With the exception of a flood watch in one county west of Seattle, there isn't a single storm-related warning or watch out in the Lower 48 United States. Things are going to change greatly this week and it will stay stormy -- as it often is -- Thanksgiving week. Below is the forecast precipitation from Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon. Forecast precipitation from Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon. Note, a fair amount of this precipitation will be in the form of snow but it is too soon to forecast the snow/rain line. There is also the possibility of severe thunderstorms over the central or southern Great Plains.  This 8-14 Day Forecast for Thanksgiving Week shows widespread moisture across the nation. 

The FAA has canceled the ground stop. Flights may now operate normally. However, I also received an email from American Airlines minutes ago that they expect major delays and cancelations at least through tomorrow.  Earlier, I recommended Amtrak but I understand they, too, are having issues.  Rental car, anyone?

Two illustrations of wind turbines being destroyed contained in the paper.   If you have an interest in tornadoes and don't mind wading through a scientific discussion, I highly recommend the new paper by Josh Wurman, Karen Kosiba and Paul Robinson which was published today in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. The title: The Greenfield, Iowa, Tornado (2024): Wind-Damage Relationships, Novel LDR  Dual-Polarization Analysis, and Integrated DOW/Video Analysis of Turbine Destruction Thanks to Reed Timmer, there is excellent video of this tornado while it was destroying wind turbines southwest of Greenfield, Iowa.  Again, the paper is highly recommended. 

A number of entities have licensed my photos the past two weeks. Thank you! I hope you will take a few minutes to browse my galley at Adobe Stock Photography .  There are about 250 curated images I believe you will enjoy. I also want to thank all of the people and/or enterprises who have licensed by stock photography the past few weeks. 

Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. has the details here . 

I was working the other day and had an old Price is Right  on the TV. I'm guessing it was from the late 1970's. I couldn't believe it when they gave away an ultralight airplane! No license is required, they said. Can you image a television show giving away an airplane without lessons  today? The corporate attorneys would go crazy and never allow it and the liability would be through the roof. 

I am pleased to report the State of Missouri is going to fund a radar to fill the southeast Missouri radar gap . This is wonderful news as I rank it the 10th worst radar gap in the United States. When I was with AccuWeather in 2017, some people in Congress asked me to create a map of radar gaps and roughly rank them. Here is the map. Since I created the map, radars (with limited ranges) have been installed in Alamosa and Durango, Colorado, which improve the gap in the Four Corners area. There is also a limited use radar near Columbia, Missouri, but it does not continuously run.  A private sector radar subnetwork has been established since then but the data is not available to the general public. It is mainly east of the Mississippi River.  For what it is worth, this map was prepared because Congress at the time was interested in funding gap-fillers but NOAA/NWS, astonishingly, said "no."

Good luck!

I took this photo during an ice-storm related power outage. As stated many times, I am not a long-range forecaster. However, I continue to see long range model runs that are extremely consistent about this being a colder than average winter with more than usual storminess. Of course, that means a lot of ice and snow.  As winds began to increase, snow stuck to trees and later affected power lines.  It is an unfortunate fact that we simply do not have a sufficient number of electric crews in this nation to do timely restoration if multiple storms knock out power in multiple areas in quick succession.  The Smith Family has increased our store of supplies to five days' worth and that is something I would urge for everyone. And, if you have a baby or infirm adult living with you, I would increase it to seven days. Meteorological fact: very cold conditions often follow winter storms. Make sure you have a way to heat your home and feed and hydrate your family as well as dispose ...

I am so glad the election is over and all of the obnoxious commercials are gone! To give you a smile now that the election is over, watch this brilliant piece from Saturday Night Live . 

--- original post, still valid --- The hatching indicates that any tornado that occurs could be strong. The yellow area has an enhanced risk of a tornado. The brown area has a significant risk.  Please keep up on the weather in these areas today. 

Tornado Watch Until 2am CST Sunday and Sunday Night The area in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes; the hatching means that any tornado that occurs may be strong.  The NWS SPC has updated this forecast, especially in the Texas Panhandle. However, I continue to believe the Phoenix-Maricopa County area has a slightly higher risk of a tornado than is shown here.  Monday and Monday Evening Again, the hatched area is where strong tornadoes are forecast and the brown area is where there is a significant risk. Of course, I will update this forecast again tomorrow morning. 

