Hurricane Warning: Kauai and Niihau - Updated 11am Hawaiian Time

11am Hawaii Time:

As of this time, there is no indication Lowell is weakening. It also appears to be moving slightly east of the path shown in the map below. Preparations should be rushed to completion. 

7am Hawaii Time:

It looks to me that the center of the storm may move on a slightly more eastern path than shown. As of 7am, the maximum sustained winds (with higher gusts) are 120 mph. This storm is likely to cause significant damage. Tropical storm WARNING now for Oahu.

The Kauai radar is now operating. Thank you, NWS!!

-- map updated 8am Hawaii time --

Hurricane Warnings are now in effect for Kauai and Niihau.  Tropical Storm Watch for Oahu (includes Honolulu).

Red = Hurricane Warning. Yellow = tropical storm watch. White is the path of the center of the storm at the specified times (Hawaiian Standard). Brown is the radius of sustained 75 mph or stronger winds. Amber is the radius of tropical storm force winds (39 to 74 mph). 

The red line to the west (upper left in image) is a hurricane warning for the Hawaiian Atoll, a largely unpopulated area of small islands.

As Lowell moves north northeast, the map below gives a rough idea of the peak gusts to be expected at various locations:

Via the ECMWF model (and WeatherBell) is a rough map of peak wind gusts. The peak gusts on Niihau

Niihau:  Wind gusts of 90-100 mph, especially in the higher locations. 

Kauai: A gust of about 80 mph is forecast at Barking Sands. At Lihue, 66 mph. Note, there will be considerable blowing sand before the surf comes up, especially at Poipu and other southern beaches.

Oahu: Gusts of 35 to 45mph (stronger winds at higher elevations) are forecasts. 

Comment at 8am: The above wind speed forecast may be slightly low. 

As much at 16" of rain are likely with flash flooding and possible landslides on Kauai. A tornado is not out of the question. We are at a disadvantage in that regard due to the radar being out. I'll post on that at the bottom in just a few minutes. 

Life threatening surf will occur throughout the islands, especially in Oahu, Kauai and Niihau. 

From the National Hurricane Center. 

As a result of 1992's devastation to Kauai caused by Hurricane Iniki (which went right across the island, instead of west like Lowell) the National Weather Service wisely placed a radar on the south side of Kauai. 

Now, with the first hurricane to directly affect Kauai and Niihau since 1992, the radar is down (red symbol at PHKI). This is so sadly typical of today's National Weather Service. It is not uncommon for hurricanes to spawn tornadoes on their east side. Unfortunately, unless they get the radar fixed, there is no chance of real time warnings if any tornadoes occur. 

7am update: the radar is now operating.