The map below shows: the path of the eye of the storm, white,   the hurricane warning area, red,  tropical storm warning and hurricane, striped, tropical storm warning, blue,  tropical storm watch, yellow The forecast for Isaias is essentially unchanged. It is expected to be Cat 1 at landfall.  Dangerous storm surge is the greatest threat from Isaias. There will also be flash flooding inland and, along and to the east of the eye, the potential for tornadoes. 

Pressures are falling rapidly which will likely lead to rapid intensification. In the last six hours, the pressure has dropped from 1000 to 994 millibars. Its maximum sustained wind is already 65 mph, just 10 mph short of hurricane force. If Isaias reaches hurricane force, as it almost certainly will, it would be the first hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean Basin in 2026.  The storm is forecast to be a Cat 1 or weak Cat 2 in terms of wind speed when it makes landfall.  Storm Surge Forecast Seven feet is a major storm surge!  Please observe local information regarding evacuations.  Flash Flood Risk This is a flash flood forecast for the next five days. Please make plans to evacuate if you live in a low-lying or flood-prone area, especially if you reside in the red area. Tornadoes I believe there will be a major tornado threat with Isaias but it is too soon to make a specific forecast. 

12:15pm. Hurricane Hunter aircraft shows the pressure has dropped six millibars in 2 hours which will likely pave the way for rapid intensification.  -- original post, still valid --  A hurricane and storm surge watch is in effect for the pink are on the map. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the area in yellow. Peak winds are forecast to be 110 mph while it is over the Gulf and somewhat less strong when it makes landfall. A major storm surge is forecast. I will update this afternoon. 

Low Pressure Center One-C is at tropical storm strength. I believe it will be named Hernan   Iselle when the National Hurricane Center officially names it.  NHC has forecast peak sustained winds of 70 mph which seems reasonable. However.... because of the mountains, gusts as strong as 115 mph may occur those areas. I wish to emphasize that the potential exists that the potential Hernan could reach hurricane force just before reaching the islands.  Some of the computer models are bringing as much as 2 feet  of rain to the mountains of the Island of Hawaii (a/k/a "the Big Island") with lesser but still flood-producing rains on the islands farther to the northwest. The storm will begin to affect Hawaii on Friday.  Storm surge and high surf will be lift-threatening, especially on the east and south sides of the islands based on the current forecast path.  I'll have more tomorrow. 

Dangerous rip currents and surf will continue the next few days along the East Coast.  These are life threatening.  The 11:35am satellite image shows an eye has redeveloped in Erin with 110 mph winds. The storm is moving north, so it is easy to see that it will brush eastern North Carolina and far southeast Virginia.  Above is the forecast storm surge.  The coast outlined in blue is under warnings for tropical storm force winds. The brown is the radius of hurricane force winds and amber is the tropical storm force winds.  The wind speed is forecast to increase from 110 mph to 120mph during the next 24 hours. After that weakening is forecast as it races across the Atlantic tis weekend. 

Chantal is inland and its winds are weakening.  However, the area in yellow has a "slight" risk of flash flooding per the NWS between now and 8am Monday. 

The power outages as of 9pm. This works out to 2.5 to 3 million people.  The eye is inland with the highest winds over Tampa Bay. Fortunately, the eye came in about 20 miles south of the mouth of the Bay -- which makes the storm far less damaging than it would have been.  10 foot storm surge at Sarasota! Major storm surge flooding at Naples. The NOAA tide gauge at north Naples shows major  flooding, perhaps record flooding, occurring with the storm surge. 

Milton approaching the Florida Coast Based on the latest radar and other trends, the eye should move ashore along or between the two arrows. Near the eye and for about 50 miles to the south a catastrophic storm surge will occur.  It is still possible that the eye will move through Tampa Bay. The eyewall will cross the coast with 120 mph winds and a few higher gusts. Power outages will rapidly increase through the evening and overnight hours and the power will be out for days or weeks in most areas.  Milton will be a historic storm. I wrote about its effects on the economy, et cetera, over at LinkedIn .  Most of the power outages up to the moment are due to tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm winds earlier in the day. But note the green tinting near the coast: that is due to the approaching hurricane. All of that will spread inland this evening.  More than a foot of rain will fall causing severe flash flooding and flooding on major rivers.  The rash of tornadoes ...

