 to 10pm.

There is an enhanced risk wind gusts of 60 mph in the red area and a significant risk in the yellow area. Where you see hatching, gusts may be 75 mph or stronger. The stronger winds are likely after sunset.

Friday and Friday Night

No widespread tornadoes or damaging winds are forecast. If that changes, I will update the forecast tomorrow. 

Saturday and Saturday Night
There is an enhanced risk of tornadoes, damaging winds (70 mph or stronger) and giant hail in the red, hatched area. It will be important to monitor the weather in this area.

The yellow area has a significant risk of damaging winds and, possibly, hail. 

I'm watching this situation closely. 

Sunday and Sunday Night

The orange area has an enhanced risk of tornadoes, damaging thunderstorm winds and large hail with a significant risk in the yellow area. Given the large number of recreational lakes in this region, it will be especially important to monitor the weather throughout the day. 

Monday and Monday Night
After looking at the models, especially the ECMWF, I believe the area enclosed by the yellow line has a significant chance of thunderstorms with high winds and, perhaps, some hail on Memorial Day. However, this is a preliminary forecast as four days is relatively distant in time for this type of forecast.


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