While flash flooding rains are possible in the yellow area, the red area has a moderate to high risk from now until 8am Sunday. Please keep up on the latest weather information in this area. Remember: Turn around, don't drown!

Hurricane warning continues for the Big Island with tropical storm warnings in effect for the rest of the Hawaiian Islands.   Lala is still expected to be a Cat 1 hurricane when it reaches the south tip of the Island of Hawaii later today. Recent radar pictures from 5am is below. The storm is expected to take a northwest jog as it gets closer to the Big Island. Sustained winds of 75 mph are possible near sea level with gusts to 100 mph or stronger at higher elevations.  Torrential rain with catastrophic flooding is forecast on Hawaii. All Hawaiian islands will see life-threatening surf, heavy rain with flooding and dangerous winds in the higher elevations. 

The eye of Tropical Storm Lala is now quite visible to the southeast of the southern tip of the Island of Hawaii (a/k/a "the Big Island"). It is currently moving ENE. Peak sustained winds are 65 mph but it could strengthen as the day progresses.   Note the heavy rain (yellow) on the southeast side of Hawaii. Flooding rains are likely  with Lala as well as life-threatening surf. 

The information below is still valid at 5p Friday Hawaii Time.  New data indicates the rains over the Big Island will likely exceed 25 inches in places. In Maui, the rains will likely exceed 15 inches.  Extreme flooding and mudslides are likely with rainfalls of this intensity.  If you live in a flood-prone area or in a low-lying area on these two islands, I urge you to finish preparations, which includes considering pre-evacuating into a safer area.  Note: Winds may gust above 100 mph in the mountains and higher elevations of the Big Island. This will be the first hurricane to affect Hawaii in the 126 years of records.  We have a Hurricane Warning for the Big Island, a Tropical Storm Warning for Maui and Lanai and tropical storm watches are in effect for Oahu and Kauai.  Life-threatening high surf is forecast for each of the islands. Damaging winds are forecast, especially in the higher elevations. 

The area in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes later today. Please keep up on the weather in this region. 

Hurricane WARNING for the Big Island!! Tropical Storm Watch for Maui and Lanai This is the latest observation of Tropical Storm Lala now has it at 60 mph winds. Flooding rains, with perhaps catastrophic flood levels, are likely on the Big Island. Be prepared to evacuate if you live in a low or flood-prone area. As 85 mph winds are forecast, a hurricane warning  has been issued for The Big Island (the Island of Hawaii). The amber color on the map is the region with 40 mph or stronger winds. Preparations on the Big Island should be completed by Friday evening at the latest.  A tropical storm watch has been issued for Maui and Lanai.  H = hurricane,  S = tropical storm. All of the Hawaiian Chain will experience dangerous surf and a storm surge.  The interaction with the mountains on the Island of Hawaii are expected to slightly weaken Lala. However, it will remain a strong tropical storm as it passes to the south. I will update the forecast tomorrow morning. 

Why is everyone complaining about the Flock cameras?! Shoutout to the @Citizens_Idaho production team for helping me film this! 🥳 #satire #idaho #conservative pic.twitter.com/39fDoC8AnB — In the Know Idaho (@intheknowidaho) August 6, 2026 This is a brilliant satire that I hope you'll enjoy. BTW, the license plate readers are wrong  71% of the time and a number of false arrests have already been documented. More than arrests, it seems dozens of police have already been caught tracking ex-wives, lovers, etc., etc., illegally.  Last week, all eight Flock cameras in Winona, Minn. were cut down. Here's the response from the police department. The police are going to reinstall the spy cameras without a second thought. What the citizens may want (note the cameras are never put up for a vote) doesn't figure in. And, if Flock gets run out of business, there are two other companies that do the same thing.  These are violations of our 4th Amendment rights ("secure in the...

You may have heard about the people celebrating because there was a tornado in Baltimore starting at 4:39pm Monday afternoon. They are saying things like "gotcha!" for those of us who criticized the warnings.  There's only one problem: The tornado warning for Baltimore was cancelled at 4:31pm, eight minutes before the tornado developed!    The official cancellation of the warning for Baltimore is below.  To reiterate the point: The National Weather Service had no valid tornado warning when the tornado occurred and the two original tornado warnings should not have been issued as there was no threat at that time. -- The Original Post is Below -- A pair of obviously false tornado warnings were issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) yesterday afternoon near Baltimore. I'd like to explain what went wrong and how it might be repaired going forward. The first issue Monday was the Sterling NWS radar was being operated at 4-minute intervals. Four minutes is too infreque...

