Midnight Hurricane Beryl Update

At midnight...
The west side of the storm has rapidly eroded while the east side has strengthened. Winds aloft have increased considerably with widespread winds in the 80-90 mph range. The wind speeds are being measured by both Doppler radar near Houston and by a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the storm. The winds will make their way to the surface during the night 

12:15am: Pressure has dropped to 982 mb and maximum wind speeds are now ~80 mph per Hurricane Hunter data 
The center of the storm is at the "C" and the highest winds aloft outlined and marked with a W. It is entirely possible Galveston and Houston will have gusts near 80 mph. 


As 11pm, Beryl is back to hurricane force.
Sustained winds are 75 mph. See below for more details on my forecast. 

At 11:15, it looks like Hurricane Beryl has taken a bit of a 
left turn. Don't whether it is temporary. Regardless,
wind speeds will be increasing along the coast until sunrise. 


10:50pm
Tornado watch until 10am CDT for the area in yellow. Please make sure you have some way of receiving warnings during the night.

Below is the radar at 10:49pm. Note the lightning flashes near the center which indicates the trend toward intensification will continue. 


10pm Update: Radar, lightning, and satellite show a clear increase in high wind coverage.  Maximum sustained wind speed is still 70mph but it will increase during the night. However, it appears that the increase will be gradual and I believe our forecast of peak winds of ~90 mph at landfall will work out reasonably well. Current central barometric pressure is 986 mb. 

The center of what should be Hurricane Beryl will cross the coast between Matagora Bay and Freeport -- probably closer to Freeport --tomorrow morning. 

The first tornado warning for Beryl was just issued a few minutes ago, just to the southwest of Freeport. Please scroll down for the area threatened by tornadoes. Make sure you have a system that will awaken you if a tornado warning is issued. 

Radar at 9:50pm. There is still occasional lightning. The higher winds are reaching the coast at this time.




7:07pm. We have two lightning bolts in the redeveloping eye of Beryl. That is a nearly sure sign of intensification. It is time -- now -- to complete preparations. I believe my 90 mph sustained winds at landfall will be correct, perhaps even a bit conservative. The NHC says winds could be as high as 110 mph. 

Also, the tropical storm warning has been extended into far southeast Texas. 



6:55pm. The pressure has dropped to 986 mb and the winds have increased to 70 mph. 
The radar at 6:47pm looks more impressive than it has all day but a tight eye has not developed, which is probability necessary for rapid strengthening. I've drawn an extrapolated path of the center of the storm. The stronger winds are on the northeast side of the storm, so it looks like Houston will see significant power outages-- after suffering through the derecho in spring. I expect maximum sustained winds to be around 90 mph at landfall. 

I will have another update around 10:15 this evening. 


4pm Forecast Update. Please scroll down to see the increased storm surge depth as forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The central barometric pressure in Beryl has dropped from 992 this morning to 988 millibar at mid-afternoon. While that is a sign if strengthening, neither radar, satellite nor Hurricane Hunter wind measurements show increasing wind speed. I believe we are doing to need to see increasing organization fairly soon if the NHC's forecasts of up to 110 mph winds are to come to pass. 

From my friend Craig Setzer, "The storm should strengthen overnight, and could be on it's way to [rapid intensification] (35mph increase/24 hours) just as it makes landfall, as NHC says, but I don't expect a Harvey nor Alicia Houston event. Cat 1 hurricane, lots of power outages, trees/branches down, some street flooding."


2pm Discussion: Radar shows Beryl undergoing a gradual intensification trend. There is considerable concern by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and some concern by yours truly that Beryl could undergo "rapid intensification" between now and landfall Monday morning given warm water and low wind shear. The forecast wind map from NHC (below) assumes rapid intensification will occur. 

Please note the forecast of winds up to 110 mph! I think winds this strong are unlikely.
Note that Houston is in the area where winds are forecast to be
in the 58 to 73 mph range. There will be power outages as a result. 
There will be widespread power outages in the red area. 

Radar Radar Depictions
3:57pm radar

Beryl Radar at 1:50pm
I have circled the redeveloping eye. The storm is moving to the north northwest. 

Tropical Storm Beryl at 10:37am

NHC recommends preparations be "rushed to completion." I agree completely. 


Tornado Forecast
From 7am Monday to 7a Tuesday, the chances of tornadoes increase. Where you see the black lines are the approximate area where Beryl-related tornadoes of EF-2 tornadoes may occur. 


Wind and Storm Surge Forecasts, 7pm
The path and intensity forecasts have not changed. NHC is forecasting a peak sustained wind of 85 mph at landfall with the possibility of gusts to 110 mph. My best estimate is wind speeds of 90 mph at landfall. 

Below is the peak storm surge map. 



Inland Flood Threat
Below is the flood forecast map. The legend is under the map.




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