Get Ready for a Dangerous Weather Day Friday - Updated 6:10pm Thursday

By -
This Forecast Has Been Updated.

This has really been a difficult week with tornadoes, floods, dam breaks, giant hail and thunderstorm-generated wind gusts of more than 80 mph. Unfortunately, we have one more day and tomorrow has the potential to be the worst of all. Here's a breakdown: 

Tornado Risk
  • The yellow area with counter-hatching is where is an enhanced probability of violent tornadoes. This is a rare forecast. 
  • The yellow areas with regular hatching is where strong tornadoes are forecast. 
  • The brown area with hatching has a significant risk of tornadoes and the hatching means they could be strong.
  • The brown unhatched areas have a significant risk of tornadoes. 
Be careful in the Upper Midwest: the severe thunderstorms and tornadoes may begin as early as 10am. There could be more than one round of thunderstorms throughout the entire area above. 


Damaging Thunderstorm-Generated Winds
  • Hatching indicates gusts of 75 mph or stronger are forecast to occur.
  • Purple means there is a high risk of gusts of at least 60 mph.This includes Kansas City. 
  • Red means there is an enhanced risk.
  • Yellow means thee is a significant risk. 
  • Much of this area may have large hail, also.
Take this time to make sure you have at least two independent sources of storm warnings and that you have weather radios with fresh batteries, generators ready to go, lawn furniture brought in. Put your car in the garage or a carport, if possible.

The Forecast Radar for Thursday Afternoon

Before going further a caution: Never take these radar forecasts to be exact. They are, at best, approximations of how the radar will look. 

It is important to note that when you have a cell or cells ahead of a line of thunderstorms in a powerful severe weather situation, the easternmost storms (the cells/storms ahead of the main line) are often the ones more capable of producing strong tornadoes and giant hail. Both they and the western line are capable of damaging winds and mild to moderate hail. If tornadoes come from the western line they will usually be of a more brief nature. 

Don't think the storms are over if one storm or line of storms comes through. It is very possible there will be two or more periods of storms.

Of course, I will update this forecast in the morning. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

"Particularly Dangerous Situation" - Update 5:35pm

By -
Image
A major windstorm is forecast for Oklahoma and Texas Sunday.  This has the potential to cause widespread power failures.  Please prepare now. More information below.  5:35pm:  Particularly Dangerous Situation watch due to wind gusts forecast to reach 105 mph and  with hail 5" in diameter. Tornadoes also possible.  If you live in a mobile home, now is the time to determine your sheltering situation. I urge you to shelter before warnings are issued (spend the evening with friends or family). Power outages are likely. A mobile vehicle from the National Severe Storms Laboratory has already measured a gust of 90 mph! 3:05pm Update: Computer models have consistently increased their forecasts of peak wind gusts pertaining to north central Texas this evening. Wind gusts of 110 mph are possible. If correct, widespread power outages are likely.  First Watch of the Day Pertaining to the  Derecho   In addition to the threat of tornadoes, wind gusts of 80...
Read more

Tornado and Destructive Wind Risk Late This Afternoon and Tonight

By -
Image
It is imperative residents of the central Great Plains use the forecast to prepare for damaging winds and, perhaps, a tornado or two.  Tornado Risk The brown area has been moved south into northern Oklahoma and now includes Bartlesville, Ponca City, Enid, and Stillwater, in addition to the cities shown. In Missouri, it includes Joplin and Nevada.  Destructive Thunderstorm Winds Here is the color code: Pink and hatched: High  risk of destructive winds of 75 mph or stronger.  Red and hatched: Enhanced risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger.  Yellow: Significant risk of winds 60 mph or stronger.  If you live in the red or pink areas, I urge  you to prepare for the potential for power outages, some could last a day or more. Bring in lawn furniture or trampolines which could blow about and crash into other objects -- increasing damage. Put your car in the garage or carport. 
Read more