Considerable flooding is likely over the next seven days near and south of the Ohio River Valley. The dark blue means "considerable" flooding and the purple dots mean that major  river flooding is forecast. Red means that moderate flooding is forecast.  Currently, flash flood watches (green) are in effect for much of the region with five inches or more of rain forecast to fall. 

We had another nonsense "warning" at 11:25am today. This has become a daily part of life in Johnson County, Kansas. I guarantee this is "training" people to ignore these interruptions! How do I know? My wife cleared it from the screen (I was out of the room) without even looking at it.  --- original text --- We can't do tsunami warnings properly but we can cover America with amber alerts. These interrupted the  program I was watching -- twice -- yesterday.  To make a l-o-n-g story short, there was a child abducted in Wisconsin  so they thought people driving in the snow in Missouri and Arkansas would be paying attention. Yet, I live in Kansas and still had to see these. It makes no sense at all.  America's warning system is collapsing. 

Third Tornado Watch Until 3am Second Tornado Watch Issued   Expired First Tornado Watch of the Day         Expired There will almost certainly be later tornado watches later today. Please monitor the weather in this area for possible tornado warnings.  Enhanced Tornado Risk The yellow hatched area has an enhanced  risk of strong tornadoes this afternoon and evening. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Please plan to monitor the weather in these areas for possible tornado warnings. In addition, this area has a risk of damaging thunderstorm winds tonight in these same areas.  If you need a public shelter, go here for more information as to locations.  Flood Risk Updated at 2:30pm. The area scalloped is there flash flooding is forecast to develop between now and this evening.  Info below is still valid: There is an area where the National Weather Service is forecasting "considerable" flooding. Please ignore the orange dots...

Today's Winter Storm in the East A mix of snow and ice is occurring in the winter storm area (pink) with an ice storm warning for one county in western North Carolina (purple). Power outages, on a scattered basis, are possible.  There are 30 minute delays at Washington Reagan.  Tonight through Thursday Above is the snow amount. Please also note the forecast snow accumulations in the Middle Atlantic states.  Pink is the winter storm warning. Dark blue is a winter weather advisory. Bright green is a flood watch. Dark green is a winter storm watch which includes Chicago and Detroit. 

Here are the latest NWS winter watches/warnings: Here is the color key: Pink = winter storm warning  Magenta = wildfire conditions warning  Dark green = winter storm watch  Green = flood watch  Purple = winter weather advisory Pale blue = extreme cold  Brown = high wind watch Below is the forecast snowfall: Please prepare accordingly!!

This is a forecast for the winter storm that will begin in the Great Plains tomorrow (Tuesday)  through Thursday.  Above are the NWS's watches and warnings: Pink = winter storm warning.  Green = flood watch.  Dark blue = winter storm watch. Purple = winter weather advisory.  I will update this forecast Monday evening. 

With President Trump in office, I don't think we have to worry much about being forced to eat bugs but the hectoring continues about global warming in general. The left is pretty upset with President Trump's positions on energy and global warming. From The Hill: Gee, no overheated (pun intended) rhetoric in that comment. Let's try another Washington publication, Politico: Oh, gasp. We will be "isolated." Of course, the Paris agreement was not binding nor was it ever ratified by the U.S. Senate. The Paris Climate Agreement was merely virtue signaling.  Meanwhile, the U.S. has made huge progress in cutting its carbon emissions.  Of course, you'll never see any of this pointed out on the left. For them, climate change = gravy train.  What also amazes me is that The Hill  and other left-wing publications never call out the hypocrisy in their midst. For example: So I thought I would post this golden oldie (2015) that has been confirmed by Snopes: Kim Kardashian fle...

You played a terrific game. Congratulations!!

Let's Get the Three-Peat!!!!

The Mid-South region is going to have torrential rains with more than 7 inches likely in the amber area and 5 to 7 inches in the orange area. Please make sure you have a "go kit" and other preparations in case evacuations are ordered.  FYI: North of the Ohio River, snow is likely  with heavy snows (≥ 4") in many areas.  In California, flooding is also possible with incredible snow amounts in the Sierra. I-80 will likely be closed at times. 

As many of you know, there was a tsunami warning for the Caribbean Sea area last night due to a strong underwater earthquake near the Cayman Islands.  Fortunately, the warning was cancelled when further analysis indicated the earthquake was not the type to cause major tsunamis.  Today, we learn: Craig is the chief meteorologist for one of the largest cruise lines. CCM = certified consulting meteorologist, which is a high achievement.  I've known Craig for years and he is highly ethical and talented.  NOAA always seems to have money to hand out to climate change advocacy groups but doesn't spend the money needed to keep its earth-ocean-atmosphere data gathering system reliably working.  My point is that NOAA is increasingly  failing  in its mission to provide weather and oceanic safety. The United States desperately needs a National Disaster Review Board to prevent the next mega-disaster. 

From a British newspaper: Sheesh!

More than five inches of rain (orange) is expected to fall in parts of the Mid-South region. Some flooding is likely.  Outside of the West snow will be widespread. Here is a general idea of where at least 2" of snow will fall between 6am Sunday and 6am Friday. Some areas will have heavy  snow but it is too soon to pin those down.  In California, as much as 90" of snow are forecast to fall in the Sierra between tonight and 6pm next Saturday. There will be times I-80 across the mountains will be closed. 

