The Growing Drought Danger

We try very hard to make this a "no hype" site for weather forecasts and other information. With that said, my concern is growing by the day that we are in for serious and worsening drought in the western half of the "Lower 48."

The map above is the difference from average forecast temperature for the next five days. From California to the Rockies and High Plains it is forecast to be very warm.

This is an "ensemble" of forecasts from the ECMWF model system (which tends to dampen out forecast extremes as we get farther into the future) and it continues to show significantly warmer than average weather in the same area. With greater heat, higher amounts of moisture are lost due to evaporation. 

Above is the precipitation forecast for the next 15 days expressed as difference from average. The entire Lower 48 is forecast to be dry but California and Oregon will be especially dry. This is important because once we get deeper into April, the statistical chance for substantial rain and snow rapidly fades. 

This is important because reservoirs in the Southwest, with very few exceptions (green) have normal or above normal water in them. If the water opportunity for the next two weeks is lost, the dry season will likely be a tough one, especially if the trend toward warmer than average weather continues.

My "educated intuition" is telling me that this drought has the making of a bad one -- along with the chance for a terrible wildfire season. If it were up to me, I'd be putting some water restrictions in place now.  

I'll keep watching this.