The area in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes and the hatching means that strong tornadoes are possible. I'm providing this "heads up" the day before because we have not had any tornadoes in the region for quite some time.  Of course, it is possible the forecast may be changed in the next 24 hours. I'll post again Monday morning. 

So very, very glad Kansas has never legalized it.  As Tulsa King  demonstrated, there is far more downside than upside. We don't want our sports events ruined by the smell of pot . 

During the past seven days, rains have been heavy in central Iowa. Those heavy rains (orange and red dots) have left the soils saturated.  The forecast for the next seven days is for excessive rains that may exceed 7" in spots (amber) with widespread 5" amounts (orange).  If you live in a flood prone area, now is the time to prepare for the possibility of flooding. 

Climate alarmist Michael Mann put on a seminar yesterday to teach his fellow alarmists how to 'market' climate doomism. No other science does this.  Look at this backgrounds of the panelists: "Professor of Communication, Psychology & Marketing." This has nothing to do with the validity of the science. It is about marketing global warming like toothpaste.  Earth's warming climate poses many challenges that need to be met. So far, we've spent about $17 TRILLION dollars, mostly stupidly. One of the reasons we have spent so much, so foolishly, is because of marketing like this. And, yes, that includes marketing doomism to politicians. 

Wichita's Eisenhower National Airport USA Today  says it is one of the best airports in the nation. When the F.A.A. made the decision to immediately ground every non-military flight on September 11, 40 passenger airliners and seven cargo flights landed in Wichita as it is a high-capacity airport with long runways. The interesting story is  here .  I wish to focus on one aspect of the story because it relates to some of the unfortunate division in our nation today.  A small portion of the 47 planes that had to immediately land in Wichita One of the flights that landed in Wichita was Israel's EL AL Airlines' Flight #005 to Los Angeles. Most None of the passengers had never been to America's Heartland before, some had never been to the USA before, and some of them didn't speak English. According to news coverage, many of the passengers were afraid to land in Wichita because they were concerned the great people of our city would be anti-Semitic and/or would 'blame...

There's not much I can say that hasn't been said before. After a fun weekend with friends during which we watched Kansas State put a well-deserved whuppin' on USC, we decided to spend a few days in Palm Springs. We knew immediately we were under attack when the second plane hit the South Tower.  I had scheduled an early morning tennis match and I didn't know how to cancel, so I went. It was then that I heard about the plane hitting the Pentagon and Flight 93. When I returned to our room, I learned that all flights had been grounded. I told Kathleen, "start packing, we are going to drive to Wichita. There's no way they will have the airlines unscrambled in time for our flight back in 48 hours." I called Hertz while I went to a gas station and to purchase a car charger for my cell phone. We made the best of the drive back.  The bravery and self-sacrifice of our first responders, the passengers of Flight 93, and countless others showed the best of America. Th...

The past week the usual suspects were claiming it has been the worst summer on record. That is just not true when it comes to extreme heat.  The 1930's were far worse. 

There is an outstanding video that reviews 50 years of climate nonsense.  Two things can be true at the same time: The rise in worldwide temperatures is concerning and we should take  intelligent measures to mitigate it.  Most of what has been proposed/said/implemented the past 50 years is expensive nonsense designed to cut our freedoms -- both personal and economic. We've spent $17 trillion  dollars and accomplished nothing constructive.  Please watch the video. 

  Note: I am spending so much time (see my Twitter/X feed) on this because I LOVE football. There have been too many 'mysterious' endings to games in recent years but Saturday night's was beyond the pale. Add the endorsement of gambling by college sports and it makes it worse. It is time for fans to say STOP! The outcome of Saturday's Western Michigan v Michigan game needs to be overturned by the NCAA. We need universal, not conference-loyal, referees (like the NFL's). The same should be true of all officials from the chain gang to the official timer in the press box. There can be no more double-secret, decoder ring, password-protected 'clocks' that no one can see except (allegedly) the replay booths. The stadium clock, which is the same as TV (barring malfunction), should be official. Period. The NCAA rule outlawing the use of tenths of second in college football timing should continue. By NCAA ruling, all conferences should adopt the replay transparency of...

