Update: Today's Tornado Risk: High Risk of Strong Tornadoes Forecast

By -
The SPC has updated its forecast. Using the combination of probability and forecast tornado intensity the red area is a high risk on my 4-point scale. It is forecast to be a major tornado day in the Midwest. The time to make preliminary preparations is now. 
The red area with the cross hatching means there is (on my scale) a high risk of tornadoes of EF-3 or stronger. The threat will begin ramping up 2p or after.

The yellow area has an enhanced risk of EF-2 or stronger tornadoes. 

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. The single hatching means there is a chance of EF-2 or stronger intensity tornadoes. 

The green is a non-zero but very small probability of a tornado. If one occurs, it could strong (EF-2 or stronger). 

In addition, the greatly enlarged brown area farther southwest means there is a significant risk of tornadoes, some of which could be strong. 
Make sure your tornado safety area has the cobwebs cleared out. In addition:
  • Put in a flashlight, two bottles of water, diapers, and shoes. If your home is hit, you do not want to be crawling through debris in bare feet or flip-flops.
  • Make sure you have fresh batteries in a radio or weather radio. 
  • If you have a hard helmet (football or construction) take it into the safe for use if the tornado approaches. 
  • Make sure you have at least two independent ways of receiving tornado warnings this afternoon and/or tonight. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Tornado Forecast Update at 2am Wednesday

By -
Image
2am While the risk of tornadoes may continue during the night, this will have to end my coverage.  Note the risk of tornadoes farther east later today.  1:35am Wednesday: Tornado watch will likely be issued for the outlined area, including the Kansas City Metro. Make sure you have a way to receive tornado warnings the rest of the night.  11:55p Tuesday: New tornado watch has just been issued for most south central (including Wichita), southeast and east central Kansas.  This watch is in effect until 7am Wednesday. This is the overnight tornado threat we've been talking about.  I am now providing additional updates on Twitter/X   @usweatherexpert .  --- original posting (still valid) --- Now until 7a Wednesday The tornado risk has decreased in Oklahoma south of I-40. 7am to Noon Wednesday For Wednesday morning, there is a significant chance of tornadoes in western and, especially, northern Missouri. It is unusual to have tornadoes during the morning....
Read more

"Particularly Dangerous Situation" - Update 5:35pm

By -
Image
A major windstorm is forecast for Oklahoma and Texas Sunday.  This has the potential to cause widespread power failures.  Please prepare now. More information below.  5:35pm:  Particularly Dangerous Situation watch due to wind gusts forecast to reach 105 mph and  with hail 5" in diameter. Tornadoes also possible.  If you live in a mobile home, now is the time to determine your sheltering situation. I urge you to shelter before warnings are issued (spend the evening with friends or family). Power outages are likely. A mobile vehicle from the National Severe Storms Laboratory has already measured a gust of 90 mph! 3:05pm Update: Computer models have consistently increased their forecasts of peak wind gusts pertaining to north central Texas this evening. Wind gusts of 110 mph are possible. If correct, widespread power outages are likely.  First Watch of the Day Pertaining to the  Derecho   In addition to the threat of tornadoes, wind gusts of 80...
Read more

Tornado and Destructive Wind Risk Late This Afternoon and Tonight

By -
Image
It is imperative residents of the central Great Plains use the forecast to prepare for damaging winds and, perhaps, a tornado or two.  Tornado Risk The brown area has been moved south into northern Oklahoma and now includes Bartlesville, Ponca City, Enid, and Stillwater, in addition to the cities shown. In Missouri, it includes Joplin and Nevada.  Destructive Thunderstorm Winds Here is the color code: Pink and hatched: High  risk of destructive winds of 75 mph or stronger.  Red and hatched: Enhanced risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger.  Yellow: Significant risk of winds 60 mph or stronger.  If you live in the red or pink areas, I urge  you to prepare for the potential for power outages, some could last a day or more. Bring in lawn furniture or trampolines which could blow about and crash into other objects -- increasing damage. Put your car in the garage or carport. 
Read more