Here is a sampling of the feedback received pertaining to The Crisis in the National Weather Service .  From a reporter whose specialty is weather reporting. From a media meteorologist: From a retired meteorologist: From a currently active meteorologist: It's not confined to tornado warnings. Ever see the "carpet bomb" [severe thunderstorm warnings] that extend for 100s of miles along the length of a squall line? I recall one squall line that had solid SVR warnings from ORF to SAV (so not just a single WFO doing this). It was one of those low-topped, cool season events. The thing is gradient winds were already strong ahead of the squall line gusting to 35-45 mph, and you looked at actual obs when the squall line passed (there are a *lot* of [airport weather] sites these days for ground truth), and none were showing any increase in winds, gusty or otherwise. Is this really good forecast/warning science being applied? And I don't want to hear, "better safe than sor...

Posted late this afternoon on X. This is an addition to the essay below.  The National Weather Service is falling apart.    That is the only reasonable conclusion to be drawn by informed observation of its cumulative output during the past, highly active, 30 days of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.    Before proceeding, I want to stipulate that the Trump Administration’s handling of the cost cutting and downsizing of NOAA earlier this year was unhelpful. Yes, there was – and still is – fat in the NWS and NOAA. Cutting the deficit should be a high priority but those cuts need to be well thought out and well executed.    I also want to state there are exhausted people in the NWS who are suffering from vast amounts of overwork due to manpower shortages that existed before President Trump took office -- that were made worse by President Trump’s layoffs and then rehiring, in some cases,  people with little to no experience. The quality of work of bu...

Long-time readers will recall our policy of verifying our major storm forecasts, whether they were good or bad.  Sunday, I differed considerably from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center's forecast of where tornadoes were going to occur. So, I posted both forecasts. Above is the 9am forecast from my blog : the NWS's tornado forecast was in brown, mine in red. Hatching meant strong tornadoes were possible, per the NWS. I do not attempt to forecast tornado intensity. Now that the affected NWS offices have completed their storm surveys, the result is below. Updated 9:45am Thursday for two more tornadoes.   There were 12 tornadoes: inverted triangles are their locations. Clearly our forecast was superior as it encompassed all but one of the tornadoes. It did not forecast a large geographic tornado threat area (brown) in western Kansas and northern Oklahoma where no tornadoes occurred. The strongest tornado was one of F-2 intensity which is the lowest threshold...

...I am not able to update with regard to today's storms. Apologies. 

This person was in such a hurry to criticize President Trump and Vice President Vance last week, she forgot to do some very basic research.  The only problem with her contentions? The U.S. Air Force has its own meteorological service and its own international forecast center and headquarters ( fyi, south of Omaha). The tornado warnings for Air Force bases are issued by the Air Force, not by the National Weather Service. 

Tornado Watch Until 5am Tornado Watch Until 4am Please make sure you have multiple ways to receive a warning in the middle of the night! NWS Says This is a "Particularly Dangerous Situation" Forecast as of 11:50am There is a high  risk of violent tornadoes in the area in red. Violent tornadoes are also possible in the area in yellow which has an enhanced risked of tornadoes. The area in brown has a significant risk and, where there is hatching, the tornadoes may be strong. This is an important day to keep up on the latest weather information!

Tornado Watch Until 4am This could be a dangerous  nighttime tornado situation. Please make sure you have multiple ways of receiving storm warnings during the night! I am continuing to provide updates on Twitter/X @usweatherexpert .   Please follow along and invite your friends and family to do so.  Tornadoes Forecast Until 4am NWS is forecasting "a couple of tornadoes" during the night along with apple-sized hail and 70 mph winds. Some of the models are showing severe thunderstorms in the KC and western Missouri area from 5am to 8am. Please make sure you have some way of receiving warnings during the night.  4th Tornado Watch - Overnight Threat! I'm very concerned about the threat of overnight tornadoes and I am glad the NWS is, too. Note this tornado watch is in effect until 2am.  Third Tornado Watch, 5:15pm This watch includes Tulsa.  Second Tornado Watch This is for Texas and Oklahoma.  Tornado Watch Issued 9am Tornado Forecast My ability to make a...

Three Straight Days of Dangerous Storms For Saturday and Saturday Night 10:50pm Tornado watch until 5am. This includes Dallas and Ft. Worth 5:35pm Radar at 5:30pm. Gold counties = tornado watch. Pink counties = severe thunderstorm watch.  4:20pm Update The red tint is the tornado watch which calls for "intense" tornadoes, 4" in diameter and thunderstorm-generated winds of 80 mph. As of 4:15pm, thunderstorms were beginning to develop in the southwest part of the watch.  I will not be able to provide my continuous coverage this afternoon, so please monitor trusted weather sources.  11:45am update There is an enhanced  risk of tornadoes in the yellow area and any tornadoes could be strong. Update: the solid cross hatching is where the NWS is forecasting violent  tornadoes.  The brown area has a significant risk and there, too, the tornadoes could be strong. The primary threat should be after 3pm.  This the hail forecast. Where you see the bold cross-hatch...

