However, the storm is forecast to reach tropical storm force ("S") before it crosses the coast. It will weaken back to a tropical depression ("D") before it reaches Dallas.  The small pink area is where a hurricane watch is in effect. The blue = tropical storm warning. Here is a forecast of rainfall amounts. Fortunately, the heaviest rain is forecast to miss the Hill Country where so much flood suffering has occurred the past 18 months. 

Posted today, the original post (below) was published August 31 -- original post -- There is no need for this to be recurring.  This is the current headline in the U.S. version of the Daily Mail. There have been a rash of of lightning deaths in Florida this season. You can find the story here .  You can find lightning first aid tips here .  Please take our suggestions for lightning safety seriously. 

The area in red is where is there is a serious risk of flash floods between now and 6am Arizona / 5am Mountain time Tuesday. Please keep up on the latest weather information!

According to the Grand Canyon office of the National Park Service, the major flash flood occurred Saturday at 2:30 pm MST (4:30pm CDT).  Unfortunately, the National Weather Service's flash flood warning was not issued until 2:42pm, twelve minutes after the flash flood occurred. The worst flooding was apparently in the Bright Angel Creek area. While this was a fast developing flood situation, there were clues. The National Weather Service excessive rainfall forecasting group had put that area under what some would call a flood alert. The image is part of a detailed meteorological (technical) discussion regarding the enhanced risk of flash flooding within the purple area. It was issued at 11:13am Arizona time, about three hours before the flood.  The radar showed torrential rain (for Arizona) occurred starting roughly 20 minutes before the flood. Here is the radar three minutes before the flood (4:27 CDT = 2:27 pm MST). The area of interest is about 5 miles northeast of Grand Ca...

6pm: The number of missing seems to have been lowered to 15.  4:15 CDT: The photo below, from the National Park Service, shows a footbridge carried downstream from the Bright Angel Campground as a result of yesterday's flood.  From Phoenix's Arizona Republic: From Flagstaff's Arizona Daily Sun: 4:43pm - National Park Service request for public assistance. The sign says Phantom Ranger Station Entrance.  Video of the flash flood, after the initial wave, as seen from above is here .  I will update this story as more information becomes available.

For years, WeatherData Inc., the company I founded to provide highly specific storm warnings and consulting services to businesses, used "the chair guy" to help make the point about the value of our services. The photo was taken in France. They had flooding in the French City of Marseille the evening of the 24th and they went back to their "old, reliable" method of flood mitigation. Must be a French thing. 😊

I understand a petition is going around to rename Nashville International Airport (KBNA) after Dolly Parton.  Suggestion: I think that is a great idea but, while you are at it, petition the FAA to change the awful "BNA" call sign to DLY. Since it is in North America, it would be KDLY.  I just checked and it appears the KDLY is available. Do it!!

The is a significant risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger in the yellow area. This includes West Wendover and Cherry Creek in Nevada. 

Fortunately, the storm, which was forecast to be short-lived, was just that.  Right now, there is nothing significant in the tropics as per the United States. 

Heavy rain with a flash flood risk is forecast to occur from Yellowstone through Salt Lake/Wastach and south into Arizona the next few days. Tomorrow (Saturday) there is a risk of damaging winds from northeast Nevada through northern Utah and into southwest Wyoming. 

This is Atlantic tropical storm Dolly. It is weak and is expected to dissipate in three days.  It is an amazing coincidence the name Dolly came up now. As the National Hurricane Center explains. 

Here's the full story .  To no one's surprise, the police chief extolls the virtues of having the citizens of his city being watched by his officers 24/7/365. He says the cameras have solved crimes.  But there is a word we don't ever see in the story: "warrant."   The police chief:   He said Lee's Summit police have used the cameras to assist in homicide, robbery and child exploitation cases and said they recently helped to locate a child who was the subject of an Amber Alert. They get warrants routinely in "homicide, robbery and child exploitation" cases. Can they get them to track people or autos with the cameras? Of course, they can. If they have time to get out an Amber Alert, they can get a warrant.  Since this was published, the number of police people accused is 70+. Think back to the lockdowns during COVID. Did you go out when you technically weren't supposed to? Chances are you did. I certainly did, one time to go out as a storm spotter....

I really enjoyed Never Stop Chasing  in the theatre Tuesday evening. It is the story of ultra chaser Reed Timmer, PhD. It was far  better than Twisters  and, in many ways was superior to the original  Twister  because it is the story of authentic storm chasing. The video is just spectacular, especially in the final scene involving chasing a violent tornado in Iowa.  Two things: Regardless of what Reed does, 1) Always wear a seat belt and, 2) Never, ever, ever get under a bridge to shelter from a tornado. I also didn't care for the thunder sound effects when most lightning flashes occurred.  Never Stop Chasing  ends its theatrical run Thursday evening. I urge you to see it on the big screen. 