There is later information. Please go here to view it.  -- 1:40pm Posting -- Based on new data from the Hurricane Hunters, it appears winds are 175 mph and it looks like the central pressure has dropped to about 912 millibars.  The Hurricane Center says its winds are 175 mph. They are at least that. The "vortex message," a route message from the Hurricane Hunters, has winds even stronger.  You will find information on current  evacuation orders here .  Note: the hurricane may weaken due to its interaction with the Yucatan Penninsula on its way east then northeast. It is not  expected to be as strong as it is when it strikes Florida. However, like Katrina, the storm surge Milton is now creating will be devastating.  -- 12:55pm posting -- I agree with Dr. Cowan's interpretation of the newest Hurricane Hunter data. -Wind gusts are to 175 mph, pressure 925 millibars- 11:46am EDT satellite image. The pressure has dropped an amazing 22 mb in 4 hours do...

At 8:12am, Milton continues to strength in the Gulf. Evacuation orders are going out today: Please follow them! Milton is a small, but extremely powerful, hurricane. You can see the pinpoint eye above.  At 8:13am, the satellite image (with lightning activated on the display) shows intense lightning near the eye.  Lightning near the eye is a bad sign as it means intensification. Winds have increased to 150 mph and the pressure is 945 940 mb and dropping rapidly. It will probably reach Cat 5 status.  Here is the updated (7a) forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Color codes: Red = hurricane warning.  Blue = tropical storm warning. Pink = hurricane watch. Yellow = tropical storm watch. In addition to a hurricane watch, a devastating storm surge is forecast along much of the Florida Gulf Coast. While out at sea, Milton is forecast to strengthen to 155 mph winds and then have 125 mph at landfall. This will be somewhat like Katrina that had extreme winds out ...

Satellite image at 2:25pm CDT shows intensifying Hurricane Milton developing an eye. The storm has maximum winds of 80 mph and the central pressure has dropped to 988 millibars.  3pm CDT My forecast for the point of landfall for the eye has barely changed since yesterday.  I am forecasting the eye to make landfall between the two arrows. However, in addition to the danger of winds in the eyewall, there will be a life-threatening storm surge! For example, if the eye passes just north of Tampa Bay and it reaches at least Cat 2 intensity, there will be places that experience a storm surge of more than 9 feet above sea level. By far, the worst storm surge effects will be near and south of the eye.  The intensity forecast is rather difficult. The models are all over the map. My best forecast at this point is that the storm will be Cat 2 or 3 at landfall. Cat 4 is certainly possible. That is sufficient to cause serious damage. The fact the storm will strike the coast at or near...

NHC is now forecasting sustained winds of 120 mph at landfall which would be a strong Cat 3 hurricane. People in Tallahassee should prepare for hurricane force winds.  Next update will be tomorrow morning.  ---- The newest satellite image (6:54pm) shows Helene developing rapidly. This lends credibility to the forecasts and I urge you to follow the safety recommendations.  ----- 5:15pm update below ---- Hurricane Helene is forecast to come into the Florida Panhandle late Thursday with high winds and a major storm surge ahead of the center. Here is a complete update on the storm. Please forward this information to your friends and relatives.  Hurricane Warnings  have been issued for parts of the Gulf Coast of Florida. The central pressure has dropped to 995 millibars (as of 6pm) 992 990 millibars at 8pm and the maximum sustained winds are 50 60 mph. There are also hurricane warnings for Cancun and the northeast Yucatan. The Forecast Path of the Eye of Helene Her...

Above is the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center, but I have added all of the Tampa Metro area and coastal areas south to Sarasota to the forecast of possible paths of the storm's center.  It is important to consider that, if this is a perfect forecast or the storm moves a little to the east of the current path, there will be a significant storm surge in the Tampa Bay region.  Here is an explanation of the map.  M = major hurricane with winds to 115 mph.  H = hurricane. S = tropical storm.  Blue = tropical storm warnings Pink = hurricane watch Yellow = tropical storm watch  Assuming the forecast works out, the hurricane will be named Helene.  What would I do  now  if I lived in a coastal area with this storm potential?  Make sure infirm relatives and friends will be cared for.  Refill prescriptions.  Purchase any essentials. Fully fuel your auto and/or chain saw.  Make sure your "go kit" is up-to-date and re...

As of 10pm, sustained winds of Tropical Storm Debby are 45 mph and the central pressure is 1003 millibars.  The highest sustained winds at landfall are forecast to be 85 mph. Extreme rainfalls with flash and river floods likely in northern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. Flooding by occur in far southern North Carolina.  With the higher wind speeds, the storm surge heights have been adjusted upward.  This is a life-threatening storm surge forecast.  Tornadoes are possible Sunday and Sunday night in the green.