It is imperative residents of the central Great Plains use the forecast to prepare for damaging winds and, perhaps, a tornado or two.  Tornado Risk The brown area has been moved south into northern Oklahoma and now includes Bartlesville, Ponca City, Enid, and Stillwater, in addition to the cities shown. In Missouri, it includes Joplin and Nevada.  Destructive Thunderstorm Winds Here is the color code: Pink and hatched: High  risk of destructive winds of 75 mph or stronger.  Red and hatched: Enhanced risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger.  Yellow: Significant risk of winds 60 mph or stronger.  If you live in the red or pink areas, I urge  you to prepare for the potential for power outages, some could last a day or more. Bring in lawn furniture or trampolines which could blow about and crash into other objects -- increasing damage. Put your car in the garage or carport. 

The red areas in Kansas and Pennsylvania + Virginia Panhandle have a serious risk of torrential rain and flooding. Please monitor the weather and remember: Turn around, don't drown. Never try to cross a flooded area by  foot or by car.

This forecast has been updated. Please click here for the update .  As of the present time (5:15pm Monday), thunderstorms are developing in Nebraska. Some of those will affect Kansas late tonight and Tuesday morning. There could be some isolated wind gusts to 50 mph. This forecast pertains to the afternoon and night hours from about 4pm Tuesday to 5am Wednesday.  Tornado Risk The orange area has an enhanced  risk of tornadoes. Some could be strong (EF-2 or stronger. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. This risk will begin around 4pm and will increase into the evening.  Damaging Wind Risk The red, hatched area has an enhanced risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger. The red area without hatching has an enhanced risk of gusts of 60 mph or stronger. The yellow area as a significant risk of 60 mph winds or stronger.  In the hatched area, there is a serious risk of destructive storms: tornadoes and damaging winds. Power outages are likely  and s...

Please keep up on the weather if you live in the brown-shaded area. 

After the huge success of the National Transportation Safety Board , in 1998 Congress established the    U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazards Investigation Board . The CSB's mission is to investigate accidents such as those at oil refineries and chemical manufacturing plants. Like the NTSB, it has authority to investigate and make recommendations but it has no enforcement power.  Via Grist  I learned this morning that President Trump's Administration is proposing to eliminate the CSB as part of balancing the federal budget. This is a terrible idea!  I am a small-government conservative but both the CSB and NTSB produce huge returns on investment, not to mention the lives saved.  Its budget is just $15 million per year. That amount is just  one-quarter  of a single NOAA pork barrel grant to a global warming group in Maine (below). And, of course, NOAA makes many of these grants. To save money, let's get NOAA completely out of the pork-barrel busin...

When the Sirens Were Silent   is the true story of what went wrong during the catastrophic 2011 Joplin Tornado and how -- if we don't fix the current and the issues of the past decade of the National Weather Service -- it could happen again.  The book has received outstanding reviews and we priced the ebook version (the paperback copies sold out quickly) at just $2.99. It can be read on your computer using Amazon's Kindle Cloud Reader.

If you live in this region and have outdoor activity planned this afternoon or evening, please keep an eye on the weather. A major wind event is likely.  Here's the color code: Hatching: Forecast wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger.  Red: Enhanced risk of damaging wind gusts. Yellow: Significant risk of wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger.  Please make sure you have a way of receiving watches and warnings if you are going to outdoors.

With the passing of Brian Wilson Wednesday, I wanted to post my favorite performance of his. It was recorded in London in 2003 when he performed the entire album of Pet Sounds  live. The end the performance with a wonderful rendition of Good Vibrations.  Rest in peace, Brian and thank you for all of the great music!!

To every father who reads this blog: Have a wonderful day!

Thanks to AccuWeather for the list.  After the F-5 Ruskin Heights Tornado (I was age 5) I had Lilasophobia, but managed to turn it into a career specializing in mitigating, forecasting and warning of extreme weather. Fortunately, I had the encouragement of my parents, which made a big difference. 

Here are the forecast rainfall amounts from 7 this evening until 7pm CDT Sunday. Have a great Father's Day weekend!

Father Emil Kapaun is in the second step on the (4 step) path to sainthood for  his heroic work caring for prisoners (and the captors!) during the Korean War. In the photo, he is showing off the stem of his pipe which was destroyed when it was shot out of his mouth.  Canonization is the process through which the Catholic Church elevates a person to sainthood. Lately, it seems some in the media are determined to make the pre-DOGE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) into some sort of sainted organization -- when has been anything but. While the Trump Administration is to be commended for nominating a highly qualified person -- Dr. Neil Jacobs --  to head NOAA (still awaiting Senate confirmation), its handling of the DOGE issues has been poor. You can find my thoughts on DOGE and NOAA in this news story from The Dispatch . Among other comments in the article: That said, there are far too many pretending that NOAA and the NWS were somehow sainted organizat...

There was a tragic crashed of a Boeing 787 Dreamliner earlier today and the Daily Mail  says "wind shear cannot be ruled out." Yes, it can, if they define wind shear as a downburst -- which was the cause of more than a dozen airliner crashes from the late 60's through the 80's. Specifically, they wrote: 'There are a number of possible scenarios: thrust or engine performance issues, excessive aircraft weight, poor trim or flap configuration, or a more critical failure that affected the aircraft's ability to climb,' he said. 'Weather, windshear or even bird strike can't be ruled out either at this early stage.' There is video of the crash here . There was no rain occurring -- which rules out a "wet" downburst. There were no altocumulus clouds or dissipating towering cumulus which rules out a dry downburst. While the contrast in the video is not ideal, it appears the sky is clear of clouds.  There is no reason to believe that wind shear ...