The most likely area for flooding is the area tinted in blue.  Here are the seven day rainfall amounts as forecast by the NWS. 

At bottom right are the Hawaiian Islands. The small island farthest west (left) is Niihau and the next one to the right is Kauai. They were struck hard by now rapidly weakening Lowell.  On Kauai, the reported peak gust was at a place called Puu Lua which was 92 mph (I am not familiar with that location and cannot find it on a map). Nawiliwili had a gust of 86 mph, Barking Sands 84 mph and Lihue (where you land when you fly to Kauai) had 84, which was a bit higher than expected. Because it is still dark, we don't know much about damage except that it is said to be "extensive." On Kauai, poweroutage.us says 90% of the customers (homes and businesses) are without power.  We have not heard from Niihau and I'm not sure we will in the near future. It is a colony of native Hawaiians who often resist communicating with the outside world. 

8:40pm   Below is my last update of the evening. Things are pretty well locked in as far as the forecast is concerned and, without a functioning radar on Kauai, I can't do the precision work I had in mind.  Good bless everyone in Hawaii and Aloha for tonight.  8:20pm Update Via Molokai radar (Kauai's is still down), the eye is about to move over Niihau. Peak winds over Niihau will be 100 mph with a few higher gusts. Kauai will see gusts to near 100 around Barking Sands and the Na Pali Coast along with in mountain areas. Gusts as far east as Lihue will be near 60 mph.  The tornado risk continues until 4am HST. Flash flood warning continues for all of Kauai and Niihau.  Tens of thousands of homes and businesses are without power in Hawaii.  The eye of the storm is indicated by an E. The direction of movement by arrows. W = area of highest winds and it is intentionally wider on the east side. See storm surge forecast below.  7:08pm Update Using the radar ...

Updated forecasts are here .  4:30pm Update Tornado watch in effect for the Island of Kauai.  4pm Update With one tornado having likely already occurred on Kauai, the radar just failed again. Hopefully, we'll get it back but it is not likely as the winds and rains have been increasing.  So, our already limited tornado warning capability is about gone unless we get the radar back.  3:15pm Update:  Winds are gusting from the east to 45 mph at Lihue, which is on the side of Kauai away from the approaching hurricane (see map below).  At least two roads are already closed due to flooding. Heavy rains (yellow and orange below) are occurring.  Noon Update: Flash flood warnings  (green polygons) are now in effect for about the northeast half of Kauai. The rain (multi-colors) has tapered off the light showers for the time being after heavier squalls earlier in the day. Updated surge forecast: Remember: there will be waves of up to 15' feet on top of the su...

11am Hawaii Time: As of this time, there is no indication Lowell is weakening. It also appears to be moving slightly east of the path shown in the map below. Preparations should be rushed to completion.  7am Hawaii Time: It looks to me that the center of the storm may move on a slightly more eastern path than shown. As of 7am, the maximum sustained winds (with higher gusts) are 120 mph. This storm is likely to cause significant damage. Tropical storm WARNING now for Oahu. The Kauai radar is now operating. Thank you, NWS!! -- map updated 8am Hawaii time -- Hurricane Warnings are now in effect for Kauai and Niihau.  Tropical Storm Watch for Oahu (includes Honolulu). Red = Hurricane Warning. Yellow = tropical storm watch. White is the path of the center  of the storm at the specified times (Hawaiian Standard). Brown is the radius of sustained 75 mph or stronger winds. Amber is the radius of tropical storm force winds (39 to 74 mph).  The red line to the west (upper left...

