Today's Tornado Risk Forecast

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My ability to make a tornado forecast this morning is severely hampered by the NWS's inability to launch its complement of weather balloons. 

So, I have decided to present both the NWS's tornado forecast (brown) and my own. 

NWS: The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes and where you see the hatching, any tornado could be strong. 

My Forecast: The red outline is where there is a significant risk of tornadoes after 2pm and lasting until 4am Monday. I am not attempting to forecast intensity at this time. 

My Reasoning: there is a warm front across the western part of the threat area. Later today, pressures will fall rapidly in the area as a low pressure system comes out of the Rockies. Due to the lack of weather balloons, it is extremely difficult to get a handle on how much instability will exist late this afternoon and tonight. If there is sufficient instability, supercells could develop which would produce large or very large hail and, possibly tornadoes. 

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