Heads Up: New Mexico
I am concerned about a Pacific weather system that may eventually cause serious flooding in New Mexico.
The latest reliable model (ECMWF) has the system becoming at least a tropical storm and reading the mouth of the Gulf of California. These systems, historically, cause flooding in the Southwest or Central United States.
Over the next seven days, the NWS is forecast as much as 5" of rain in eastern New Mexico which could be 1/3rd of its annual rainfall in the area. This has the potential to cause serious flooding. For what it is worth, the ECMWF, which came out after the above forecast was made, has a larger area of heavy rain that covers most of the state.
Currently the National Hurricane Center says there is an 80% chance of this weather system turning into at least a tropical depression.
The latest reliable model (ECMWF) has the system becoming at least a tropical storm and reading the mouth of the Gulf of California. These systems, historically, cause flooding in the Southwest or Central United States.
Typically, once the heavy rain occurs in the Southwest, heavy rain occurs in the Great Plains, somewhere from northern Texas to Nebraska. It is too soon to pin down where that might be.
Stay tuned.
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