Catastrophic flooding forecast along the San Juan River in southwest Colorado! 10pm Sunday: The NWS has raised the forecast crest on the San Juan River to an incredible 4' above the previous record at Pagosa Springs. This will be catastrophic flooding! From Taylor Trogdon: The flooding will be worse than the most recent flooding. The river is forecast to crest two feet above the previous record! If you happen to have friends/family in Pagosa Springs or other areas along the river, please call them to make sure they know that the forecast was updated this morning. 

It is said that a "gaffe" is when a politician accidentally tells the truth. There's plenty of truth telling in this, recorded live, video of a Democratic politician in Minnesota in October. Note: she accused the "sheriff's nephew" of threatening her but we learned the sheriff does not have a nephew.  I believe her candid thoughts pretty well represented what the D/socialist candidates think . Generally, a vote for them means more Flock cameras, far less freedom and less free enterprise, i.e., what we dealt with during COVID only made permanent. The only thing they want more of is abortion. The item below is from Twitter yesterday evening. The R's have been highly disappointing the past two years but clearly they are the lesser threat to our freedoms than the D's.  When you go to the "web pages" of the people pushing the socialists, you see this or something like it. Zero names. Zero monetary figures. Nothing. They hide because they know t...

7am Sunday Unfortunately, the forecast is on track. Heavy to, in spots, torrential rain is falling in southeast California and parts of Arizona. Flash flood watches and warnings are in effect. Please check with your local trusted source of weather information in order to make sure you have the latest information for your home or business. Again, I strongly discourage travel today and tomorrow.  5:15pm Saturday This is a terribly serious situation as the crest will be very close to the record stage! Many more evacuation orders will be issued. It is vital to have a "go kit." Scroll down to the link to show you what to gather.  12:15p: After I prepared the forecast below, an updated rainfall amount forecast for Arizona came in. More than 8" of rain is forecast to fall in there next three days!  This may cause catastrophic flooding in a few spots with widespread serious flooding. Please see preparedness recommendations below.  -- original post -- This is the flash flood ...

Regardless of whether you are old enough to remember The Tonight Show with Johnny Carson, this visit by a black bear is required viewing!

This is a cumulative   flash flood risk forecast valid from now until Tuesday midday.  The National Water Center's forecast, in the blue areas, is forecasting serious  flooding both in terms of flash flooding and river flooding. The pale blue area is where lesser, but still significant, flooding is possible. This is a serious situation and I urge you -- especially if you live in a low-lying or flood prone area -- to prepare for evacuation in the event of rising waters or an order from local authorities. Also remember, never try to cross flooded areas by foot or by car. With the strong El Nino, this pattern of wet conditions in the Southwest is likely to continue through winter. 

This forecast takes us to November 5. Hurricane season officially ends November 30. I think it is safe to say that the chance of a hurricane striking the United States the rest of this season is very low. While Hawaii has suffered badly this year, we are fortunate that the this and the 2025 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been very mild. 

Chris Pratt @prattprattpratt Before Hollywood, I was living in a van in Hawaii and waiting tables at Bubba Gump Shrimp Company. One day, the incredible Rae Dawn Chong walked into the restaurant, and naturally, I went up to her table and said, “Hey, you’re a movie star! What are you doing here?” She asked if I could act, and I said, “Fuck yeah, put me in your movie!” She asked for my phone number. The only problem was I didn’t have one. So I gave her my buddy Mike’s number instead. A couple days later, Mike casually mentions, “Oh, by the way, someone called you.” ARE YOU KIDDING ME, MIKE?! I called her back, and sure enough, she was serious. I drove over to pick up the script, went back to Mike’s house, and read all 120 pages three times in a row. First script I’d ever read. My character's name was Devon, and I remember thinking, “Sweet! I could totally play a Devon!” I showed up to the audition with every line and inflection mapped out in pencil. Rae told me I could act and off...

