Preliminary Tornado and Hail Forecasts for Wednesday  The areas in brown have a significant risk of tornadoes (green has a very small risk). The hatching is where a strong tornado (≥EF-2) may occur.  In addition, there is an enhanced  risk of hail > 1" in diameter in red and a significant risk in the yellow area. Where you see hatching, hail larger than two inches in diameter are forecast to occur.  Please keep in mind that update these situations on Twitter/X   @usweatherexpert . 

One of the three new radar trucks NOAA is putting into the field for the 2026 Vortex Project.  Please note NOAA's photo caption.  So far in 2026, the meteorological community has been roiled by proposed cuts in atmospheric research as well as a proposal by the Trump Administration to disband the National Center for Atmospheric Research. We've written about these several times, the most recent article is here .  Yesterday, a new research program ("Vortex 2026") was announced by the National Severe Storms Laboratory. They are going to put three trucks with multiple mobile radars in the field. They plan to study, in real-time, tornadoes and severe thunderstorms and ... Beyond tornadoes and thunderstorms, the new radars will also support research into other high-impact hazards. In wildfire situations, mobile radars can help monitor smoke plumes, fire-induced winds, and changing weather conditions that affect fire behavior and firefighter safety. During flash-flooding even...

I've put together a map where severe thunderstorms are possible from this afternoon through Saturday evening.  It is important to have your tornado shelter ready to go as I believe there will be several opportunities for tornadoes to form between now and the end of the week.  Please take this time to evaluate your tornado sheltering options.  There continues to be the potential for heavy -- and in isolated locations, excessive -- rainfall. 

Forecast rainfall to 7pm CDT next Sunday. The orange is 5 to 7" over the Ozarks region of Missouri into the central part of the state.  Much needed rains will fall in other regions. I will update as the week progresses. 

For some of us "seasoned citizens," getting older has been tougher than we might have expected. Andy Huggins has perfected the art of "old age humor." For two minutes of big laughs, click here .  https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hhoKXEFWAuw

Please use extra care the rest of the day. 

While this video is a few years old (it is not current), it was new to me and reflects the type of training U.S. and NATO troops are receiving these days. Wow. 

In the wake of the catastrophic July 4, 2025, flash floods in the Texas Hill Country, AccuWeather has reached out to the camps, officials in the area, and others to create a camp-specific severe weather warning system. USA Today  tells the story (with an unfortunate and inaccurate reference to global warming).  Congratulations to my former colleagues at AccuWeather on this lifesaving work!

We've had multiple tornado warnings this evening with two in effect now. There is also a tornado watch. Yet all  of the indicated radars are out of service. In my opinion, the NWS is not showing nearly enough urgency to replace the 30+ year old radars that are in service now. These are Cincinnati, Dayton, Columbus and Mansfield. 

There is a significant risk of tornadoes -- and some could be strong -- in the brown hatched area.  Below is the forecast for damaging winds and large hail. The red area has an enhanced  risk and the yellow area has a significant risk. The hatching means winds may exceed 75 mph and hail size may exceed two inches. 

I hate this topic but here we go again........  The Trump Administration is not  spraying chemicals into the atmosphere to control the weather. The explanation is below. If you actually watch the video, Mr. Zeldin is saying the opposite of what the tweet contends. The U.S. government is not spraying "dangerous chemicals including sulfur dioxide" into the sky to control the weather. In fact, he is saying the opposite -- the Trump EPA is trying to stop it!   The same is true at the new EPA websites he announced . The EPA says they are trying to stop  individuals and groups from attempting to geoengineer the atmosphere -- a dangerous activity.  The State of Florida and Governor Ron DeSantis has enacted into law a complete ban on geoengineering with strong criminal penalties. However, there have been no reports of lawbreakers since the law was enacted. I don't write on this topic every time I hear from these folks. But, I want to assure my readers I am completely ...

Since 1900, the coast population of Florida has increased by 68 times!  So, when you hear about skyrocketing damage and insurance costs, it is because we have put some much more to be wrecked in their paths. 

...that, for those of us who do not  have pay cable, you still see the 30-year old Twister  on TV all of the time (it was on national TV Saturday afternoon) but never see 2024's Twisters?

To my atmospheric science colleagues, hope you are having a great day. "Observing" refers to measuring the atmosphere with thermometers, weather balloons, radar, et cetera. 

You will find hundreds of professional, curated images in my gallery at Adobe Stock Photography .  I do not use filters -- what the images present is how it looked in real life. Adobe has high standards so I think you will find that, even if you are not in the market for stock photography, you will enjoy pursuing the images. We have images from wildfires to floods and from tornadoes (and tornado shelters) to blizzards. 

Next time you criticize a meteorologist, just remember:  It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.                                                        --- Yogi Berra

Growing up in a Catholic, Ford family, this brought a smile to my face.  The story -- which should be of interest to about everyone -- is here . The SUV, built at Ford's Chicago Plant (5 miles from the Pope's childhood home), has a special hybrid engine, many "Chicago" touches and personalized license plates that say "Da Pope" and "Leo XIV." A number of the assembly workers wrote touching letters to Pope Leo. Hope you enjoy reading the story.  And, since it is Sunday, get to church!

