Hawaii Hurricane Threat

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-- This is a Preliminary Forecast --

The graphic is an "envelope" of solutions from the best models in the world regarding the potential track of a tropical storm or hurricane. The highest resolution forecasts are the thick blue, red and yellow lines. The green is just showers between now and the storm's arrival on the Island of Hawaii.

The ECMWF model shows the current area of low pressure reaching hurricane force as it reaches the islands. In this case, the stronger winds will be on the north side of the storm's center. There will also be a significant storm surge. 

We have a strong El Nino and climatology shows that is when the Hawaiian Islands are most likely to be hit. 

I expect the National Hurricane Center will begin official advisories later today. I just wanted to give m my readers a "heads up."

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