Below, I mention that today is the first day of three active days of weather. I'd like to give you  preliminary looks at Sunday and Monday. Sunday The yellow area has an enhanced  risk of tornadoes and any tornadoes that occur could be strong. The brown area has a significant risk and the hatching means any could be strong.  In Nebraska, the brown area includes Lincoln, Beatrice, and Superior. In Oklahoma, the brown area includes Blackwell and Medford.  Monday The National Weather Service expects an outbreak of tornadoes on Monday. There is the serious risk of violent, long-tracked tornadoes -- particularly from southeast Iowa (including Iowa City, Ft. Madison and the Quad Cities into northwest Illinois including Galesburg, Quincy, Peoria and nearby areas. There is also the likelihood of damaging thunderstorm winds and large hail.  I will update this blog tomorrow and Monday, of course; I will also provide more frequent updates on Twitter/X @usweatherexpert ...

Go read the headline a second  time. Yes, it says the opposite of what nutritional science has been telling us for 30+ years.  I'm always amused by people who criticize weather science's forecasting ability when nutritional science seems to change almost weekly. For younger readers, this is how bad it got: Of course, more recently, the advice is the opposite. And, remember, nutrition is not a predictive science.  This is also a cautionary example about science from LinkedIn earlier this week: A scientific "consensus" is meaningless. Science is about what can be replicated and proven -- it is in no way a popularity contest. 

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Where the hatching is located, any tornadoes may be strong. Keep up on the weather in this region. 

It is terribly unfortunate the emergency manager(s) made the decision to sound the tornado sirens in the City of Kansas City.  My daughter was visiting a friend south of downtown KC and she let me know the sirens were going off. Where was the tornado? Twenty-five miles to the northeast with the tornado was moving away  from Kansas City! This is 1960's siren philosophy, "tornadoes are unpredictable so if we are going to sound the sirens in any part of the county, we'll sound them over the entire  county!" A report after the Joplin Tornado found the over-use of their tornado sirens was a factor as to why so many died.  Independence is an east suburb of Kansas City. This is ridiculous. It hurts the credibility of the warning system. It needs to stop!

The tornado risk in the central U.S. is now minimal. So, this ends my storm coverage for the night. In the early morning, I'll have a post up about the highly unfortunate tornado false alarm in Kansas City. Third Tornado Watch of the Day until 11p Second Tornado Watch of the Day The watch is in effect until 9pm. In addition to tornadoes, softball-sized hail  and  thunderstorm-generated wind gusts to 80 mph. Put your car in shelter and bring in trampolines and lawn furniture. 12:45pm First Tornado Watch of the Day Note also the forecast of tennis ball-sized hail. 11:50am The yellow are has an enhanced  risk of tornadoes and, if one forms, it could be strong. The yellow area forecast is unchanged since earlier this morning.  The brown area has a significant chance of tornadoes and, in the hatched area, the tornadoes could be strong. In Iowa, it has been extended north and, in Oklahoma, it has been extended south and east to include Oklahoma City and Tulsa.  Very l...

We are going into another period with a daily tornado or severe thunderstorm threat from tomorrow into next week. From 2pm Thursday to 5am Friday, there is a significant risk of tornadoes in the brown area. The hatching indicates there is a risk that any tornado that forms could be strong. Large or very large hail is also possible in the brown area.  From Friday to at least Monday of next week, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes each day. 

Global warming, regardless of what percent is man-made and what percent is natural, is a genuine issue that reserves genuine solutions.  Rube Goldberg machine for stapling two pieces of paper. That said, there is no question that "green" energy isn't one of them. It is an expensive, unreliable Rube Goldberg system. Here is a short piece that explains how awful green energy genuinely is . 

You have often heard about the issues facing the NWS and NOAA from this blog. As frequent readers know, I am a political conservative.  So, I wanted to bring you the perspective of a former NWS and NOAA employee who is a political liberal. You can read his entire piece here . In addition to the items he cited, for a period a few hours after Alan posted his piece, a number of NOAA web sites were down -- and the problem continues this (Wednesday) morning.  Further, Alan Gerard writes about an NWS office with no way to communicate with the outside world during a severe thunderstorm event earlier this spring: There are definitely increasing concerns about the reliability of the aging NEXRAD fleet, in this case the issues were not with the radar themselves, but apparently with communications lines. The office at Wilmington was without communication for several hours, forcing the NWS office in Cleveland to provide backup services for the incommunicado Wilmington. Cleveland issued se...

Here is the forecast rainfall for the next seven days.  8-14 Day Rainfall Outlook Note: these two week precipitation forecasts do not have a great deal of skill.  Below is the most recent drought map. Seven day forecast: The rains will be substantial enough to dent the drought in the Mid South from eastern Oklahoma to northern Alabama. There will also be some relief, generally minor, in the Intermountain region.  8-14 day forecast: If  the longer range forecast is correct, the above average rainfall area corresponds well to the worst of the drought from Florida through the Intermountain region. Cross your fingers. 

The title of this piece is a satirical headline for The New York Times  if a giant asteroid was going to strike earth the next day.*  It always comes to mind when I see a headline like the one below. Unsurprisingly, the author is affiliated with the far-left Rockefeller Foundation.  *Of course, with the mainstream media in the 2020's, it isn't satire any longer (below).