Saturday will be the final Symphony in the Flint Hills . It is a magnificent event that features not only the music of the Kansas City Philharmonic Orchestra along with original art highlighting the amazing Kansas prairie. Of course, the real star is the venue. "Symphony" will be sorely missed.  While the event, as usual, is sold out, there are some unconventional ways to get to enjoy it . Hope you get a chance. 

Some sad news this evening. Gary England, " The Weather God of Oklahoma City ," has passed away at the age of 85. The report came via his daughter, Molly England.  Gary was known for his extensive severe weather coverage as well as his pioneering use of Doppler radar for tornado detection as well as other innovations.  I was working for KFOR TV (NBC, then WKY-TV) in Oklahoma City when he began his career at KWTV (CBS) in October of 1972. He was a tough competitor who worked hard to provide quality severe weather coverage for his viewers. He finally retired August 28, 2013. His  40+ year career duration in the capital of tornado alley was remarkable .  He appears early in the movie Twister.  The movie producers used KWTV archival footage of his coverage of the tornado in Moore and Oklahoma City on November 19, 1973.  May Gary rest in peace and may his family be comforted in the outstanding, lifesaving, work he did for the people of Oklahoma.  Addition a...

As much as seven inches of rain is forecast to fall near Waco in the next five days. Flooding is likely in the region. 

Tornado sirens, tornado shelters, wildfires, rural America, tornado damage, aviation navigation, agriculture, and photographs of a wide variety of other subjects are all available in my collection.  You will find my collection of weather and nature-related photographs, ready for licensing , here .  I hope you will take a look, regardless of whether you are shopping for stock photography.

Headline from Friday afternoon. We are in another active weather pattern with tornadoes, severe thunderstorms and flash floods all possible. Flash floods this time of year often occur at night.  Here's how to activate the FCC's WEA alerts on your iPhone. 

Oklahoma has around 45,000 without power with the rest in Texas. 

A major windstorm is forecast for Oklahoma and Texas Sunday.  This has the potential to cause widespread power failures.  Please prepare now. More information below.  5:35pm:  Particularly Dangerous Situation watch due to wind gusts forecast to reach 105 mph and  with hail 5" in diameter. Tornadoes also possible.  If you live in a mobile home, now is the time to determine your sheltering situation. I urge you to shelter before warnings are issued (spend the evening with friends or family). Power outages are likely. A mobile vehicle from the National Severe Storms Laboratory has already measured a gust of 90 mph! 3:05pm Update: Computer models have consistently increased their forecasts of peak wind gusts pertaining to north central Texas this evening. Wind gusts of 110 mph are possible. If correct, widespread power outages are likely.  First Watch of the Day Pertaining to the  Derecho   In addition to the threat of tornadoes, wind gusts of 80...

One tornado warning has already been issued. Note this includes Baltimore, Washington and Richmond. --- original post --- There is a significant risk of tornadoes in a small area of the Mid-Atlantic Region: If you live in the area shaded in brown, please keep up with weather information as the day progresses. 

Happy to report that radar data from the three radars resumed at 5:19pm Saturday. I am guessing that other products (e.g., warnings)   from Wichita and Dodge City will be able to be issued. The outage was about 18 hours (!) in duration.  --- original post --- We've had another major National Weather Service communications outage -- which began Friday evening during a tornado watch, no less! It continues as of this moment (3pm Saturday). With virtually zero media coverage, the National Weather Service (NWS) offices in Wichita and Dodge City, Kansas, went offline at 11:37pm Friday...with a tornado watch in effect for part of their service territory. In addition to losing warning services from those two offices (in the case of Dodge City, for a dangerous 45 minutes), their radars were unavailable and  they took the Federal Aviation Administration's Wichita Terminal Doppler Radar with them! See screen capture below. Red = radar out of service.  The last image before rada...

I thought it might be helpful to bring the June 1 to 6 rainfall across the winter wheat belt to your attention. In this area, most of the wheat is grown near and west of I-35. Currently, most analysts says that worldwide wheat supplies are "tight." This means that a good crop is especially needed this year.  I am concerned about flooding in areas where the wheat is ripe or ripening (generally south of the KS-OK border) causing the wheat to lessen in quality.  Regardless, drought conditions improved significantly during May. The latest drought conditions, as of Tuesday, are below.  Looking ahead, here is the forecast rainfall for the next seven days. 

The brown areas each have a significant risk of a tornado. While not labeled, in Missouri, Cape Girardeau is included. Right now, it looks like the highest risk is around Clarksville.  In Kansas, Liberal and Garden City are included. In New Mexico: Clovis.  Please keep up on the latest weather information if you live in these areas. 

Flooding is forecast to occur in New York and New England as in a second area from Indiana to the Southern Great Plains. The slanted hatching indicates the flooding is forecast for the next three days and the cross hatching is forecast flooding for the next seven days. Red dots = moderate flooding along mainstream rivers and orange is minor flooding at that location.  A close up: I am concerned about the winter wheat in Texas and Oklahoma. Too wet for too long and it may rot in the fields. In Kansas, the concern is similar but it may not be as far along and may have a better capability of recovering. 

Two gusts of winds stronger than 105 mph this evening! A "mesonetwork" is a dense area of weather instrumentation which meany states have installed.