Friday, December 31, 2021

Reminder: Overnight Tornado Threat

We've already had a couple of tornadoes in Alabama and Georgia. But, the main tonight threat will be after midnight and will continue tomorrow. There is also an increasing threat of flooding throughout the Mid-South. 

Here is the overall threat area in brown. 

I have focused in on two areas where I think the tornado threat is a little higher until 8am.
The threat here begins around 11pm.

Scroll down for the tornado forecast for after 7am New Years Day.  

The second area is from 2am to 8am. 

There is a flood threat throughout the green area.
FYI: Pink is a winter storm warning and purple is a winter weather advisory. 

Betty White, RIP

Betty White has passed away at the age of 99. While she played numerous roles in Hollywood, my favorite was Sue Ann Nivens, the Happy Homemaker, on the Mary Tyler Moore Show. To set up the above scene, Sue Ann was a viper behind the scenes and adopted a sweet-as-honey personna on the air. In this clip. they asked Sue Ann, try out as as co-anchor with blowhard anchorman Ted Baxter (played by Ted Knight). 

May she rest in peace. 

HEADS UP: Tornado and Flood Risk Later Today and Tomorrow

I'm sorry to report that we have a tornado risk later tonight and an even more serious tornado risk tomorrow (January 1).  There is also a serious flood risk due to heavy rains in an area with saturated soils. 

The area in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes between midnight and 6am Thursday. It will be important to have a method for receiving a tornado warning that will awaken you during the night in case a tornado warning is issued. 

Saturday and Saturday Night
Unfortunately, it looks like a we will have a tornado outbreak -- including strong tornadoes. The hatched area is where strong tornadoes are forecasted to occur. 

The yellow area has an enhanced risk of tornadoes.  
The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. 

Serious Flood Risk
There is a serious risk of heavy rains and serious flooding in the green-shaded areas. Please monitor the weather in these areas and think about what you would do to if flooding develops in your area. 

Keep in mind that it is never a good idea to drive or walk through flooded areas. 

Winter Storm Forecast for New Year's Weekend

Updated: NWS watches and warnings as of 10:25am. 

Here is a color code:
  • Pink is winter storm warning. 
  • Deep green is a winter storm watch. 
  • Purple is a winter weather advisory (lesser condition)
  • Green is a flood watch. 

Here is the forecast snow accumulations

Click to enlarge
I'm still concerned there are some areas between I-70 and I-80 could have amounts a little larger than what is forecast here but this is the best forecast I can come up with at this time. Over southern Kansas and northern Missouri the snow will occur toward the end of the event. 

Sleet/Ice Pellets
Snow amounts will be cut a bit by the considerable amount of sleet forecasted to fall. 

Freezing Rain
Freezing rain is what causes power failures, trees to fall, and roads to be incredibly hazardous. I don't believe there will be sufficient accumulations for power failures or tree problems. 

Temperatures at 5pm Saturday

Wind Chills at 8am Sunday
In all, this will be a major winter weather event. Tomorrow will be mild across the region and would be better for traveling, either by air or auto. I recommend considering an earlier departure if you were planning to travel this weekend. 

Colorado's Horrific Marshall Fire

The sunrise photos out of Colorado are tragic beyond belief. It is as if a wide EF-4 intensity tornado had pushed through this area. A still tax deductible for 2021 to Salvation Army Disaster Relief would be a great way to help. 

Reminder for Today and For 2022

It is vital to have more than one reliable way to receive vital storm warnings. 

Thursday, December 30, 2021

Note to Readers

 At 10:08pm, I'm still working on the forecasts. 

I expect to have them posted by 10:45. 

Note to Readers - Winter Storm Forecast

As of the 4pm data, my winter storm forecast (below) still looks pretty good. The amounts may be a bit greater in the heavier snow area and the icy area may need to be extended farther into Illinois. 

Below is the current NWS watches and warnings. Click to enlarge. 