Saturday: The item below is from Twitter/X and was published by Dr. Ryan Maue who is a meteorologist and the former chief scientist of NOAA. I share his concern. As I mention below, I would be putting proactive water conservation measures in effect now, just in case.  -- The information below was published Thursday --  We try very hard to make this a "no hype" site for weather forecasts and other information. With that said, my concern is growing by the day that we are in for serious and worsening drought in the western half of the "Lower 48." The map above is the difference from average forecast temperature for the next five days. From California to the Rockies and High Plains it is forecast to be very warm. This is an "ensemble" of forecasts from the ECMWF model system (which tends to dampen out forecast extremes as we get farther into the future) and it continues to show significantly warmer than average weather in the same area. With greater heat, high...

With the airport screening situation getting worse by the day, here is a list of airports that have private sector -- rather than TSA -- screening.  Example: Rather than dealing with the reportedly huge hassles at Philadelphia, leave from Atlantic City. Zero delay because they do not have the TSA (they use private security) and are operating normally.  Atlantic City International Airport (New Jersey) Charles M. Schulz—Sonoma County Airport (California) Dawson Community Airport (Montana) Great Falls International Airport (Montana) Glacier Park International Airport (Montana) Greater Rochester International Airport (New York) Havre City-County Airport (Montana) Kansas City International Airport (Missouri) L. M. Clayton Airport (Montana) Orlando Sanford International Airport (Florida) Portsmouth International Airport (New Hampshire) Punta Gorda Airport (Florida) Roswell International Air Center (New Mexico) San Francisco International Airport (California) Sarasota-Bradenton Inter...

He passed away on the Island of Kauai, one of the most beautiful places on earth. He was 86. 

Grok On one level, this piece by Australia's Jo Nova is hilarious . The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is joining companies like United Airlines and Wal•Mart in blaming the weather for their performance problems. Australia's Channel 7 news says: Australians are facing a new climate reality where traditional weather patterns no longer apply, with scientists warning that “climate whiplash” is making seasonal forecasts increasingly unreliable and costly. The phenomenon has left meteorologists struggling to predict what’s coming next, as one season can bring floods, fires, storms and record heat with little warning. My "favorite" comment?   But forecasters admit anything is possible in the current climate. So -- surprise -- the Aussie meteorologists want more money because it is getting harder to forecast the weather at 90 days in the future.  While I have zero experience forecasting 90 day weather Down Under, I do know that our 90-day forecasts are of poor quality no ...

This posting is primarily for people in the field of atmospheric science. A popular weather blog opened yesterday with news of a lawsuit where a taxpayer-funded organization called the "University Corporation for Atmospheric Research" (a/k/a UCAR, a Washington, DC consortium of colleges with meteorology and similar programs) is using taxpayer dollars to sue other taxpayer supported organizations because the Trump Administration wishes to close the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado and distribute its programs to other research institutions. UCAR claims that defunding NCAR "violates the Constitution" and doing so will, among other things, harm the U.S. "national security." As I was writing this, a second blog weighed in making similar points .  Meteorology is tiny profession (per Grok, in 2024 there were 9,400 practicing meteorologists in the United States) which is of  far, far greater importance than its numbers would suggest . [I check...

This is very sad news for the world, not just Kansas.  The map depicts the number of hours the temperature was below 12°F. Little if any wheat, once it has emerged for the season, can handle that intensity and duration of cold.

The area in red has a high  risk of tornadoes, possibly strong, today. The yellow area has an exhanced risk and the brown area a significant risk. The area in purple has an extreme  risk of wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger -- with the potential for gusts of more than 75 mph. The pink area has a high risk and the red area has an enhanced risk.  Please keep up on the weather in these areas all day. This will be my only update due to illness.

Due to illness, I will not be able to do real-time blogging or tweeting about today's storm. Hopefully tomorrow when the East Coast states should get lashed.  If any of you remember the derecho that struck the District of Columbia in 2012, similar storms are possible in the East Coast states. Please prepare now. 

Here is the color code: Orange = blizzard warning.  Note: I expect the blizzard warning to be expanded.  Pink = winter storm warning  Bright green = flood warning  Gold = high wind warning  Magenta = "Red Flag Warning" (high wildfire danger forecast) Burnt orange = extreme heat warning  Brown = high wind watch  Purple = winter weather advisory  Sand = wind advisory  Deep blue and light turquoise = freeze warnings  Here are the incredible snowfall forecasts with this storm.  Here is a  close-up of the official NWS snowfall forecast.  People will be snowed in for days! Power will be out in many areas. This will be a major disaster and I urge you to prepare accordingly.  Here are the peak gusts forecast with this storm.  This storm will be a record breaker. Please prepare accordingly.

In addition to the blizzard from the northern Great Plains to the Great Lakes, there is an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes in the area in yellow in the South.  Scroll down for Monday's outlook.  It is time to ensure you are prepared for power outages and for sheltering in case a tornado warning is issued.  Not only is there the inherent risk presented by tornadoes, in this case the risk will be enhanced because of their fast movement along the ground; meaning you may have less time than usual to take cover if a tornado warning is issued for your area.  The yellow area is within a larger area of significant tornado risk (brown). The hatching means that if a tornado occurs, it could be strong (which meteorologists define as EF-2 or stronger).  The risk in the area from Chattanooga and Atlanta south to the Gulf will be after midnight Eastern time.  Damaging Wind Risk The area in pink has a high  risk of thunderstorm generated wind gusts of 60 mph or str...