From meteorologist Jan Null, who is an expert on the hot cars threat.  Put your phone, keys or purse in the back seat when you strap in your child. 

The area in red has an enhanced  risk of thunderstorm-generated winds of 75 mph or more during the night. The yellow, hatched area has a significant risk of 75 mph winds. Ordinary yellow is a significant risk of gusts of 60 mph or stronger.  I would put my car in the garage and, if you have lawn furniture that is easily blown around, I recommend putting it indoors. 

Please monitor the weather until at least 10pm. Please note the update and where there is an enhanced  (yellow) risk of strong tornadoes. 

As forecast, this week will be the hottest of summer -- so far -- over a large part of the nation from the Rockies, east. And, while Mississippi and Georgia will be well above normal, the worst of it is forecast to be the Upper Midwest. In some areas, the temperatures will be more than 15° hotter than normal.  Europe is extremely hot (see below). So, what did Germany do Friday? Shut down its remaining nuclear power plants!  The plants were working fine, it was to appease the global warming zealots who wish to stop pollution-free nuclear energy. I don't get it, either. They now have an energy shortage.  Starting yesterday, the #1 (in accuracy) meteorological computer model in the world -- the ECMWF -- has been late or not run at all (it is scheduled every 6 hours). They report they have "unstable" electricity. Great Britain has its police going door to door tearing out air conditioners . As you can see from the map, England is affected by the heat wave. But, before we brag...

Australia has had three days of nearly calm winds and the batteries -- that the magical thinking people of Big Climate thought would prevent wind energy failures -- failed on the first day.  The nation is now in serious trouble -- it is similar to the 2021 Texas cold wave and electricity crisis. Jo Nova has details here . These Rube Goldberg solar and [especially!] wind schemes are crazy. The drive down electric reliability and cause rates to skyrocket. 

The yellow, hatched area has en enhanced  risk of strong  tornadoes the rest of the afternoon and into tonight. The brown, hatched area has a significant risk of strong tornadoes. The unhatched brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes.  Please keep up on the weather in these areas. 

Now that we are officially in summer, the heat (which will be worse this upcoming week compared to last week) seems to be playing with the brains of some people. The latest silliness from Washington.  And, from outside Washington: From, where else, Florida: --- And, From England --- Enjoy your summer!!

Happy, Happy, Happy Birthday, Mel. May you spent the next 1,900 years giving us the laughs (or "laffs" as they in Hollywood) making us as happy as you have your first 100 years!!

The area in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes the rest of the day and this evening. Please keep an eye on the weather in these areas. 

Much of the nation is going to be hot! Right now, there is no specific indication of wetter or drier than average conditions next week except that I would add an areas of below normal rainfall from St. Louis east to Louisville and north to Indianapolis.  And, for Monday night (only).......... Especially with the heat, some people will experience the issues outlined above.  Have a wonderful , and safe, holiday week!!

Note that, in addition to strong  tornadoes, 80 mph thunderstorm-driven wind gusts and tennis ball-sized hail are also forecast.  Note: Tulsa is included. Oklahoma City and Wichita are not.  -- Original Forecast, Still Valid -- The areas in brown on both maps have a significant risk of tornadoes later today -- and any tornado may be strong. The threat may begin this afternoon.  In addition to the cities shown above, Joplin, Carthage and Neosho in Missouri are also included. 

Girls evacuating during at the beginning of the flood from  cabins to the Rec Hall.  Some sad news out of Texas: Camp Mystic, the Christian girls camp along the Guadalupe River in Texas since 1926, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy . That means they are going to ask a court to deal with their debts with hope of reopening at some point.  Of course, Mystic was the camp where 28 girls and adults perished during the extreme flash flood the morning of July 4, 2025. The State of Texas has found the planning for flash floods, especially since the camp was right next to a river known for flooding, was wholly inadequate. The report of the Texas Senate was released yesterday and it is here . Given the nature of Chapter 11, it is likely the owners of the camp will lose their equity and the camp may be sold to others. Whether anyone will come forward is unknown.  While the owners of the camp deserve a great deal of criticism for the lack of meteorological preparedness (based o...

Severe thunderstorms began to develop in the same area three hours after this photo was taken. The clouds you see are called "altocumulus castellanus" (meteorologists call them ACCAS or "ay-cass"). If you see them in the afternoon or evening, they mean thunderstorms will occur within about 80 miles by 7 the next morning, regardless of what the models show. This rule is especially useful in astronomical spring.  Wednesday night in Kansas City was a perfect example. ACCAS showed up around 8pm and were still there at darkness. No thunderstorms were forecast by the NWS's Storm Prediction Center nor in the local forecast. Yet, thunderstorms (below) developed. ACCAS do appear differently in different lighting. Here they are at sunset.  While not perfect, the rule is quite reliable. Today's meteorologists are often reluctant to forecast something not shown by the computers. But, if you pay attention to this rule, you'll be correct more often than not. 

