As someone who has been a professional meteorologist and weather scientist for more than 55 years, let me state that the tropical weather forecast for the Southeast United States over the next week is both complex and unusual. While there have been tropical systems in close proximity before (it doesn't need climate change to occur), the fact these two systems (and perhaps a third according to one model) will be close together does complicate the forecast. One model currently shows one of the storms approaching the coast, heading out to the Atlantic, heading back to toward the U.S. and then back into the Atlantic (somewhat similar to Sandy but a different location).  I bring this up because the transition of climate news to climate propaganda continues. CBS has more or less farmed out its climate news to an advocacy company called Climate Central . If either Humberto or the potential Imelda takes an unusual path I guarantee it will be blamed on global warming.  So, as you ...

Here is a forecast from AccuWeather showing  when the major dangerous ocean conditions are forecast to occur. The "Stadium Effect" This is what the Hurricane Hunters see when they are in the eye of a strong hurricane. Picture yourself in a stadium with a a retractable roof that is partially open. You are standing on the field and around you are the clouds of the eye representing the bleachers/seats. Looking straight up is the sky.  Update Erin intensified quite rapidly overnight and is now Cat 4 intensity. I am covering it because it will produce dangerous, and possibly damaging, surf and rip currents along the Atlantic Coast. The National Hurricane Center did a great job forecasting the intensification.  Eric is forecast to reach a peak sustained wind speed of 165 mph later today which would make it a rare Cat 5 hurricane.  Reminder: the white outline is the forecast path of the center  of the storm. 

.... I learned that there is a term for an irrational fear of tornadoes and hurricanes. It is known as lilapsophobia .  There are some people who really suffer because of that fear. 

Turns out, everything is solved and there will be no adverse effect to hurricane forecasting. 

....there is NO tropical storm or hurricane forecast to strike the United States in the next seven days (and nothing beyond that, although our forecast skill is lower past a week).  There's one thing I can promise: zero storm hype in our storm coverage. 

The latest news from Washington has the Trump Administration's budget calling for huge cuts in NOAA's research arm, Office of Oceanic & Atmospheric Research (OAR), by 74%.  Before going farther, there is no way this will get through Congress and a compromise will be reached. Unfortunately, the usual suspects are overstating the problem. See below: I intentionally left off the author's names This is absolutely untrue. Even if OAR were eliminated, it would have zero effect on current forecast and warning accuracy. Zero. It is true the loss of OAR might affect future forecasts but not now.  In addition to the budget cuts, the National Weather Service's Space Weather Program, which monitors for solar flares and other occurrences that could seriously disrupt life on earth, is proposed to move to Homeland Security (DHS). I have very mixed feelings about this: because a serious electromagnetic pulse (EMP) could take us back to the late 1800's (without late 1800's i...

If you are going to head south to get out of January's persistent cold, here is a great and uplifting book for your trip . It tells the story of how the storm warning system came to be with stories of all of the lives that have been saved -- and, the courageous scientists who make the warning system possible. It is available in paperback or Kindle . If you prefer more drama, there is the story of the worst tornado warning failure -- ever. It occurred in Joplin, Missouri, on May 22, 2011, when 161 people perished when the tornado warning was badly botched. Like Warnings,   When the Sirens Were Silent  is written like a novel and is completely non-technical. Tragically, it demonstrates that triple digit fatalities from a single tornado will resume if/when the tornado warning system fails. In the case of Sirens,  the paper version sold out very quickly. It is available in Kindle for just $2.99. This is an important story, so we priced it accordingly. 

As of the time of this posting, the price of this great book is a great bargain! An independent survey shows Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather is the 17th best selling book about weather of the past few decades. Written in the form of a novel, it tells the story of how we learned to warn of hurricanes and tornadoes and prevent once-frequent airliner crashes due to downbursts -- saving hundreds of lives. Amazon says: The discerning audience at Goodreads rates it highly.  Based on past years, the price goes up as Christmas approaches. Books make great gifts. Consider starting your shopping early while you can take advantage of this great price!

Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center. Tropical storm warning for Jamaica. Hurricane warning for the Cayman Islands. Hurricane watch for western Cuba along with a tropical storm watch farther east.  While the storm is still a tropical depression, it is forecast to strengthen into Rafael. The forecast is for the storm to weaken before reaching the U.S. coast. 

The only thing I think could account for this absurd headline is that Big Climate's internal polling shows a big shift toward Republicans with the election now less than two weeks away. Perhaps they believe that scaring unwitting people might move the needle back toward the Democrats.  The chance of a hurricane striking Chicago now? Zero. Chance of a hurricane striking Chicago in 2100?   Zero. 

I don't know why the Daily Mail  is so determined to report false weather information .   The graphic is from the National Hurricane Center and the 60% odds refer to the weather system at the X becoming a tropical depression,  not a hurricane. A tropical depression is even below a tropical storm in the hierarchy of tropical weather systems. And, while it is potentially (hasn't formed yet) headed in the direction of the Gulf of Mexico or Florida, it is not forecast to approach the U.S. through ten days. The red equals where the storm weakens.  I never thought we would be in an era of "weather porn" but here we are. I promise I will never intentionally hype a storm and that I will inform you when there is something to be concerned about, as I did with Helene when others were forecasting " isolated " flooding in the southern Appalachians. As always, I invite you to let your friends know about this blog if you wish to have accurate and non-sensational weather i...

Satellite image at 2:25pm CDT shows intensifying Hurricane Milton developing an eye. The storm has maximum winds of 80 mph and the central pressure has dropped to 988 millibars.  3pm CDT My forecast for the point of landfall for the eye has barely changed since yesterday.  I am forecasting the eye to make landfall between the two arrows. However, in addition to the danger of winds in the eyewall, there will be a life-threatening storm surge! For example, if the eye passes just north of Tampa Bay and it reaches at least Cat 2 intensity, there will be places that experience a storm surge of more than 9 feet above sea level. By far, the worst storm surge effects will be near and south of the eye.  The intensity forecast is rather difficult. The models are all over the map. My best forecast at this point is that the storm will be Cat 2 or 3 at landfall. Cat 4 is certainly possible. That is sufficient to cause serious damage. The fact the storm will strike the coast at or near...

The National Hurricane Center's forecast (upper) is now for Milton to be a Cat 3 at landfall. Its 9:45pm forecast is immediately below. The storm now has 45 mph winds.  My forecast is unchanged from 3:40pm this afternoon. The advance below is also unchanged.  Milton is still a tropical storm at 4pm. Its pressure is 1006 mb and its winds are up to 40 mph. However, it is forecast to develop into a hurricane and strike the west coast of Florida the middle of next week.  What makes the situation unusual is that the storm will be approaching from the west southwest. This means the storm will strike at nearly a 90° angle. That enhances the storm surge and wind effects along and, especially, just to the right (in this case, south) of the eye.  Milton may resemble 2005's Wilma (map below). Peach is Cat 2 and yellow is Cat 1.  Even though Wilma was not particularly strong, its approach angle made the storm more powerful than many people in Florida expected. It did a...

NHC is now forecasting sustained winds of 120 mph at landfall which would be a strong Cat 3 hurricane. People in Tallahassee should prepare for hurricane force winds.  Next update will be tomorrow morning.  ---- The newest satellite image (6:54pm) shows Helene developing rapidly. This lends credibility to the forecasts and I urge you to follow the safety recommendations.  ----- 5:15pm update below ---- Hurricane Helene is forecast to come into the Florida Panhandle late Thursday with high winds and a major storm surge ahead of the center. Here is a complete update on the storm. Please forward this information to your friends and relatives.  Hurricane Warnings  have been issued for parts of the Gulf Coast of Florida. The central pressure has dropped to 995 millibars (as of 6pm) 992 990 millibars at 8pm and the maximum sustained winds are 50 60 mph. There are also hurricane warnings for Cancun and the northeast Yucatan. The Forecast Path of the Eye of Helene Her...