Low Pressure Center One-C is at tropical storm strength. I believe it will be named Hernan   Iselle when the National Hurricane Center officially names it.  NHC has forecast peak sustained winds of 70 mph which seems reasonable. However.... because of the mountains, gusts as strong as 115 mph may occur those areas. I wish to emphasize that the potential exists that the potential Hernan could reach hurricane force just before reaching the islands.  Some of the computer models are bringing as much as 2 feet  of rain to the mountains of the Island of Hawaii (a/k/a "the Big Island") with lesser but still flood-producing rains on the islands farther to the northwest. The storm will begin to affect Hawaii on Friday.  Storm surge and high surf will be lift-threatening, especially on the east and south sides of the islands based on the current forecast path.  I'll have more tomorrow. 

-- This is a Preliminary Forecast -- The graphic is an "envelope" of solutions from the best models in the world regarding the potential track of a tropical storm or hurricane. The highest resolution forecasts are the thick blue, red and yellow lines. The green is just showers between now and the storm's arrival on the Island of Hawaii. The ECMWF model shows the current area of low pressure reaching hurricane force as it reaches the islands. In this case, the stronger winds will be on the north side of the storm's center. There will also be a significant storm surge.  We have a strong El Nino and climatology shows that is when the Hawaiian Islands are most likely to be hit.  I expect the National Hurricane Center will begin official advisories later today. I just wanted to give m my readers a "heads up."

There is a good chance that a tropical storm, or possibly a hurricane, will be approaching the Islands toward the weekend.  I will begin advisories tomorrow (August 12). 

--- Scroll Down for an Update From CNN --- The National Weather Service, again, has serious communications issues. Local NWS offices are having to resort to messages like these: The NWS has had 13   30-minute delays on the Weather Wire (the pipeline for tornado, flash flood and other urgent warnings) this afternoon. *Update*  The delays reached 30 minutes at one point!   [8:49pm] [resume original text] The issues with this agency are overwhelming and, as far as I can tell, there is little urgency to fix them. Instead, they are talking about what they will do with AI in 2-5 years.  CNN's Andrew Freedman has more on the outage. {2:38pm Wednesday}

Light hatching = wind gusts stronger than 75 mph possible into this evening. The thick hatching is a forecast of wind gusts above 85 mph between now and 1pm.  If you live in the hatched area and it is safe to do so, please put your car and lawn furniture inside. There is a great deal of lightning with these storms and it is a higher than average threat. 

 

....to the people or organizations that licensed eleven  of my images in the past week. It is much appreciated! When you have a moment, stop by the gallery and take a look. 

Heavy to excessive rain forecast from Colorado/Nebraska to the Appalachians this week. The rain is neededed in the western part of the area but the forecast 3 to 5 inches east of the Mississippi may lead to flooding. 

Some of the chatter online from O Gauge train fans (as Shelton Cooper of the Big Bang Theory  put it, "It's O Gauge or no gauge") has been, What does the package carrying the 2026 Lionel Super Chief Super Set look like? I received mine and it is below. This is the most extensive set ever from Lionel. Four locomotives (3 powered) and passenger cars with sounds (e.g., sounds of a restaurant from the diner car).  If one is being shipped to you, be careful. It weighs a ton.  I have not run it yet but since people wanted to see the packaging, I thought I'd post it for everyone. 

As the media has been correctly reporting: a record El Nino is developing in the east Pacific. Statistically, strong El Nino's cause heavy rains in the Southwest. If it is a record event, it is possible that widespread excessive rainfall will occur that will help refill Lake Mead, Lake Powell, et cetera.  However, there's no way the situation will materially improve without flooding. Please keep that possibility in mind.

You'll notice the ads are gone from the blog.  I became unhappy that a number of sleazy ads began showing up. That is not acceptable to me.  Hope you like the more friendly experience. 

Scientific American Research scientists are upset because the Trump Administration wants to impose some accountability into the federal research grant system after millions died and the world economy lost trillions because of Dr. Fauci's Wuhan China lab created COVID and released it and after Dr. Fauci tortured thousands of beagles (that lab was closed last year) Dr. Fauci's beagle experiments. Note the closed shades. To quote a WCW report: The lab pumped pneumonia-causing bacteria into over 2,000 beagles' lungs, inducted septic shock and bled them out.  Was Dr. Fauci accountable? Yes, to another scientist.  In my opinion, an ordinary politician would be far more likely to shout STOP! at this type of Josef Mengele-type barbarous, cruel behavior done with our tax dollars  than the "go along to get along" world of science.  Consider: we haven't been able to get a National Disaster Review Board because the National Weather Service used to claim its lame Servic...

I have more than 200 curated images (4 more added in the past two weeks) at Adobe Stock Photography . I invite you to click the link and take a look, especially if you need stock photography for your business or enterprise pursuits. 

