I am providing real-time coverage on Twitter/X  @usweatherexpert.  The SPC has updated its forecast. Using the combination of probability and forecast tornado intensity the red area is a high risk  on my 4-point scale. It is forecast to be a major tornado day in the Midwest. The time to make preliminary preparations is now.  The red area with the cross hatching means there is (on my scale) a high  risk of tornadoes of EF-3 or stronger. The threat will begin ramping up 2p or after. The yellow area has an enhanced  risk of EF-2 or stronger tornadoes.  The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. The single hatching means there is a chance of EF-2 or stronger intensity tornadoes.  The green is a non-zero but very small probability of a tornado. If one occurs, it could strong (EF-2 or stronger).  In addition, the greatly enlarged brown area farther southwest means there is a significant risk of tornadoes, some of which could be strong....

This forecast has been updated. Scroll up.  Looks like another active day tomorrow and, since we want to make sure Governor Whitmer is informed , here is a tornado outlook. There are two risk areas, please scroll down to see both.   Midwest Tornado Risk - Updated 4:25pm Monday The yellow indicates an enhanced  risk of a tornado and, if one occurs, it could be strong (hatching). The brown indicates a significant risk of tornadoes with -- again -- a chance of a strong storm. This includes far southwest Michigan. With the update, I have put a small part of northeast Kansas and western Missouri into the "significant" tornado risk area. This is because it now appears the low pressure system and warm front will stay west and north -- respectively -- of the KC area.  I am also concerned that parts of the yellow area may need to be upgraded to a higher forecast risk category for late tomorrow afternoon.  The green means a 2% chance of a tornado which is a very smal...

The area in brown has a significant risk of a tornado or two later today. Please keep up on the weather in this region. 

Governor Whitmer: If you wish to be helpful, get on the bandwagon for a National Disaster Review Board which would investigate situations like this with an eye to making improvements in the way we forecast and react to disasters.  Friday's forecast for southwest Michigan was poor. There were unforecast major tornadoes. While I don't like it, it happens. I've certainly made my share of poor forecasts over a 50+ year career. The forecaster(s) involved likely feels like kicking themselves and is resolving to do better in the future.  That stipulated, there were no cuts in tornado watch forecasters at the National Storm Prediction Center where tornado watches are issued which, by the way, is not in Michigan but in Norman, Oklahoma. President Trump had nothing to do with it. I suspect Governor Whitmer already knows it. Attempting to politicize a poor weather forecast is beyond the pale.  I also fault the Detroit News  for playing along . They didn't even contact the Nat...

It has been a long time since I've run anything about economics and since the weather is pretty calm right now, it is a good time.  Unfortunately, the U.S. is a long way from capitalism as it should be practiced. These days we have a lousy version some call "crony capitalism." The well-connected prosper. In order for capitalism (I prefer the term "free enterprise") to work properly, a society needs a strong moral foundation -- which we have frittered away the past 50 years.  When I was in college, we used to argue whether it was excessive for the President of a company's salary to be more than 15 times that of the lowest paid, full-time worker. Unfortunately, today, it sometimes 4,000+ times -- terribly excessive*. Regardless, what we have now is better than socialism or, especially, communism which do nothing but breed misery and poverty for the average person.  At the end of the above cycle, a nation looks something like this.  Remember with this year'...

Kathleen, meteorologist Cat Taylor, and me at DQ  after documenting the May 19, 2013, tornado near Clearwater, Kansas.  Photographer Jaime Green and I after bagging a  tornado near Larned, Kansas, 2012. When the National Severe Storms Laboratory/University of Oklahoma storm chasing program began in 1972, a question came up: Where to celebrate if a tornado was found and documented? In the Oklahoma of the early 70's, there were very few McD's or Wendy's in rural areas where tornadoes were most likely to be found (no one wanted to chase in cities: too dangerous due to the risk of being trapped by traffic). So, a trip to Dairy Queen -- which was found in nearly every small town in Oklahoma at the time -- became a tradition if you bagged a tornado.  I've continued that tradition. We have many photos like the ones at the top of the page with great people with whom we've had the honor of chasing. BTW: I almost always get a chocolate dipped ice cream cone.  Why am I br...

The tornado sirens went off about 11:30 last night and you went to the basement for a good reason. An EF-0 tornado touched down near Lake Quivira and ended just barely into Missouri 1 mi. NE of Westwood Hills. A street is closed in Westwood Hills, it might have to do with picking up tornado debris. Fortunately, the tornado did not go any farther, otherwise it would have struck the Plaza. The tornado lasted 9 minutes. 

Tornado Watch in Effect After a rough two days, we have one more before the current weather system goes out to sea.  Tbe area in brown has a significant risk of a couple of tornadoes and there is a chance they could be strong. Please keep an eye on the weather today.  It appears ten people in Oklahoma and Michigan were killed by these tornadoes. 