... I have been requested that I provide a forecast for the President's appearance in Salina, KS Sunday at 2pm.  My forecast is for partly cloudy skies, southeast winds ~ 10 mph and a temperature at 2pm of about 70°.

As much as 5 inches is forecast again in Arizona with nearly that much over southwest Colorado. This is likely to cause another round of flooding. Tornadoes are also possible in the Southwest, including California.  Of course, I will update at least once a day that the stormy weather progresses. 

Congratulations on the World Series win! Bob is smiling!!

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. The hatched area is where a tornado, if it occurs, could be strong. Please monitor the weather in this area today.

...this is required reading! And, whenever you hear the ' speculation' about President Trump using the Insurrection Act or other propaganda (Senator Markey is speaking at the purple link), keep in mind that those stories are intended to influence you against Trump even though Trump hasn't done anything along those lines. The left-wing MSM media is desperate to stay relevant and influential.  

As many of you know, I specialize in short term (7 days or less) forecasts of extreme weather and its effects. I do not do long range (beyond 10 days) forecasting. Nor do I publish others' forecasts because I cannot find any that have any consistent skill. This item, published last week, caught my eye. Compare the NOAA temperature forecasts to the actual results. Most are bad to terrible quality. These are temperature forecasts. The precipitation forecasts are even worse!   I've also kept track of the accuracy of several other sources of long range forecasts and they aren't any better. This includes The Farmer's Almanac  which is consistently awful.  Wish the results were better. Our society could save a lot of money with accurate long range forecasts. 

The heavy rain last week was accompanied by tornadoes, large hail and record flooding. More heavy rain is likely from the end of this week into early next week and, likely, beyond.  Below is are the forecast rainfall amounts for the next five days. Rivers are already high in the 4 Corners region so this heavy rain will worsen what has been record flooding in some areas. While forecasting beyond 5 days is dicey, here is the 6-10 day rainfall outlook. NOAA is portraying very high confidence of heavier than usual rainfall throughout the Southwest. This could turn into a record flood situation over a large geographic area. This is a result, in part, of the El Nino. As we, and others, have been saying: The only way to "fix" the terrible rain deficits in the Colorado River Basin is by flooding rains. This is going to be a problem throughout the winter! You will also recall the destructive tornadoes in the Southwest last week. More tornadoes are possible or even likely this week and...

I think we have a new winner for dumbest road sign. Below, from 2023, is the previous winner. It drops to #2.

The Milwaukee Brewers won game 1 of the World Series last night. It was a thrilling, close game with a final score of 3-2 over the Rays.  I can just hear Bob Uecker up in Heaven (a/k/a, "the front row" ) saying, " Ya know [Saint] Pete, the team paid me a $50,000 bonus for this game. All I had to do is not come within 5 miles of the stadium!" Also, there was a faint sound I heard during last night's 5th inning. I think it was Bob shouting, He missed the tag, he missed the tag!

Alan Gerard is a former NWS forecasters and manager as well as a retired NOAA manager. Regarding the warning mess, today he wrote this essay . Highly recommended!   From Matthew Cappucci, a well-known Washington, DC meteorologist: More and more, I believe the NWS will "fix" this by setting up a National Storm Warning  Center (not to be confused with their Storm Prediction  Center). The problem is that, with civil service hiring rules, there is absolutely no guarantee that expert tornado warning meteorologists will be hired for the job.  The NWS desperately needs to seek outside expertise before embarking on yet another "reorganization" and it needs to take that advice seriously. 

The past 2 days have seen a major shift in the way the National Weather Service’s (NWS) storm warning services in general, and tornado warnings in particular, are viewed by many in the meteorological community as well by members of the media, emergency management, and the public. The usual NWS apologists seem to be changing their minds after the incredibly bad warning services provided to the Southwest .  The sentence should read, "Not even a severe thunderstorm warning???" The radar image on the right shows an impressive amount of lofted debris. People were injured. There was considerable destruction. Even destructive tornadoes went without warning, and warnings were issued on thunderstorms that had zero change of producing a tornado (including warnings based on hail spikes and other radar artifacts that falsely indicate rotation). Radar, in a New Mexico case, showed tornadic lofted debris in progress but no tornado warning! The Arizona town of  Overgaard  had zero warni...