The red symbols are radars that are currently out of service. KDDC (Dodge City) and KICT (Wichita) are the NWS's radars. They have been out since 5:45 this morning. TICH (FAA weather radar) has been out of service the past few days.  The problem is per the 3pm outlook from the NWS Storm Prediction Center, there is a small risk of small risk of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail (dark green) in areas those radars are supposed to cover.  Thundersrtorms are likely  across their storm warning coverage areas tonight. The NWS says there is the potential for as much as 4" of rain in a small part of Kansas.  These radars are essential for storm warnings, emergency management, water management, and agriculture...not to mention aviation.  The radars fail at ever-increasing rates yet the NWS is not planning to field replacements until 2040 .  We desperately  need a NWS and NOAA with a sense of urgency and a National Disaster Review Board to h...

Before television news, many Americans received their visual news through weekly updates shown along with cartoons and coming attractions in movie theatres. Tuesday evening, the above edition of movie news from late May, 1957, appeared in my YouTube recommendations. The story included the May 20th Ruskin Heights Tornado in south Kansas City. It was the single most important event of my life: It determined my career and had a significant influence on finding the wonderful woman I married.  However, even for 1957, there are some aspects of this "news" report worth commending on: "No warning." Not only is it wrong, this is especially ironic since this was the first tornado for which the federal government's Weather Bureau actually attempt to warn and they did a nice job .  "Unpredicted and unpredictable change in weather patterns." The tornado watches (there were two) for the path of the tornado were excellent.  Movie news was referring to the 1950's ...

In the spirit of full reporting, the "no" side won and the Kansas constitutional amendment went down to defeat. 

Legendary meteorologist Roger Edwards has officially joined the move to create a National Disaster Review Board. His essay is here . 

- --- This post is for Kansas voters ---- Fact: Kansas is the only state with our undemocratic system for electing judges. The NO forces are the usual extreme groups like Planned Parenthood, ACLU, the "Bull Attorneys," and other television lawyers, et cetera.  They now control who gets on the Supreme Court regardless of whether a Democrat or Republican is elected governor.  I personally dislike politics and, unless it is climate change or a political issue related to science, I generally keep it out of the blog. I am making an exception that pertains to the judicial issue on the Kansas August 4 ballot. It is vital to the future of our state.  Vote YES on electing judges. The current system is a scam  that is rigged to keep the Kansas Supreme Court (KSC) liberal regardless of the wishes of Kansas voters.  Here's how the scam works: Under the current Kansas Constitution, the extremely liberal bar association nominates three people when an opening occurs on t...

Business Insider published an article today complaining about weather apps. The article has a whole host of issues: Overreliance on college professors as sources. Many, if not most, have never made a forecast outside a classroom in their entire careers.  The college professors say, "forecasts have never been better." There is a wealth of evidence that is not true.  Government forecasters are not routinely relying on AI.  There is a wide  range in quality in apps. Some are slap-dash output straight from computers. Others use well-qualified meteorologists to develop their forecasts. AccuWeather is one of those.  One businessperson complained about the forecast of rain resulting in only thunder that could be heard. That thunder was created by lightning -- which can kill or injure. Sounds like a good forecast to me. I would be happy to tell you which are the good apps and which are the bad. The problem is that, I don't know. As a meteorologist, when it is important ...

Heavy rains are likely in parts of the Upper Midwest and long the Gulf Coast. 

Another terrible idea from Washington (which is a font of terrible ideas these days)! Remember: Congress has already passed a law that every car sold in 2017 or after  will have to have an interlocking system so it will not start if the car believes you are drunk; or local or federal authorities don't want you to drive! What are we Americans giving up our freedoms without a even a protest?!  

There is a slight risk of a tornado or two in the outlined area later today. This is a meteorologically unusual situation so I suggesting keeping an eye on the weather today. 

On LinkedIn last week, I was asked my definition of "climate change." In case you are interested, here it is:  Our climate continually changes. Clearly, the mean atmospheric and oceanic temperatures of earth are warmer than 100 years ago. This is due to a mix of natural (volcanic, solar, internal variability) and human-driven factors including greenhouse gas concentrations, land use changes, instrument relocations and numerous other factors. Unfortunately, we don't know the exact contribution of each of these factors.

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes later today. Please keep up on the weather in these area. 

Daily Mail A few days ago, lightning from (nearly) dry thunderstorms set off a large number of fires in the Pacific Northwest. It is possible, if the facts justify, to blame them on global warming. And, in France... But these arson-set fires -- which are far more frequent than lightning sparked fires -- should never be blamed on climate change.