I will make a new forecast late this evening.

Latest Review of "Warnings"

Given all of the storms of December, this is book is more timely than ever. And, here's the newest Amazon review of Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather.
If you enjoy this blog, I hope you will purchase my book. 

Wednesday, December 29, 2021

First Winter Storm Forecast Map

Here is my initial forecast of snow and ice from 5pm Friday to 6pm Saturday evening. Additional accumulations will occur into Illinois, Wisconsin and Lower Michigan beyond 6pm Saturday.

I'll have an update Thursday afternoon. 

Note to Readers

 I expect to have an update on the weekend winter storm prospects late this evening. 

Updated Tornado Risk Forecast

The NWS's Storm Prediction Center has added a hatched area to its earlier tornado outlook. The hatching means they are forecasting "strong" tornadoes to occur. 

To recap: 
  • The yellow area has an enhanced risk of tornadoes.
  • The brown area has a significant risk. 
If you live in these areas please follow the weather for the rest of today and into this evening. 

As of 10:40am, thunderstorms are beginning to form over the region. 

Today's Tornado Risk

The yellow area has an enhanced risk of tornadoes.

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes later today and this evening. 

Please keep an eye on the weather today. 

Tuesday, December 28, 2021

HEADS UP: Weekend Travelers

Here is the output of three of the primary models we use for medium range forecasting. All call for significant snows in the Friday (31st) through Sunday (2nd) period. But, there is little lock-on yet as to location of the heaviest of snows. Experience and model bias indicates the more southern models may be the more likely to be correct. 

However, if you wish to avoid snow and ice, you may wish to travel Thursday or wait until the storm passes and road crews have about 12 hours to finish their work. 

Of course, I'll have much more on this storm as the week progresses. 

Tornado Risk in the South and Mid-South Tomorrow

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Please keep up on the weather in these areas. I'll have more tomorrow. 

Make Sure You Have Multiple Ways to Receive Storm Warnings

Monday, December 27, 2021

How Medicine Got COVID Safety So Wrong and What to Do Now

On two occasions (here and here) in 2020, I used the term "miasma" when discussing medical officials' inexplicable advice to the public pertaining to COVID. In the earlier of the two pieces, I wrote:
My point was that the advice they were giving was appropriate if COVID spread through contaminated air. But Dr. Fauci, CDC and WMO were confusingly telling us that it spread through "droplets" (there are many other articles in addition to the one at the link that state the droplet hypothesis). The two -- droplets vs contaminated air -- are contradictory in the way transmission occurs and how to protect ourselves. 

In a fascinating investigative report in Wired, it turns out the miasma theory is correct when it comes preventing the spread of COVID in the sense that airborne coronavirus virons (small enough to be aerosols* -- a term also used in meteorology) suspended in the air create an invisible cloud of "bad air." Spend enough time in it and you are at serious risk of contracting COVID -- regardless of whether you ever get within six feet of someone with the disease.

To quote the article,
 He seemed to view Wells’ ideas about airborne transmission as retrograde, seeing in them a slide back toward an ancient, irrational terror of bad air—the “miasma theory” that had prevailed for centuries. Langmuir dismissed them as little more than “interesting theoretical points.”

In other words, the medical establishment thought COVID could not spread through "bad air." Except, it does! Returning to the Wired article:

ON FRIDAY, APRIL 30, the WHO quietly updated a page on its website. In a section on how the coronavirus gets transmitted, the text now states that the virus can spread via aerosols.. As Zeynep Tufekci noted in The New York Times, perhaps the biggest news of the pandemic passed with no news conference, no big declaration. If you weren’t paying attention, it was easy to miss.

But Marr was paying attention. She couldn’t help but note the timing. She, Li, and two other aerosol scientists had just published an editorial in The BMJ, a top medical journal, entitled “Covid-19 Has Redefined Airborne Transmission.” For once, she hadn’t had to beg; the journal’s editors came to her. 