Do you get a sensitive stomach in turbulent weather when flying? Do you wonder whether you eat lunch before takeoff when the weather may be questionable? There's a web site   that offers free turbulence forecasts for airline passengers.  I have not flown with it yet but I'll let you know when I do so.  Link was broken, now fixed. 

We have, over and over, complained about the extreme hypocrisy that infects the climate change movement. The above image from Red State depicts Biden "Climate Czar" John Kerry -- one of the biggest hypocrites of all -- at the COP28 climate conference -- the annual shindig of global warming grifters, hangers-on, and government officials. He was one of the hundreds who flew in by private jet.  Even before President Trump's election, one could sense that the global warming extremists were losing credibility and power. I suspect Trump's freeze on federal grants -- which may curtail Big Climate's ability to pay organizations like Yale's "climate communications" people and similar organizations which crank out press releases after unusual weather attempting to connect them to climate change.  Nothing would be better for climate science than the grifters and alarmists to go away. Then, we could discuss true solutions to a significant problem. 

These are two of literally dozens  of tweets worried about NOAA. Well, NOAA a big problem and needs a complete overhaul. For decades it has focused on the marine side of its mission and mistreated weather.  It the National Weather Service, part of NOAA, that makes the weather forecasts. It has a number of issues at the moment and needs significant adjustments (details here ). To cite two: its tornado warnings have recessed to mid-1990's quality and its forecasts are rarely the most accurate. You can prove the latter to yourself by going here and inserting your Zip Code. The NWS would probably better off as a stand-alone agency split off from NOAA. That said, government weather forecasting isn't going anywhere. It will, and should, continue. 

After the coldest January since 1988, I'm sure many of you are looking forward to spring.  If you need stock photography, I hope you will keep   my collection at Adobe Stock Photography  in  mind.  Even if you are not in the market to license a photograph today, I hope you will enjoy the variety of images. 

There is the risk of overnight tornadoes in the brown area including southern Kentucky and far north Tennessee (including Clarksburg). Make you have your weather radio set or have WeatherCall or one of the other automatic warning systems. 

Various congresspeople are burning up Twitter/X this afternoon because Elon Musk's team has visited NOAA. Some are even worried NOAA will be broken up. One of many: Evidently, Representative Huffman (D-Maryland) is not aware that breaking up NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is one of the best things that could happen to America and the people relying on the National Weather Service (NWS). Increasingly, the National Weather Service is failing in its mission. Here is a smattering of the evidence: ·        Compared to others, the National Weather Service missed the threat of “catastrophic” flooding in the southern Appalachians as a result of Hurricane Helene by a full day. ·        The accuracy of tornado warnings since 2010 has regressed to  1994 levels  when measured by the probability of detection (PoD) and lead-time (LT). It is now almost routine that tornadoes up to EF-3 intensity are unwar...

The title is all I got right now. 

President Trump has nominated Dr. Neil Jacobs to head NOAA. Finally, a weather-oriented scientist to run the agency. He is well-qualified should be easily confirmed. Thank you, President Trump.  It is my hope that Dr. Jacobs has the backbone to break-up NOAA into a weather agency and into a marine agency as the current National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is failing in its weather and climate mission. 

Oy! This one is really bad.  Oklahoma Senate Democrat Mark Mann has introduced a bill into the Senate calling for licenses for storm chasers but only those associated with the University of Oklahoma (I sense they are, at least in part, behind this) and TV (not radio or other news media) can be licensed! Worse, the bill allows untrained storm chasers to use the same automotive warning lights used by police and fire! This is just begging for abuse with auto accidents being the consequences.  When we had the National Storm Chasing Convention in Wichita a few years ago, I invited a member of the Oklahoma Highway Patrol to sit with Kansas law enforcement and emergency management to sit with a panel of storm chasers. The OK Highway Patrol officer, Pat Mays, was adamant that they love storm chasers (as long as we drive according to the law) and begged us to call-in real-time reports.  Keeping in mind that a constitution limits governments' powers  (as opposed to the peoples...

This is a wonderful video from PBS Miami about how a nuclear power plant and crocodiles live together. Enjoy!

If you are going to head south to get out of January's persistent cold, here is a great and uplifting book for your trip . It tells the story of how the storm warning system came to be with stories of all of the lives that have been saved -- and, the courageous scientists who make the warning system possible. It is available in paperback or Kindle . If you prefer more drama, there is the story of the worst tornado warning failure -- ever. It occurred in Joplin, Missouri, on May 22, 2011, when 161 people perished when the tornado warning was badly botched. Like Warnings,   When the Sirens Were Silent  is written like a novel and is completely non-technical. Tragically, it demonstrates that triple digit fatalities from a single tornado will resume if/when the tornado warning system fails. In the case of Sirens,  the paper version sold out very quickly. It is available in Kindle for just $2.99. This is an important story, so we priced it accordingly. 

As it appears the Lower 48 will get back into a period where significant snow is likely, I bring this to your attention for planning purposes. 

The full story is here .  While Lahina has some unique issues (historic sites, limited resources because of its island location, the fire was so hot that some water pipes melted) and 100+ building permits have been issued, the fact is that that this rate of recovery is far too slow. As the article points out: After Hurricane Iniki destroyed 2,000 homes on the Island of Kauai in 1992, most of those homes were rebuilt within a year.  Kathleen and I visited Kauai just months after Iniki and things were a beehive of activity. The more we build bureaucracies and government in general, the slower things go.  A National Disaster Review Board will be able, over time, to create best recovery practices for localities like Hawaii and California. We simply cannot afford to wait -- Congress needs to get on this issue immediately.