In another round of what I believe is "malicious compliance," the National Weather Service (NWS) is going to further cut back the vital weather balloon network. And, I'm told, more balloon cuts are on the way.  The NWS was -- unnecessarily -- cutting the network before President Trump was sworn in (circles). Now, they cutting more of the network back to, evidently, generate more media outrage and put more pressure on the Trump Administration. I say that because, according my sources (and I have several), not all of these offices have lost people compared to 30 days ago. They are creating a pressure campaign as we are going into the meat of tornado season and hurricane season is immediately thereafter.  Denver and Chatham (MA) have stopped launching balloons completely, the latter station has closed completely. The station in Alaska is now one per day as are all of the X's, effective immediately.  A Dangerous Game!    Russia has cut its network back to once per d...

Things have calmed down in terms of major storms. While the rain in the Northwest is unneeded, the rain elsewhere is generally beneficial. Unfortunately, more rain is needed in the central Great Plains into the Southwest but it looks dry for at least the next seven days. 

Second Tornado Watch First Tornado Watch Tornado watch in effect for "a couple of strong tornadoes" from now until 7pm CDT. It includes the south part of Chicagoland, the Quad Cities and western Indiana. Please monitor the weather the rest of the day! I am providing real-time updated information on Twitter @usweatherexpert.  --- Tornado Forecast Until 7am CDT --- The yellow, hatched area has an  enhanced risk of strong tornadoes this afternoon and evening. The brown area, which includes Chicago and the Quad Cities, has a significant risk of tornadoes. With the 11:10 update, Ft. Madison and Dubuque have been added to the brown area. In the meantime, please make sure your shelter area is cleaned out and read to go with a couple of bottles of water, shoes (if your home is hit you don't want to walk barefoot on debris), and diapers if appropriate.  If you live in a mobile home, it is important to find other shelter. If you do not have friends or family in a nearby conventiona...

A number of counties in Nebraska, Colorado and Kansas have been removed from the blizzard warning as the storm is moving northeast.  The color code: Orange = blizzard warning Gold = high wind warning Maroon = red flag warning (wildfire conditions) Pink = winter storm warning  Dark blue = winter storm watch Purple = winter weather advisory  Brown = high wind watch More than an estimated half million people are without power.  Below is the radar at 4:38p. Blue is the snow falling with the blizzard with the darker blues corresponding to a higher rate of falling snow. Amber is the NWS's tornado watches. 

Can't believe we are forecasting a blizzard again but here we go. The blizzard will affect Interstates 70, 80, 29, 90 and 35. I strong recommend not traveling (we lost ~20 people in multi-car accidents this past Friday) unless it is a genuine emergency. Snow amounts in parts of north central Kansas and south central Nebraska will exceed 6 inches in places.  The color code: Orange = blizzard warning Gold = high wind warning Maroon = red flag warning (wildfire conditions) Pink = winter storm warning  Dark blue = winter storm watch Purple = winter weather advisory  Brown = high wind watch I believe that blizzard or near blizzard conditions will occur even farther to the southeast, at least as far southeast as Manhattan and Salina and -- perhaps -- Hutchinson in Kansas.  Radar forecast (snow = blue with the heavier rate of snowfall darker blue) for 8am Wednesday. 

America's worst tornado occurred 100 years ago today.  Weatherwise, Stan Changnon The path began a little farther to the southwest in Missouri than shown here but I wanted everyone to see the detail of this horrific storm's damage. Six hundred ninety-five (695) were killed. At times, the tornado was two miles wide and, like Joplin, some did not realize a tornado was approaching. Of course, there was no warning system. 

Many have asked questions how my proposed National Disaster Review Board will function and why it is (now) an absolute necessity. I answer those in a guest piece at Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr's The Honest Broker  substack. A link, that will get you through the paywall, is here .  If, after reading my piece, you think it is a good idea, please retweet the link to the blog. And, please contact your congresspeople. These days, that is very easy. Just go to their websites and click on "Contact." There is a place to type in a message (and maybe forward the above link) and you are done.  It isn't just the billions of dollars in disaster losses. For the first time in decades, death rates are creeping up again.  If you have any questions, please feel free to ask them in a comment. Thank you. 

Unfortunately, we have another Great Plains blizzard in the offing.  The probabilities represent at least a "moderate" chance of "impacts" (i.e., closed roads, etc.). If you live in the area from north central Kansas to Upper Michigan, please prepare accordingly. 