I was so sorry to read that Dolly has passed away at the age of 80. What an incredible person and what a great life she led! In my early television days (1971-75) at WKY-TV in Oklahoma City, we produced the weekly  Buck Owens Show . Dolly was an occasional guest (below). The Buck Owens regulars and guests would invade (and that was the correct word) Studio 1 every Sunday evening. I would see Dolly in the hallway from time to time on the way to Studio 2 where I did the weather. I didn't really know who she was and -- not being a C&W fan -- I never introduced myself. For many years, I have kicked myself for not taking advantage of that opportunity.  May she rest in peace for a life well-lived. 

I found this map from AccuWeather to be quite interesting. 

As we wind down the summer camping, golf, hiking and outdoor season. 

The amber is the area of winds of ~ 40 mph. It is passing well south of the island chain. Note that the direct tropical storm winds will not affect the islands. There will, however, be dangerous surf -- especially on the south side of the islands. The radar at 7:04am shows the majority of rain is also passing south of the Big Island. There is rain on the island (look closely at the radar) but it will not be as severe as with Lala.  This will be the last update on Moke. 

Satellite image from 1pm Hawaii time (arrow points to the Island of Hawaii) shows Moke southeast of the island.  Below is the latest path forecast from the National Hurricane Center. There are no watches or warnings for the Hawaiian Islands because the wind from the storm will not reach the islands (although stronger than average, gusty winds are possible). The amber area is the area of tropical storm force winds in association with Moke.  HOWEVER, 8-12 inches of rain are likely over The Big Island with isolated 15" amounts. Flooding and mudslides are possible. The rains began this afternoon and will get heavier tonight. 

....to the people or organizations that licensed six of my images yesterday. It is much appreciated! When you have a moment, stop by the gallery and take a look. 

The center of Tropical Storm Mokie will pass well south of the Islands -- however, pressure gradient winds will still be gusty across the State of Hawaii as it moves. There will be rainfall up to 15" on the Island of Hawaii which will cause additional flooding and mudslides. 

Some 1" hail and gusts to 55 69 mph occurred in Johnson County, Kansas. Thought you might enjoy the picture. The hail was falling from the slightly turquoise area. Click on the link to see the entire photo. 

“The ‘Spare’ Heirs”    Come and listen to a story about a prince named Har... Found he didn’t like the Californ-ee air, Couldn’t make enough to feed his family food So he packed ‘em up and shipped the whole brood...   To England that is…. Family Jewells … North Sea Oil   Ole Har was thinkin’ he’d coin money and drink beer... But the kin-folks said, “Stay Away From Here!” “ Af-ri-ca is the place you otta be” But, Har said “no” and they flew to Der-by   England that is…old, industrial, and away from fam-lee.  [ Cue Banjo  and announcer: ] The "Spare" Heirs!

The tropical depression is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Mokie on Friday.. However, the storm is not forecast to reach hurricane intensity. The center of the storm will stay south of the Hawaiian Islands. HOWEVER, heavy rain is again forecast to occur on the Big Island.  As much as 15 inches of rain is forecast on the Island of Hawaii which will cause a recurrence of flooding but it should not be as bad as occurred with Lala. 

I don't know what is going on, but the NWS just issued a tornado watch for the area below.  We've already had tornado warnings issued. If you live in these areas, please keep up on the latest weather information for the rest of this afternoon and this evening.  -- 2:40 pm -- Surprisingly, given their forecast (below), the NWS has issued a severe thunderstorm, rather than tornado watch, even though the watch forecasts tornadoes. Got it? Please monitor the weather through this evening if you live in these areas.  -- 12:40pm EDT -- As I feared, the NWS Storm Prediction Center has upgraded and extended the tornado risk forecast in the Middle Atlantic Region.  The significant tornado risk (brown) was extended farther south and now includes Washington and more of DelMarVa. The hatching, also new, indicates the possibility of a strong tornado or two. In addition, the area with an enhanced risk of damaging winds (red) has been expanded. Please keep an eye on the weather in t...

Here is the first National Hurricane Center forecast for the low pressure system that may affect Hawaii. The tropical depression is expected to become a tropical storm (" S ") by tomorrow. The white area is the area of uncertainty regarding the center of the storm, not the storm's total effects. There is a risk of heavy rain over the islands, especially the Big Island (the Island of Hawaii) which has severely hit by Lala. Hawaii almost never is struck by tropical storms/hurricsanes except in years with moderate to strong El Nino's. This year has one of the strongest El Nino's ever.  Because I cannot assess the current status of the washouts in Hawaii and Maui, I'm not in a position to give advice with the exception of putting together a "go bag." Recommended contents are below, although they left off plenty of diapers, if appropriate.  Please follow local officials' recommendations.  Of course, I will update later today and tomorrow.