Central United States This is what I was afraid of. The remains of Polo will cause flooding in the central U.S. The map is the seven day rainfall outlook. The bright amber color is five inch amounts and there will be locally more. While it is too soon to specifically pin down the more significant flooding areas, it will occur. Please monitor a trusted local weather source or this blog over the next few days.  Hawaii While the hurricane watch continues for The Big Island and the tropical storm warnings continue for Hawaii, Maui and Lanai, I don't think wind will be the bigger problem. The issue will be flooding rains -- again -- on Hawaii where as much as 25" inches will occur. Major   to catastrophic flooding will result, especially on the eastern half of the island. Please prepare now!

Hurricane "Nolo" (not to be confused with Polo, also in progress) is threatening the Big Island (Island of Hawaii) with flooding rain, dangerous storm surge and, perhaps, damaging winds.  We should have a much better idea of the future path and intensity of the hurricane tomorrow and I'll provide additional information.  New Mexico and the Southwest Extremely heavy rain is falling in New Mexico east of Interstate 25 (the blank triangle is because New Mexico does not have adequate NWS radar coverage). Flooding has occurred in a number of areas. The town of Mora, NM had its high school flooded and numerous roads are washed out.  Hurricane Polo continues to move toward Baja California. It may cause a dangerous storm surge and dangerous swells at Cabo as the storm passes to the west. It also has the potential to cause additional flooding in the Southwest if it holds together when it crosses the board.

Here is the flash flood forecast from now until 6am Thursday. Please take this seriously and -- whatever you do -- do not cross flooded areas by foot or by car.  Powerful Hurricane Polo is still forecast to make a turn to the north the first of next week and it has the potential to bring more flooding to the Southwest. Note: storm surge flooding is possible in Cabo. Hawaii The Big Island is again in the "cone" (white area which is the range of uncertainty in the forecast path of the storm's center). Right now, the bigger threats are flooding and storm surge coastal flooding. Whether wind will be a major threat will depend on the exact path of the storm. 

8:40pm   Below is my last update of the evening. Things are pretty well locked in as far as the forecast is concerned and, without a functioning radar on Kauai, I can't do the precision work I had in mind.  Good bless everyone in Hawaii and Aloha for tonight.  8:20pm Update Via Molokai radar (Kauai's is still down), the eye is about to move over Niihau. Peak winds over Niihau will be 100 mph with a few higher gusts. Kauai will see gusts to near 100 around Barking Sands and the Na Pali Coast along with in mountain areas. Gusts as far east as Lihue will be near 60 mph.  The tornado risk continues until 4am HST. Flash flood warning continues for all of Kauai and Niihau.  Tens of thousands of homes and businesses are without power in Hawaii.  The eye of the storm is indicated by an E. The direction of movement by arrows. W = area of highest winds and it is intentionally wider on the east side. See storm surge forecast below.  7:08pm Update Using the radar ...

11am Hawaii Time: As of this time, there is no indication Lowell is weakening. It also appears to be moving slightly east of the path shown in the map below. Preparations should be rushed to completion.  7am Hawaii Time: It looks to me that the center of the storm may move on a slightly more eastern path than shown. As of 7am, the maximum sustained winds (with higher gusts) are 120 mph. This storm is likely to cause significant damage. Tropical storm WARNING now for Oahu. The Kauai radar is now operating. Thank you, NWS!! -- map updated 8am Hawaii time -- Hurricane Warnings are now in effect for Kauai and Niihau.  Tropical Storm Watch for Oahu (includes Honolulu). Red = Hurricane Warning. Yellow = tropical storm watch. White is the path of the center  of the storm at the specified times (Hawaiian Standard). Brown is the radius of sustained 75 mph or stronger winds. Amber is the radius of tropical storm force winds (39 to 74 mph).  The red line to the west (upper left...

As I feared (see below), the National Hurricane Center has moved the path of Hurricane Lowell farther east, which requires a hurricane watch for Kauai and Niihau. The pink/blue = tropical storm warning  with a hurricane watch. Red is a hurricane warning for the western Hawaii Atoll, which are largely unpopulated islands and mini-islands. Take a look at the brown area which is the radius of hurricane force winds ( ≥ 75 mph) and the amber is tropical storm force winds (39-74 mph). Remember, the white is the forecast path of the center  of the storm.  From the National Hurricane Center  The surf will be more than rough, it will be life-threatening. Below are the storm surges as forecast by NHC. Of course, the high waves generated by Lowell will be on top of the storm surge. There will be flooding, especially on Kauai and landslides are possible in the mountains.  While this is not as strong as Iniki (whose center went right over Kauai), all hurricanes are dangerous...

Blue = tropical storm warning for Niihau and Kauai. Red is a hurricane warning for the western Hawaii Atoll but I'm unclear as to why that was issued so far west.  Considerable flooding with possible landslides are forecast for Kauai. I can't emphasize how dangerous the surf will be, especially on the south and west sides of each of the islands. 

The forecast is unchanged since earlier this morning (Hawaiian time). The storm is still expected to be a major hurricane when it makes its closest approach to Kauai and Niihau.  Here is the outlook for those two islands: Storm surge 1-3 feet. Dangerous, life-threatening surf, especially on the south and west beaches.  Flooding rains possible with as much as 10" of rain. The rains will begin Sunday afternoon and continue until midweek. Note: 10" also possible The Big Island.  Landslides possible. Note: it has been my experience that airlines sometimes cancel flights -- where cancellations are not necessary -- when dealing with hurricanes. It would not surprise me at all to see flights cancelled to Lihue, Kauai, before this is over. If you want to leave, I recommend you leave asap. 

