4pm Update Red tint = tornado watch.  -- 2:30pm Update -- The NWS's Storm Prediction Center has now extended the tornado threat into far north central Oklahoma. A tornado watch will likely be issued.  -- original post, still valid --  The area in brown has a significant  risk of tornadoes this afternoon and tonight. Immediately below is a reminder about the difference between tornado warnings and watches. Please keep up on the weather into tonight. Below is the updated flash flood forecast from now until 7am Thursday. 

 

The dark blue area is where extensive, perhaps life-threatening, flooding is forecast to occur during the next three days. The pale blue area is where flooding will occur on a more scattered basis but still may be significant.  Note: I would extend the pale blue area from Wichita to Columbia (MO) to Quincy (IL).  A few days ago we talked about the flooding being so serious it could take out interstate highways. Below is I-25 in New Mexico. More to come, unfortunately.

Yesterday, we talked about a cable cut that brought down NWS radars.  From a Reader in Upstate New York: For months now, WX:L32, the NWS radio station that covers the Capital district of New York State has been off the air (or operating at such reduced strength that it can be heard by very few). I reached out to NWS Albany. They acknowledge that it is down, even posted a notice on their Weather Story page. That was months ago and the station is still off the air. I reached out again to NWS Albany regarding WXL34; they referred me to the Public Affairs office. No response . . . whatsoever. So I emailed the White House. Amazon and others sell a number of "emergency" radios that have NWS radio reception capabilities. My conjecture is that the purchasers expect that when their I-phone weather apps don't work (I refer you to Helene and western North Carolina and Eastern Tennessee) that NWS weather will be there to help them gather information and decide what to do. It is tragi...

Excessive rainfall is still forecast over much of the central United States. Here is the 7-day forecast of rainfall amounts, with amber signaling 7+ inch amounts. With regard to the band of rain from Des Moines to Albuquerque, it may be a bit too far north or it may need to be widened to make a more accurate forecast.  Here is the flooding forecast for the next 7-days. The pale blue will see flooding but it will not be as widespread.  The deep blue is where widespread, serious flooding is forecast. If you live in the blue area and your residence is in a low or flood-prone area, I would have a go-kid ready in case of emergency evacuation orders.  The second round of rain from Hurricane Polo is now in progress as the storm reaches the Mexico coast. This is the radar from 3:30pm CDT. The rain will become more widespread the next 3 days. 

There were so many NWS outages last week, I have no idea which this represents but it does represent the solution: redundancy!  The NWS seems to have the resources to make "cutesy" videos but doesn't to ensure that vital tornado and hurricane warnings are published and distributed in a timely way from the office that has the radar that covers the affected area. 

This is one of the wettest rainfall amount forecasts for the central United States that I have seen in 50+ years of looking at this. That is a forecast of more than 7 inches of rain along I-35 from Madill, OK to the DFW Metroplex! There are multiple areas where more than 4" inches of rain is forecast to fall. Please pay attention to the forecasts this week!   Updated flash flood forecasts. The first is from 7pm this evening to 7pm Monday. The red area has a serious risk of flash flooding.  The serious risk moves east from 7pm Monday to 7pm Tuesday. It is vital  that travelers and residents monitor the weather in these areas, including those on Interstate highways that some unfortunately believe "never flood." Make sure you have a "Go Kit" ready if you live in a flood prone or low-lying area. 

Looks like next week features a major flooding risk across the central Great Plains and western Midwest.  Here is a forecast of rainfall for the next 12-days. The remains of Hurricane Polo will cause as much as eight inches of rain over this time period. The band of heaviest forecast rain may have to be widened a bit to the south.  Three to 5" inches of rain was widespread over the southeast half of New Mexico this past week causing serious flooding in a number of areas. Additional heavy rain, on top of saturated grounds, could cause major to record flooding.  As much as 4" occurred last week in north central Kansas where an additional 5" of rain is forecast. Again, major flooding is possible.  I urge you to keep on the weather this week if you live in the affected areas. 

My View Out the Window Just a Few Minutes ago. There were no filters. And, the donut-shaped cloud highlight at upper center was genuine. The Kansas sky is amazing. 