This forecast has been updated. Please go here for a later forecast.  Information for meteorologists is at the bottom of this post.  This map is critical.  It shows the life-threatening storm surge expected with Helene.  Five to eight feet of surge expected in Tampa Bay and highly dangerous surges to the north.  Helene is officially a tropical storm. The central pressure is 1000mb and the maximum sustained winds are 45 mph.  Pink is a hurricane watch. Helene is a very large storm which means two things: there will be strong wind gusts to the east of the center and inland (the hurricane watch extends to the Georgia coast) and that there will be flooding well inland, especially near and east of the mountains in Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. Wind gusts of 50 mph or stronger could reach as far inland as Atlanta.  Yellow is a tropical storm watch which means there is the potential for wind gusts above 50 mph. Here is an explanation of the ma...

Above is the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center, but I have added all of the Tampa Metro area and coastal areas south to Sarasota to the forecast of possible paths of the storm's center.  It is important to consider that, if this is a perfect forecast or the storm moves a little to the east of the current path, there will be a significant storm surge in the Tampa Bay region.  Here is an explanation of the map.  M = major hurricane with winds to 115 mph.  H = hurricane. S = tropical storm.  Blue = tropical storm warnings Pink = hurricane watch Yellow = tropical storm watch  Assuming the forecast works out, the hurricane will be named Helene.  What would I do  now  if I lived in a coastal area with this storm potential?  Make sure infirm relatives and friends will be cared for.  Refill prescriptions.  Purchase any essentials. Fully fuel your auto and/or chain saw.  Make sure your "go kit" is up-to-date and re...

Via Twitter and email, I've had readers express concern that a hurricane is going to strike the U.S. coast this week.  While in September (the height of hurricane season) it isn't impossible, there are no  indications at this time of a hurricane threat to the U.S. between now and Saturday.  Yes, as far back as Tuesday of last week, there have been irresponsible people making forecasts well beyond atmospheric science's capability who were guessing a hurricane might occur and some of them are still at it. It is the policy of this blog not to make hurricane guesses! Especially to my two Houston-area readers: after the spring derecho and Beryl, I certainly understand why you would be anxious but there is no reason to be. Please enjoy your holiday today and if a tropical system develops and is within 5-7 days, I will let you know. Promise. 

As of 12:08pm Hawaii time, the center of Hone (circled) has passed the Island of Hawaii. None of the other islands will be significantly affected other than with heavy rain. 

This Discovery Channel series, In the Eye of the Storm, depicts major storms and storm situations across the United States. It did a pretty good job (grade B) but it really needed a meteorologist-editor because there were so many unnecessary errors that were, at least to this meteorologist, annoying. I'm hoping that there will be a second year and I offer some suggestions for improvement.  A recurring minor annoyance. Use of a backward hurricane symbol (it shows clockwise rotation rather than counterclockwise which occurs in the Northern Hemisphere) when discussing tornadoes and other types of storms. Example below. It would be better not to use a hurricane symbol when discussing tornadoes.  In the episode about the horrible Buffalo blizzard of 2022 (47 killed in Buffalo, 100+ total from the blizzard), there was a story about wonderful people who went out into the extreme cold and snow to rescue a man who was freezing and trapped. They asked for help to get him to a hospital ...

At this point, the 2024 hurricane season is nothing special,  even with Hurricane Ernesto in progress.  This is quite a contrast to the 2024 hurricane season forecasts. A small sample is below.  Many were mentioning climate change as a reason for the much above normal hurricane season we were forecast to have. What's Next?? Looking ahead to the end of hurricane season, Dr. Sam Lillo created a graph of hurricane statistics brought to my attention yesterday by Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr .  August 15 is the vertical line at right and the star? As Roger explains it,  The figure above shows that historically, the median number of storms to occur after August 15th is about 12, the 90th percentile is about 17 storms, with the most being 22. If seasonal forecasts are going to verify, then the Atlantic needs to get busy — which is of course still very possible... According to the National Hurricane Center, other than Ernesto, no storm is forecast to occur in the Atlantic in th...