The prevailing advice we've been given: social distancing (3-6 ft.), frequently washing hands, et cetera, does almost nothing to prevent the spread of COVID. 

Based on what I have read in the Wired article and elsewhere, here is what I would do to prevent myself from getting or spreading the disease:
  • Excellent ventilation: with outside or specially filtered air. The notion, spread by several politicians, that you should not go outdoors due to COVID risk is absurd. The wide open outdoors is one of the best things you can do for yourself. Open windows. Use fans. Put fans in windows. 
  • Masks: But, if you want to really protect yourself, use an N-95 mask that is well-fitted. Paper masks are okay. Cloth masks do little or nothing
  • Ultraviolet lights: Years ago, I read that these are very effective -- a point also made in Wired  -- but had "fallen out of favor in the United States." The Wired article indicates that they are effective ways to kill disease. If you have an office or other place where people gather, look into it!
It is interesting that an atmospheric scientist helped to find the correct theory of COVID transmission. But, we can hardly pat ourselves on the back as some of us stubbornly rejected Dr. Fujita's downburst hypothesis. 

And, this isn't the first time the medical establishment has been stubbornly wrong about a scientific discovery that, if accepted based on its merits, would have saved millions of lives -- the new science that showed ulcers were caused by a bacterium rather than stress.  

In both of the above cases, and in many others, well-documented new science was fatally slow to be accepted because it turned the existing scientific "consensus" upside down. This is why you read me writing about how "consensus" in global warming is so dangerous. Science is about what can be demonstrated, reproduced and proven -- it is never about opinion. 

* Definition of aerosols: Tiny suspended solid particles (dust, smoke, etc.) or liquid droplets that enter the atmosphere from either natural or human (anthropogenic) sources. The key word is "suspended." They float in the air for considerable periods of time. 

Sunday, December 26, 2021

Yes, A Tornado Struck Near Santa Barbara

Whenever a tornado strikes California, the news media becomes discombobulated. They want to believe California doesn't get tornadoes when it usually is struck by several each year. Note the scare quotes around the word tornado below:
Daily Mail 
I looked at the radar for 8:42 pm PST Christmas evening and found the tornado just west of Santa Barbara. 
The green and red "couplet" indicates the location of the tornado as moved inland. 

Remember: tornadoes occur in all 50 United States. 

Warnings: For Your Gift Cards

As has been the case three of the last four Christmas seasons, Amazon was out of Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather for most all of the month of December. 😒

They are taking orders again, so if you wish to use your gift card for a great gift, click here

Sunday Fun: White House's Latest Attempt to Encourage Boosters

You'll remember (or, more mercifully, you've forgotten) a weirdo named "Benny Drama" the White House paid (with our tax $$) this past summer to encourage people to get vaccinated. 

Evidently, that wasn't enough. So, if you will click here, you will hear the White House acapella choir sing soulfully about booster shots. Oy!!

Saturday, December 25, 2021

Merry Christmas, Everyone!!

Hope Santa has brought you what you wanted. I also hope it is the most joyous Christmas ever!!

Friday, December 24, 2021

The TV Meteorologist Who Saved Lives in Kentucky

The Poynter Institute has published a wonderful story about the local meteorologist who saved so many lives during the December 10 tornadoes

I would extend the praise to all of the meteorologists across the nation who worked the extreme storms of December, 2021. 

Thursday, December 23, 2021

Drought Ending in the West

Here is the forecast precipitation for the next 15 days. 

For now through seven days (6pm CST Dec. 30).

From day 8 to 15. 

By the time we get to about January 13, the drought will be about over. I am not able to offer a forecast beyond that time, unfortunately. 

He's Nothing But a Fear Monger

Why does anyone take him seriously?

Wednesday, December 22, 2021

UPDATED: Weather Pattern Change Coming

Here is the updated Palmer Drought Index with data as of the 16th.