Updated 11am Monday: -- original posting -- You may have awakened to this 'news' at the Drudge Report this morning.  Drudge links to the Irish Times ,  an Ireland-based newspaper that detests President Trump. Their headline is below. I believe the  preliminary  death toll is now up to 36 --mostly from the tornadoes.  The Irish Times, and others, are -- intentionally or not -- confusing layoffs at the National Weather Service (NWS) with the parent agency the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The former is a lean agency that issues the tornado, blizzard and dust storm warnings that were needed the past few days and the latter has traditionally had lots of fat that has been or could be cut.  For example, NOAA's cartoonist(s) has been laid off.  I can assure you the layoffs of the NOAA cartoonist(s) and in-house video staff have nothing whatsoever to do with the quality of the storm warnings mentioned above! The newspaper focused on ...

1pm Update: Another tornado watch has been issued: Currently, tornado watches are in effect for the areas outlined in amber.  The brown area is the forecast through this evening where there is a significant risk of tornadoes. From time to time I will provide additional realtime information on Twitter/X @usweatherexpert.

After more than 28 hours at the forecast desk in less than 2 days, I must call it a night.  If you are in one of the tornado watches, please continue to monitor the weather situation.

Tornado Watch until 4am, it includes Birmingham, Atlanta and Mobile.  This watch is in effect until 1am. Please make sure you have a weather radio or other system that will awaken you if a tornado warning is issued.  We now have "particularly dangerous tornado situation" tornado watches in effect for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. While the second and third in 12 hours, this type of tornado watch is rare. Note that "numerous strong tornadoes" are forecast to occur.  If you live in these areas, it is essential that you follow the latest weather information and  that you are prepared to go to your tornado shelter immediately if a warning is issued. If you need to clean or declutter your shelter area, do it now.  If you live in a mobile home, I suggest you see if you could spend the afternoon with a friend or relative in a conventional home. Know where your community shelter is located; map and list here .  Shelter recommendations: Today's o...

Forecast Until 5:30pm Extreme tornado risk in the red outlined area. Strong and violent tornadoes are both possible. Essential to keep up on the latest weather information.  Forecast Until 8am Sunday The tornado outbreak continues as of 3:20pm. Here is the color code for this latest forecast. It uses my 4-point system.  Purple, hatched: Rare extreme  risk of strong tornadoes.  Red, hatched: High risk of strong tornadoes.  Yellow, hatched: Enhanced risk of strong tornadoes.  Brown: Signfificant risk of tornadoes.  Please note that Nashville is now in the yellow area and Atlanta is right on the edge of the high risk. I will continue to tweet real-time tornado updates ( @usweatherexper t ). If you live in these areas, please keep up on the latest weather information into the night. 

Here is an important tornado forecasting/nowcasting tip. Steve Tegmeier, for this master's thesis, did a study of the patterns that lead to frequent and/or strong tornadoes. One of the more important patterns is that supercells ahead of a line visible on radar, in this case a cold front, are especially adept that producing tornadoes. In this case there are  five tornadoes being produced by supercells ahead of the cold front. Six minutes ago, the NWS Storm Prediction Center singled out these thunderstorms are currently "most concerning" tornado threat. I agree completely. These storms will almost certainly make their way into Alabama and will produce strong tornadoes. 

If you are in the hatched area, you are at risk of a strong or violent tornado.  If you are in: The purple area, it is an extreme risk. The red area is a high risk (on my 4-point scale). The yellow area is an enhanced risk.  Brown is a significant risk of any tornado.  Please keep up on the latest weather information throughout the day.

I have been in the forecast chair continuously since 8:30a Friday. I'm going to be now because Saturday will be an extremely dangerous tornado day.  There is an extreme risk of strong tornadoes in the purple area and a high risk of strong tornadoes in the red area from 7a Saturday to 8a Sunday.  Newest Tornado Watch: 1:45am Tornado Watch: 1:35am 8:06pm Overnight tornado watch until 3am.  8pm: Particularly Dangerous Situation! Rare "particularly dangerous situation" tornado watch issued for the overnight hours. Make sure yo have a way to be awakened if you receive a tornado warning.  7pm: 5pm: Meanwhile, father south, a tornado watch will likely be issued. This is where overnight tornadoes are a real danger in Louisiana, southeastern Arkansas and Mississippi.  4:55pm, tornado watch updated.  Please note what is forecast to occur: "Several strong  tornadoes, 90 mph thunderstorm-generated wind gusts, and hail to tennis ball size." I expect tornadoes after...