Here is an updated forecast for the path of the center of Lowell. It has been moved slightly east and people on Kauai should pay very close attention to the latest forecasts. It appears clear that gusts of 50 mph or more will occur on Barking Sands and in other western areas of the island. Heavy rain is likely with a chance of flash flooding, especially on the south and west sides of the island.  On Kauai and all of the Hawaiian Islands dangerous, life-threatening surf is forecast to occur.  If I were on Kauai, I would be preparing for these conditions. 

Update at 5pm. No change in the path forecast. Reminder: dangerous surf and, on Kauai, heavy rains are possible.  Lowell is redeveloping into a Cat 5 hurricane but will weaken some when it comes closest to Hawaii. The good news is that the forecast shown below hasn't changed as of 11 am Hawaii time Friday. I reiterate:   Regardless of Lowell's exact path, there will be life-threatening high surf, especially on the south and southwest side of the islands. --- original 4:40am Hawaii time posting --- Some tentative good news this morning. Lowell is now forecast to move west of the primary Hawaii Islands, per the National Hurricane Center.  Regardless of Lowell's exact path, there will be life-threatening high surf, especially on the south and southwest side of the islands. This forecast is not the final word. A Hurricane Hunter plane will investigate the storm later today which should yield a high confidence forecast. 

The Island of Kauai and the Island of Niihau are now in the "cone of uncertainty" regarding major Hurricane Lowell. While this is a long way from a hurricane warning, I make two suggestions: If you are traveling to or from Hawaii, please consider this in your plans. If you live on Kauai or Niihau, please be thinking about preliminary preparations.  Regardless, there will be extreme, dangerous surf with this storm irrespective of whether a landfall occurs. 

The National Hurricane Center is pulled their 5th day forecast (8am Monday) farther to the right (east) which would tend to increase the threat to the western Hawaiian Islands.  If you have travel plans, please consider the threat from Hurricane Lowell. If I were vacationing on Kauai, I might consider heaving home now later than Sunday night.  If you live on Oahu or Kauai, please consider preliminary preparations.  11am Hawaii time photo Original Post: The two best hurricane forecasting models in the world show the potential for a major hurricane to pass near -- to the west -- of Hawaii Islands. However,  the trend of the models has been for a gradual shift east in the track forecast. The latest ECMWF wind speed swath forecast is below. About the only time Hawaii gets major hurricanes, which almost always come from the south, is during El Nino years and we have a strong El Nino at this point.  The timing of the approach Hurricane Lowell will be the early part of...

The amber is the area of winds of ~ 40 mph. It is passing well south of the island chain. Note that the direct tropical storm winds will not affect the islands. There will, however, be dangerous surf -- especially on the south side of the islands. The radar at 7:04am shows the majority of rain is also passing south of the Big Island. There is rain on the island (look closely at the radar) but it will not be as severe as with Lala.  This will be the last update on Moke. 

Satellite image from 1pm Hawaii time (arrow points to the Island of Hawaii) shows Moke southeast of the island.  Below is the latest path forecast from the National Hurricane Center. There are no watches or warnings for the Hawaiian Islands because the wind from the storm will not reach the islands (although stronger than average, gusty winds are possible). The amber area is the area of tropical storm force winds in association with Moke.  HOWEVER, 8-12 inches of rain are likely over The Big Island with isolated 15" amounts. Flooding and mudslides are possible. The rains began this afternoon and will get heavier tonight. 

The center of Tropical Storm Mokie will pass well south of the Islands -- however, pressure gradient winds will still be gusty across the State of Hawaii as it moves. There will be rainfall up to 15" on the Island of Hawaii which will cause additional flooding and mudslides. 

The tropical depression is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Mokie on Friday.. However, the storm is not forecast to reach hurricane intensity. The center of the storm will stay south of the Hawaiian Islands. HOWEVER, heavy rain is again forecast to occur on the Big Island.  As much as 15 inches of rain is forecast on the Island of Hawaii which will cause a recurrence of flooding but it should not be as bad as occurred with Lala. 

Here is the first National Hurricane Center forecast for the low pressure system that may affect Hawaii. The tropical depression is expected to become a tropical storm (" S ") by tomorrow. The white area is the area of uncertainty regarding the center of the storm, not the storm's total effects. There is a risk of heavy rain over the islands, especially the Big Island (the Island of Hawaii) which has severely hit by Lala. Hawaii almost never is struck by tropical storms/hurricsanes except in years with moderate to strong El Nino's. This year has one of the strongest El Nino's ever.  Because I cannot assess the current status of the washouts in Hawaii and Maui, I'm not in a position to give advice with the exception of putting together a "go bag." Recommended contents are below, although they left off plenty of diapers, if appropriate.  Please follow local officials' recommendations.  Of course, I will update later today and tomorrow. 

The National Hurricane Center says there is a 90% chance of a developing system southeast of Hawaii turning into at least a tropical depression.  Very preliminary indications are that a tropical system, with possible heavy rain, will affect the islands the latter half of the weekend or the first of next week.  I will, of course, provide updates. 

Lala is now well south of Kauai and is continue to move to the west. Heavy rain continue to fall with the storm. However, this will be the last report on Lala. 

Tropical storm warnings (blue) in effect for all Hawaiian Islands at this time. Heavy rains have been lashing Maui and Lanai. Heavy rains are now occurring on Oahu and flash flood warnings were issued for the entire island about 30 minutes ago. Sustained winds are 65 to near 70 mph.  Destructive winds will occur on the higher elevations of the islands. Serious flooding is likely. A storm surge of 1-3 feet will occur along with dangerous surf. On the Big Island, homes have been washed away as more than 40 inches  of rain has fallen in spots. To give you an idea of the scale of the flooding disaster, here are before and current photos of its Rainbow Falls. Via AccuWeather When this is over, Hawaii is going to need a lot of help.