The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Where you see the hatching, strong tornadoes may occur. Please keep up on the weather in this area. 

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes later today and this evening. Please monitor the weather in this area. 

This ought to be a great movie if it is well produced and directed. It is the gripping story about the meteorologists (one in particular) under extreme pressure to make the critical forecast for D-Day.  It opens in two weeks. 

From the Wall Street Journal.  Wichita is a great, great city. Boeing announced earlier this week it will spend $1 billion upgrading their factory and facilities. The cost of living is amazingly low.  Come check us out!

We are in serious drought trouble.  The 2026 winter wheat crop is, I fear, the first of the drought dominoes to fall. More than half of the Lower 48 are abnormally dry or in drought. The drought map above is based on the data as of 6am this past Tuesday. Here is the rainfall for the six days ending yesterday morning.  I often call this blog, and it is one of my primary goals, the "no hype forecast blog." Yet, I have been concerned about this drought for months.  That concern continues. 

For most of its life, the EF-5 Joplin Tornado was invisible.  Photographer Jaime Green got this fortuitous shot when the funnel was illuminated  for a split second by a power flash.  Ten days from today, Joplin, MO will commemorate the 15th anniversary of the worst tornado (in terms of deaths) since the tornado warning system began in 1957. On May 22, 2011, the warning system failed the people of Joplin and 161 people died.  St. John Mercy Medical Center after the tornado. Fifteen people died there because  hospital staff that I interviewed weren't aware a tornado was approaching  until six minutes before it arrived. Photo from Wikipedia.  I tell the true  story of what happened and what went wrong in When the Sirens Were Silent.   Amazon's AI-generated review: Customers find this book informative and well-written, with one review noting how it explains technical terms clearly. Moreover, the story receives positive feedback, with one customer...

This episode of Nova  where they, for reasons unknown, rename wet downbursts "rain bombs" is a mis-mash. They attempt to take things weather science has known for 50 years (discovered by the late Dr. Ted Fujita) and make them new discoveries. The producers also imply we cannot forecast them. None of that is true.  And, as you would expect, they try to tie downbursts to global warming -- in spite of a lack of evidence.  They do have some terrific video of downbursts. The one right after Dr. Marshall Shepherd's first appearance (above) is great. If you watch, notice the curl at the lower left side of the screen as the downburst spreads out. That is the fingerprint of a downburst.  © 1978 Michael R Smith The problem is that this science, including the curl, has been known since 1978 -- there's nothing new about it. It is found in Fujita's book on downbursts.  It feels like the producers ran out of ideas and Rain Bombs  is the result. I wish it had been better....

Another small area with a significant tornado risk.  The brown has a significant risk of tornadoes through tonight. 

Newman! Otto Have you ever noticed they are never in the same room together? Perhaps they are the same person.  [In fairness, I was filling my Diet Coke while Wayne Knight, the actor who played Newman was getting a coffee while waiting for a plane in New York. He is much better looking in person than on Seinfeld,  I suspect because the producers wanted him to appear poorly on camera as he was a semi-villain.]

We have a very small area with a significant tornado risk today.  The brown = a significant risk of tornadoes. Hatching = if a tornado occurs, it could be "strong" (EF-2 or stronger). 

To all of my colleagues, enjoy the day and the well-earned accolades.  We have eliminated  downburst-caused airline accidents  saving  hundreds of lives. The death rate from tornadoes has been cut by 95%!

The NWS's job -- and only job -- should be to provide outstanding forecasts and  storm warnings for the public-at-large, which pays their salaries.  With the National Weather Service falling apart , the last thing they should be doing is redeploying meteorologists -- when they are already badly shorthanded -- to World Cup cities to provide weather security for the matches.  Kansas City World Cup ticket prices. These are the  least expensive tickets for each match.  Addition: These are prices for the Denver games. The price is for a pair of tickets. You want to tell me to believe the  organizers cannot afford a few thousand dollars for an  expert commercial meteorological service?! The FIFA (World Cup organizers) should take the revenue from just a few of those tickets and pay a commercial weather company -- which after all specialize in this type of assignment -- to do the weather security. This especially true since NWS meteorologists' training in han...

 A safe room, properly constructed, is the way to go. This survived the Enid EF-4 tornado one week ago today.  You can also purchase a tornado shelter. If your home has neither a basement nor a safe room, Survive-A-Storm makes fine shelters. They also have the Storm Warn service where (my recorded voice) will call you for a tornado warning or a warning of ≥ 80 mph winds only.  That way, you don't get called at 5am for hail; which usually, and loudly, makes its presence known without a phone call.

I want to congratulate the NWS for its high quality forecast and warnings of yesterday's violent tornadoes in the South. Undoubtedly, lives were saved given the severe damage.  Well done!!

Guess he's made all he can from global warming. 

The National Weather Service believes there is an enhanced risk of tornadoes in the South.  The yellow area has an enhanced risk of tornadoes The brown area has a significant risk. The hatching is where any tornadoes that occur could be strong.  There are indications today's tornadoes could be difficult to see because some could be rain-wrapped and the general high humidity. If a tornado warning is issued, please don't go outdoors to try to see it. Take shelter immediately. 

I didn't know this. 