You've been reading about the scam "overdue toll charges" letters in the media. We received one and it looks like this. Please don't fall for it!

Central United States This is what I was afraid of. The remains of Polo will cause flooding in the central U.S. The map is the seven day rainfall outlook. The bright amber color is five inch amounts and there will be locally more. While it is too soon to specifically pin down the more significant flooding areas, it will occur. Please monitor a trusted local weather source or this blog over the next few days.  Hawaii While the hurricane watch continues for The Big Island and the tropical storm warnings continue for Hawaii, Maui and Lanai, I don't think wind will be the bigger problem. The issue will be flooding rains -- again -- on Hawaii where as much as 25" inches will occur. Major   to catastrophic flooding will result, especially on the eastern half of the island. Please prepare now!

Hurricane watch for the Island of Hawaii (a/k/a "The Big Island) with tropical storm warnings for Hawaii, Maui and Lanai. 

 No blog update today. No feeling.

Hurricane "Nolo" (not to be confused with Polo, also in progress) is threatening the Big Island (Island of Hawaii) with flooding rain, dangerous storm surge and, perhaps, damaging winds.  We should have a much better idea of the future path and intensity of the hurricane tomorrow and I'll provide additional information.  New Mexico and the Southwest Extremely heavy rain is falling in New Mexico east of Interstate 25 (the blank triangle is because New Mexico does not have adequate NWS radar coverage). Flooding has occurred in a number of areas. The town of Mora, NM had its high school flooded and numerous roads are washed out.  Hurricane Polo continues to move toward Baja California. It may cause a dangerous storm surge and dangerous swells at Cabo as the storm passes to the west. It also has the potential to cause additional flooding in the Southwest if it holds together when it crosses the board.

Here is the flash flood forecast from now until 6am Thursday. Please take this seriously and -- whatever you do -- do not cross flooded areas by foot or by car.  Powerful Hurricane Polo is still forecast to make a turn to the north the first of next week and it has the potential to bring more flooding to the Southwest. Note: storm surge flooding is possible in Cabo. Hawaii The Big Island is again in the "cone" (white area which is the range of uncertainty in the forecast path of the storm's center). Right now, the bigger threats are flooding and storm surge coastal flooding. Whether wind will be a major threat will depend on the exact path of the storm. 

The forecast below is still valid. However, at the end, you'll note a caution about Polo eventually threatening the Southwest. The new National Hurricane Forecast now reflects that possibility with a northward turn at Day 5. The maximum winds of Polo are 180 mph -- a very powerful hurricane.  Beyond Day 5, the forecast becomes very low confidence. Don't worry at this point. I'll keep everyone updated.  Note: I am not covering the East Coast storm because there are numerous bloggers and meteorologists who specialize in East Coast weather. Please see my Twitter/X feed: @usweatherexpert  where I am providing info on that storm.  --- original posting, 10:20a Tuesday --- Here is the updated flash flood forecast from now through 6am Wednesday Mountain Time. I would prepare for the potential for flooding in the yellow and, especially, in the red area. This is the flooding forecast from 6am Wednesday to 6am Thursday.  Category 5 Hurricane Polo off the Mexican Pacific Co...

This forecast has been updated.  Please scroll up.  This is a serious flood threat.  People traveling as well as residents should pay attention. Above is the flash flood risk forecast valid from 6am Tuesday to 6am Wednesday. The yellow had a moderate risk while the red has a high risk (on my scale).  This is the forecast for the period from 6am Wednesday to 6am Thursday.   Here is the cumulative flood forecast from Tuesday through Friday.  The dark blue area is where major flooding is possible with significant, but not as serious, flooding in the pale blue area.  For the meteorologists reading, please take a look at this satellite loop . The cluster of clouds south of Guadalajara is rapidly intensifying Hurricane Polo. It is moving little at the moment but should begin moving to the northwest tomorrow (Tuesday). As it does, it will feed rich Pacific moisture toward New Mexico and nearby areas setting the stage for flooding. Some of the models are showi...

