Today's Tornado Risk Forecast - Update 9:45p

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Tornado Watch Until 4am
This could be a dangerous nighttime tornado situation. Please make sure you have multiple ways of receiving storm warnings during the night!

I am continuing to provide updates on Twitter/X @usweatherexpert .  Please follow along and invite your friends and family to do so. 


Tornadoes Forecast Until 4am
NWS is forecasting "a couple of tornadoes" during the night along with apple-sized hail and 70 mph winds. Some of the models are showing severe thunderstorms in the KC and western Missouri area from 5am to 8am. Please make sure you have some way of receiving warnings during the night. 

4th Tornado Watch - Overnight Threat!
I'm very concerned about the threat of overnight tornadoes and I am glad the NWS is, too. Note this tornado watch is in effect until 2am. 


Third Tornado Watch, 5:15pm
This watch includes Tulsa. 


Second Tornado Watch
This is for Texas and Oklahoma. 


Tornado Watch Issued

9am Tornado Forecast
My ability to make a tornado forecast this morning is severely hampered by the NWS's inability to launch its complement of weather balloons. 

So, I have decided to present both the NWS's tornado forecast (brown) and my own. 

NWS: The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes and where you see the hatching, any tornado could be strong. 

My Forecast: The red outline is where there is a significant risk of tornadoes after 2pm and lasting until 4am Monday. I am not attempting to forecast intensity at this time. 

My Reasoning: there is a warm front across the western part of the threat area. Later today, pressures will fall rapidly in the area as a low pressure system comes out of the Rockies. Due to the lack of weather balloons, it is extremely difficult to get a handle on how much instability will exist late this afternoon and tonight. If there is sufficient instability, supercells could develop which would produce large or very large hail and, possibly tornadoes. 

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