Note there are now a few small areas of blue (wetter than average) in California and Nevada! The forecast precipitation for the next seven days calls excessive amounts along the West Coast. 

However, there are indications that the pattern will change around January 1. Below is a map of forecast high temperatures on New Year's Day. 
The extreme cold that has been bottled up in Canada will finally move south and it looks like it may stay a while. 

The 8-14 day precipitation outlook (published Dec. 21) is forecasting above normal in the Great Plains after two months of well below normal rainfall.
Here's the problem: if we have a trend to colder weather combined with above normal precipitation (snow), the supply chain issues we have seen across the nation will likely worsen. Stay tuned. 

Update: Here are today's 8-14 Day Outlook. There are a couple of changes worth discussing. 
This new set of forecasts agrees pretty much with the trends I discussed above. For the first time this season, the arctic air will get as far south and east as New Mexico, northern Oklahoma and Michigan. Once it sets in, it will probably stay a while.

If one combines the more extensive article air with above normal precipitation = a lot of snow. That heights my concern about additional supply chain and electric power supplies issues. 

How? Magical Thinking!

A number of us keep making this point but Big Environment keeps assuring us that all will be well. It won't. We need to stop with the unreliable windmills and embark on an urgent program to build nuclear and hydro power plants as quickly as possible. 

Tuesday, December 21, 2021

Drought-Breaking Rain and Snow in the West the Next Seven Days

Up to December 11th (latest available), the Palmer Drought Index showed remarkable improvement in the West compared to November 1st.

December 11 Palmer Drought Index (most recent)

November 1 Palmer Index
The current map shows far less area in "extreme" drought. 

The forecast for the next seven days calls for heavy to even excessive rain and snow in the West. 
Precipitation Forecast to 6pm CST December 28
Parts of the Sierra will receive 15+ inches of rain and melted snow. Extreme snowfall is forecasted in the Colorado mountains as well as in Utah. Flooding could develop in California by January 1. 

The worsening drought in the Great Plains will continue for the next seven days. However, there are indications of a pattern change in the upper atmosphere around January 1. That would be colder and wetter than the pattern we've been in during most of December. 

I hope to have more on the changing weather pattern tonight or tomorrow.  

Monday, December 20, 2021

What Happened to Ham in Restaurants?

One of my favorite restaurants in the world is Jack Stack Bar-B-Que in Kansas City. I've been eating there since my father used to purchase their "49er" sandwich (called the Jack Stack Sandwich before it was discontinued) in 1957 when it was on Troost. It was brisket, ham, lettuce and their sauce on a delicious roll. During the last few months when I have ordered it, I was told it was discontinued. Now, I've learned the restaurant no longer serves ham -- at all. 

We came back from KC today and it was the first time I can remember not visiting. Without ham, I'm not as interested. 

On the way back from KC, I went into Arby's, ordered their ham sandwich, and was told they no longer serve ham (I guess they no longer have "the meats"). 

So, I did a little internet research and found the following no longer serve ham:
What's going on? What happened to ham?

Any one know what is behind this? Please let me know. 

Meanwhile, I probably will not go to delis or bar-b-que places that don't serve ham. 

The Fragility of the Electric Grid

More warnings of power failures this winter. 

And, the more electric cars + more wind turbines = the worst things are. 

Can you heat your home if there is a prolonged power outage this winter???

Saturday, December 18, 2021

In Spite of What the MSM Says, the Recent Tornadoes Were Not Caused by Global Warming

A distinguished professor of meteorology from the University of Washington opines

And, damage from tornadoes is decreasing. 
1950 is chosen for the start point because that is when records began. 

And, violent tornadoes (like December 10's) are much less frequent than 50 years ago.
Official NOAA data

Tornado Threat in Texas and Louisiana

The brown area, which includes Houston, Beaumont and Lake Charles, has a significant chance of tornadoes. Please monitor the weather in this region.