Update 11:20a HST Wednesday: Heads Up: Hawaii. Hurricane Lowell is a Threat

The National Hurricane Center is pulled their 5th day forecast (8am Monday) farther to the right (east) which would tend to increase the threat to the western Hawaiian Islands. 

• If you have travel plans, please consider the threat from Hurricane Lowell. If I were vacationing on Kauai, I might consider heaving home now later than Sunday night. 
• If you live on Oahu or Kauai, please consider preliminary preparations. 

11am Hawaii time photo

Original Post:

The two best hurricane forecasting models in the world show the potential for a major hurricane to pass near -- to the west -- of Hawaii Islands. However, the trend of the models has been for a gradual shift east in the track forecast. The latest ECMWF wind speed swath forecast is below.

About the only time Hawaii gets major hurricanes, which almost always come from the south, is during El Nino years and we have a strong El Nino at this point. 

The timing of the approach Hurricane Lowell will be the early part of next week. Even if this path forecast is perfect, there will be strong surf on the south and southwest side of the islands, particularly Kauai which would include Poipu Beach, et cetera.