As I feared (see below), the National Hurricane Center has moved the path of Hurricane Lowell farther east, which requires a hurricane watch for Kauai and Niihau. The pink/blue = tropical storm warning  with a hurricane watch. Red is a hurricane warning for the western Hawaii Atoll, which are largely unpopulated islands and mini-islands. Take a look at the brown area which is the radius of hurricane force winds ( ≥ 75 mph) and the amber is tropical storm force winds (39-74 mph). Remember, the white is the forecast path of the center  of the storm.  From the National Hurricane Center  The surf will be more than rough, it will be life-threatening. Below are the storm surges as forecast by NHC. Of course, the high waves generated by Lowell will be on top of the storm surge. There will be flooding, especially on Kauai and landslides are possible in the mountains.  While this is not as strong as Iniki (whose center went right over Kauai), all hurricanes are dangerous...

                                          Blue is the tropical storm warning for Nihau and Kauai. Red is the hurricane warning for the (largely unpopulated) Hawaii Atolls. Note the track has been shifted a bit to the east again and it would not surprise me if it were shifted east again with the forecast issued this afternoon (Hawaii time).  Wind gusts of 70+ mph are possible on Niihau. Wind gusts of 50-60 mph are possible on Kauai, especially at the higher elevations and near Barking Sands and the Na' Pali Coast, including the Canyon rim .  I am very concerned about flash flooding and possible landslides.  Please follow instructions from local authorities.  From the National Hurricane Center: KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lowell's center is forecast to pass just west of Kauai County late Monday into early Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect f...

This is what we like to see! If this is (high confidence) forecast is correct, it will take us into record territory with regard to hurricanes and the Atlantic Basin.

An excellent point! --- original post --- Why is the timing of college football games evidently top secret? This conforms with what the official NCAA rules say.  Like many, I was appalled by the outcome of last night's Western Michigan v Michigan game. Multiple sources, both TV and sports magazine, say the timing of all devices are synched. Great! That is as it should be.  I spent time with Grok last night and it, plus the NBC rules analyst, say the stadium and TV times displayed are the official time.  If so, then the clock expired while the ball was in the air and Western Michigan won. Period. Yet, there is an evidently a super-secret, password-protected, decoder ring, eyes-only timing system that is the ultra-special official, official-official game timing. And, it is the one (even though we can't see it) that determines the game. Absurd! This is an important point. Put a $3 GPS chip into each of these devices, set them to "countdown" mode -- problem solved! Now th...

Blue = tropical storm warning for Niihau and Kauai. Red is a hurricane warning for the western Hawaii Atoll but I'm unclear as to why that was issued so far west.  Considerable flooding with possible landslides are forecast for Kauai. I can't emphasize how dangerous the surf will be, especially on the south and west sides of each of the islands. 

The forecast is unchanged since earlier this morning (Hawaiian time). The storm is still expected to be a major hurricane when it makes its closest approach to Kauai and Niihau.  Here is the outlook for those two islands: Storm surge 1-3 feet. Dangerous, life-threatening surf, especially on the south and west beaches.  Flooding rains possible with as much as 10" of rain. The rains will begin Sunday afternoon and continue until midweek. Note: 10" also possible The Big Island.  Landslides possible. Note: it has been my experience that airlines sometimes cancel flights -- where cancellations are not necessary -- when dealing with hurricanes. It would not surprise me at all to see flights cancelled to Lihue, Kauai, before this is over. If you want to leave, I recommend you leave asap. 

There was a tornado Thursday in Detroit and the NWS provided about 30 minutes of advance warning. Congratulations on this outstanding performance!

Here is an updated forecast for the path of the center of Lowell. It has been moved slightly east and people on Kauai should pay very close attention to the latest forecasts. It appears clear that gusts of 50 mph or more will occur on Barking Sands and in other western areas of the island. Heavy rain is likely with a chance of flash flooding, especially on the south and west sides of the island.  On Kauai and all of the Hawaiian Islands dangerous, life-threatening surf is forecast to occur.  If I were on Kauai, I would be preparing for these conditions.