Kathleen and I recently took a trip to Miami as I felt I needed to get out of the cold and get a little sunshine and warmth.  I want to give you a strong book recommendation for your spring break trip and that is Rentry  by ArsTechnica's space reporter Eric Berger.  It is the story of Elon Musk's Space-X and how they created the reusable rocket entry. While that may sound technical it is actually a fascinating and, at times, gripping story well told. My only quibble is some political comments in the Epilogue that (to me) seemed quite out of place such as his criticism of Musk buying Twitter. If not for that, I would give the book an A+ rather than an A.    Have a great spring break!!

I have called it a night.  There is a chance of a tornado or two in Ohio and adjacent areas later today. I will have an updated forecast in the late morning.  Tragically, there were more tornado fatalities in Michigan and Oklahoma yesterday. 

I am providing additional storm coverage on Twitter/X   @usweatherexpert .  Tornado threat continues until 4am. The yellow area is new = enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. This is major update to the earlier forecast. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. If you have friends in the yellow area, you may wish to let them know that tornado threat has gone up since the earlier evening newscasts. 

 After a long afternoon and night tracking tornadoes on Twitter/X ( @usweatherexpert ), it looks like another day of tornadoes is possible today.  I will have a forecast up around mid-morning.  P.S. 12:30am  We have reports that two were killed by the tornado near Fairview, Oklahoma, Thursday evening. It will be important to keep up on the weather in the central U.S. today.

YELLOW: Tornado, large hail and damaging wind threat until 4am but the tornado threat is lesser than farther south. f RED:  Tornado watch has been issued. It is in effect until midnight. In addition to the threat of tornadoes (possibly strong tornadoes), hail up to 2.5" and wind gusts to 75 mph are also possible. The image was grabbed at 6:10pm.  --- Here is the tornado forecast from 2pm this afternoon to 6am Friday. There is an enhanced  risk of strong tornadoes in the area in yellow. It includes Altus, OK.   The area in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes and, if one occurs, there is an outside chance it could be strong. The risk in the green area, while not zero, is very small. 

Tornado season is beginning. Time to review this table! Tornadoes are possible through Friday night.  If you are at home:

The map below shows the forecast rainfall for the next seven days. That is more than  seven  inches in southeastern Oklahoma.  Please keep this in mind with your planning the next few days. 

The area in brown (the Ozarks region) has a significant risk of a tornado later today or this evening. Please keep up on the latest weather information in this region. 

FEMA desperately needs reform. My earlier thoughts are here but there are a number of solutions floating around Washington that would be an improvement.  The status quo is fiercely defended by public sector meteorologists, emergency managers and FEMA employees, in spite of the overwhelming evidence that FEMA could stand for "Failing Emergency Matters, Always." It would be extremely difficult to find a genuine FEMA success story (the way normal people measure success) in the past four decades. I am presenting this analysis because the situation gets more and more urgent. Reform can no longer wait. I detail some of its historical failures here , but there is nothing better than your own eyes.  Lahaina Wildfires of 2023 This is an aerial photo of the town of Lahaina, Maui in 2022-2023. It was a charming, bustling area full of great restaurants, shops and other commerce. Kathleen and I enjoyed visiting many times.  On August 8, 2023, Lahaina was ravaged by well forecast (by...

The NWS Storm Prediction Center starting today has adopted a new type of messaging strategy to communicate their expectations in their "outlook" messages for Days 1, 2 and 3. The criteria is listed above.  The colors represent the probability of a tornado or severe thunderstorm (hail ≥ 1" diameter and/or wind gusts of 50 knots/58mph or stronger) within 25 miles of any given point. It is also showing a Level 1 intensity threat for which you can derive from the chart at the top.  Tomorrow, I suspect the threat level will be higher due to a strong low pressure system at both the surface and in the upper atmosphere. It will be interesting to see how this new system evolves this spring. 

From the Red River Valley comes the battle of the news anchors!  Click here to watch. I wonder when the divorce papers (joke) will be filed?

"Debacle." What a terribly sad and ignorant comment.  The  tyrannical regime in Iran has gunned down more than 35,000 of its own people since the protests began .  Bringing people their freedom is one of the most noble things the United States will ever do. I'd argue this should have been done decades ago before Iran could strengthen its terror network and sell military hardware to China and Russia.  In addition to freeing the people of Iran, China gets almost all of its oil from Iran. I suspect the people of Taiwan are breathing slightly easier. Empty bridge intended to carry California's high speed rail tracks Yes, I realize that we are spending money that might have purchased a couple of miles of California high speed rail (given zero track has been laid and more than $14 billion spent to-date after more than 11 years of "construction").  Or, it might be just enough to purchase a week of Minneapolis "day care." I realize these spending prioritie...

Photos by Kathleen Smith Undulatus clouds, which are a cloud type like cumulus or cirrus, appeared over the southwest part of the Kansas City Metro this afternoon. When they occur, they are spectacular. In this case, they were on the leading edge of a cluster of thunderstorms.  So far, those thunderstorms have brought limited moisture (mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain). More in needed but these are the amounts to 4pm. 

Yes, it is possible that Trump v Obama could occur in 2044: Barron Trump and Sasha Obama. My friend Andy Revkin has taken this premise and put together an enjoyable piece. Take a look and listen here .