From Twitter/X yesterday afternoon With the 250th Independence Day period next week, there will be millions  of Americans heading to the airports and inevitably giant problems with develop -- especially if the weather is bad.  The airlines do everything they can to fill flights to 100% -- which means there are few extra seats for you if your flight is cancelled.  More than ever, you cannot afford to be passive in these situations. You are far more likely to get a successful or somewhat successful resolution if you 1) research and 2) speak-up. With regard to the above, AA Flight 2117 is from DFW to Orlando. It was delayed more than four hours and -- more often than not -- those delays only get worse. The other flights to Orlando are also delayed.  If I were at DFW, and considering the flight is not supposed to take off until significantly after midnight, I would be worried my flight will be cancelled after all of that waiting. Then, things could turn into days of wait...

The title of this essay is from a press release that indirectly "blames the victim." The author is Sedgwick County Emergency Management regarding a fatal tornado that occurred just north of Wichita at 1:14 this morning. The tornado was rated EF-2 ("strong") intensity. I believe the wording is unfortunate as discussed below.  Photo: KAKE.com. Note that with a basement, as little as seconds to dash down the stairs might have been sufficient to avoid injury.  In what has increasingly and unfortunately become the norm in tornado situations, no NWS tornado warning was issued even though: Rotation was depicted on radar Radar shows lofted debris People from outside the NWS are observing tornadoes and bringing them to NWS's and the public's attention.  I want to be clear: the tornado formed practically on top of the home and there was probably no way to have warned in time to help the man killed. But there is absolutely no reason a tornado warning could not have bee...

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes and the hatching indicates that any tornadoes may be strong. Please keep up on the weather this afternoon and evening. 

8pm Update: Flash Flood Forecast Now Until 7am CDT Sunday Red is a high risk of flash flooding.  7am Sunday to 7am Monday Remember: Never  walk or drive through flooded areas.  5:40pm Damaging Wind Forecast NWS just updated their wind forecast. The area outlined in purple is forecast to have occasional 80-100 mph gusts in the 7-11pm CDT time frame with frequent 60-70mph gusts. If correct, there will be widespread power outages!  Prepare accordingly.  I will provide updates on Twitter/X  @usweatherexpert . Today is another day when tornadoes are possible. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes and, where indicated by hatching, any tornadoes could be strong.  There is also an enhanced  risk of damaging winds with gusts above 75 mph in the red area. The yellow/hatched area has a significant risk of gusts to 75 mph. Without the hatching, gusts to 60 mph are forecast to occur. 

There was a lot of controversy in the Midwest Wednesday morning as to whether the forecast tornadoes in the Midwest would develop because of heavy morning rains in the region. Tornadoes require "instability," defined as air rising -- perhaps violently ( > 100 mph) in extreme cases -- if it is warm and humid near the ground and cold aloft. Conventional wisdom is that extensive morning rain diminishes tornado potential.  But that's often not true. Take look at the radar of the same region eight hours later.  While the morning rain may keep the air less unstable, I've documented that some of the very biggest tornadoes and tornado outbreaks are preceded by after midnight on the day of the event. My speculation is the evaporating rain lowers the "lifting condensation level" (LCL). Lower LCL's = tornadoes more likely, other factors equal.  Here are just some of the events I have examined: April 27, 2011 (see radar image nearby from 4:49am).  April 3, 1974...

The area in pink is where "catastrophic" flooding is forecast to occur per the National Weather Service's (relatively) new National Water Center. If I were in the pink area, I would be prepared to evacuate. Whatever you do, do not attempt to drive or walk through flooded areas -- that is the #1 reason for flood fatalities. 

...than a European government official using the words "utopia" and "confiscation" in the same sentence The criticism of Elon Musk the past week has mostly been from pathetic people who have created nothing and contributed nothing. They seem unaware  envy and greed are two of the Seven Deadly Sins.  Socialism and communism only benefit the politicians. Want proof? Here are pictures of socialist Elizabeth Warren criticizing Musk from the back seat of a limo (probably paid for by us). Here is a photo of her getting off a private jet.  Unlike government, no one has even been forced to purchase anything created or produced by Musk. We don't have to buy Starlink. We don't have to purchase a Tesla. We don't have to use Twitter/X. He has become a trillionaire by producing these things, creating resuseable rockets (when NASA was laughing at the concept ), and even rescuing astronauts. We made Musk a trillionaire because he created products and services people ...

I am providing additional coverage @usweatherexpert on Twitter. I invite you to join us.  Watches are now out from Illinois to eastern Kansas corresponding to the forecast below -- which is still valid. The red area has a high risk of tornadoes, some of which are forecast by the NWS to be strong or even violent.  The yellow area has an enhanced  risk of tornadoes and some could be strong.  The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes and some could be strong.  There is also a risk of damaging winds throughout this area.  The tornadoes will likely have faster than usual forward movement which may mean less advance notice than usual. It is vital to keep up on the latest weather information throughout the day and, in Indiana and Ohio, into tonight.