Hat Tip: Jo Nova The climate alarmists are getting increasingly desperate. Notice they are trying to tug at your heartstrings by inserting the word "children." The article says: Wildfires, floods, and other extreme weather events are no longer the only ways in which climate change affects the lives of children around the world. Increasingly, its also impacting their diets. Droughts reduce agricultural production, floods cut off roads and disrupt supply chains, and rising prices limit families’ access to fruits, vegetables, and other fresh foods. There's nothing that limits the problem, if any, to 'children.'  The real issue is that these problems do not exist. According to the gold standard IPCC, floods and droughts are not getting worse! Nor is "fire weather." All of this can been seen in their Table 12.12.  In fact, the number of worldwide areas burned is decreasing! Droughts are less common. The article in The Conversation is nothing but another pie...

As we have been saying for several days, there is a serious threat of flooding in New Mexico. Now, the NWS's National Water Center is forecasting the risk of serious flooding in the dark blue area with a lesser flooding risk in the pale blue area.  More than five inches of rain -- in some areas one-third of the amount of rain that occurs in an entire year -- is forecast in the eastern part of the state. The flood risk begins Tuesday night.  I'll have more on this Monday. 

I prefer the term "free enterprise" to "capitalism" because -- without freedom -- our economy cannot work. We are allowing our freedoms to decay. Something we need to think about with the upcoming elections. 

Monday evening, with both the report of measles in Missouri and a tornado watch in Nebraska and Iowa, Kathleen told me an interesting story from her childhood.  When she was in first grade, she had a case of the measles. In the earliest days of tornado warnings, school officials did not know what to do with the students since Martin City Elementary School did not have a basement. They came up with the following (ridiculous) idea: send the kids out to homes near the school because the homes had basements! Of course, the giant flaw was that the homes were as much as ten minutes away and the tornado could arrive while they were walking out in the open.  Naturally, while Kathleen was home recovering, there was a tornado warning. Her Mom quickly got arriving kids into the basement but poor Kathleen had to stay in her above ground bedroom so as not to infect the other children. If a second tornado hit their home (they were significantly damaged by the Ruskin Heights Tornado of May 2...

I am concerned about a Pacific weather system that may eventually cause serious flooding in New Mexico.  Currently the National Hurricane Center says there is an 80% chance of this weather system turning into at least a tropical depression.  The latest reliable model (ECMWF) has the system becoming at least a tropical storm and reading the mouth of the Gulf of California. These systems, historically, cause flooding in the Southwest or Central United States.  Over the next seven days, the NWS is forecast as much as 5" of rain in eastern New Mexico which could be 1/3rd of its annual rainfall in the area. This has the potential to cause serious flooding. For what it is worth, the ECMWF, which came out after the above forecast was made, has a larger area of heavy rain that covers most of the state.  Typically, once the heavy rain occurs in the Southwest, heavy rain occurs in the Great Plains, somewhere from northern Texas to Nebraska. It is too soon to pin down where tha...

Glenn Beck found a clip of Dan Rather proclaiming that Florida would be underwater due to global warming. Watching the 1982 clip above will give you a laugh. The sad thing is earth's warmer temperatures are a serious issue that deserves serious measures. But we have spent $17 TRILLION -- mostly foolishly. Wind energy is a fiasco. Many of Al Gore's pet solar schemes have already been shut down, including one that required natural gas to keep running!

I have noticed many recent graduates in atmospheric science posting their resumes online and I believe they are getting poor advice from their professors. While I retired in 2018 from a high management position in private sector meteorology, we wanted  to see an applicant's entire job history. This especially included working at McDonald's, Wendy's or other jobs where they worked with the public. Working with clients is what private sector meteorologists do! When I was looking at resumes seeing, "Shadowed at National Weather Service, Summer 2017" it was not impressive because there was no actual responsibility and there was little work with the public.  So, if you are at all interested in working in the private sector (commercial meteorology, television, etc.) I recommend posting all of your employment experience. 

Flood Forecasts as of 1:15pm Wednesday Red = forecast of moderate flooding.  Orange = forecast of minor flooding.  Yellow = forecast of the river nearly reaching flood stage Flash floods seem especially common in autumn. Please keep these safety suggestions in mind.