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes and the hatching indicates that any that occur could be strong.  In Oklahoma, the significant risk area includes Idabel, in Texas it includes Paris. And, in Tennessee, the significant risk includes Dyersburg as well as Memphis.  I will not be able to provide my continuous coverage on Twitter/X today so please keep up on the latest weather information. 

  The people of Kansas -- and the United States -- are supposed to go along with two more 'renewable' energy boondoggles. I'm completely against both for the reasons below.  Big Climate wants to build another 'renewable' energy project southwest of Wichita. The red rectangle highlights the heads (the "good stuff") of the winter wheat plants.  The project is another where Big Climate will grab the profits while local people are left with the pollution; and both the United States and the World are left with ever-dwindling farmland for growing food. Keep in mind that from 1776 -- our nation's first 246 years -- we had been self-sufficient in food. We have always fed ourselves and had enough left over to export to other countries. No longer. Since 2022, the  United States no longer feeds itself!   The KWCH-TV Channel 12 story puts the frequently asserted statement to rest that "we only put these projects on land that isn't suitable for farming....

This video is a view south from Hawaii. If you believe the global warming hype, this picturesque, pacific scene represents yet another mortal threat. The problem is that El Ninos (see below) have different effects on the weather -- no two are exactly alike. So enjoy a few seconds of tranquility and read the rest of this posting if you would like. We have no way of knowing accurately the intensity of El Ninos 150 years ago, as we just have just scattered measurements of ocean temperatures from ships. This is pure hype about global warming...err...cooling...err...warming or whatever Gore is pushing this week.  NOAA is only forecasting a 61% chance of an El Nino, let alone an extreme event. Their mean temperature forecast shows nothing extraordinary. You can see NOAA's forecast here . 

Publishee Monday, May 4 Posted Sunday, May 3 Unless you have a job like meteorologists' who work 24/7/365, I'm going to suggest to my everyone to make sure we are all devoting enough time to God and family. There are no more important things we can do.  Of course, if you go to church or synagogue/temple on a different day of the week, that's fine with me!

Here is a sampling of the feedback received pertaining to The Crisis in the National Weather Service .  From a reporter whose specialty is weather reporting. From a media meteorologist: From a retired meteorologist: From a currently active meteorologist: It's not confined to tornado warnings. Ever see the "carpet bomb" [severe thunderstorm warnings] that extend for 100s of miles along the length of a squall line? I recall one squall line that had solid SVR warnings from ORF to SAV (so not just a single WFO doing this). It was one of those low-topped, cool season events. The thing is gradient winds were already strong ahead of the squall line gusting to 35-45 mph, and you looked at actual obs when the squall line passed (there are a *lot* of [airport weather] sites these days for ground truth), and none were showing any increase in winds, gusty or otherwise. Is this really good forecast/warning science being applied? And I don't want to hear, "better safe than sor...

Posted late this afternoon on X. This is an addition to the essay below.  The National Weather Service is falling apart.    That is the only reasonable conclusion to be drawn by informed observation of its cumulative output during the past, highly active, 30 days of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.    Before proceeding, I want to stipulate that the Trump Administration’s handling of the cost cutting and downsizing of NOAA earlier this year was unhelpful. Yes, there was – and still is – fat in the NWS and NOAA. Cutting the deficit should be a high priority but those cuts need to be well thought out and well executed.    I also want to state there are exhausted people in the NWS who are suffering from vast amounts of overwork due to manpower shortages that existed before President Trump took office -- that were made worse by President Trump’s layoffs and then rehiring, in some cases,  people with little to no experience. The quality of work of bu...

Long-time readers will recall our policy of verifying our major storm forecasts, whether they were good or bad.  Sunday, I differed considerably from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center's forecast of where tornadoes were going to occur. So, I posted both forecasts. Above is the 9am forecast from my blog : the NWS's tornado forecast was in brown, mine in red. Hatching meant strong tornadoes were possible, per the NWS. I do not attempt to forecast tornado intensity. Now that the affected NWS offices have completed their storm surveys, the result is below. Updated 9:45am Thursday for two more tornadoes.   There were 12 tornadoes: inverted triangles are their locations. Clearly our forecast was superior as it encompassed all but one of the tornadoes. It did not forecast a large geographic tornado threat area (brown) in western Kansas and northern Oklahoma where no tornadoes occurred. The strongest tornado was one of F-2 intensity which is the lowest threshold...

...I am not able to update with regard to today's storms. Apologies. 

This person was in such a hurry to criticize President Trump and Vice President Vance last week, she forgot to do some very basic research.  The only problem with her contentions? The U.S. Air Force has its own meteorological service and its own international forecast center and headquarters ( fyi, south of Omaha). The tornado warnings for Air Force bases are issued by the Air Force, not by the National Weather Service. 

Tornado Watch Until 5am Tornado Watch Until 4am Please make sure you have multiple ways to receive a warning in the middle of the night! NWS Says This is a "Particularly Dangerous Situation" Forecast as of 11:50am There is a high  risk of violent tornadoes in the area in red. Violent tornadoes are also possible in the area in yellow which has an enhanced risked of tornadoes. The area in brown has a significant risk and, where there is hatching, the tornadoes may be strong. This is an important day to keep up on the latest weather information!