The moisture associated with a dying Pacific hurricane is going to help cause flash flooding in the Southwest. You can see the remains of Priscilla off the coast of Baja. It contains extremely high levels of atmospheric moisture to be turned into rain.  Until 6am Friday 6 am Friday to 6am Saturday  The red area is a "moderate" risk on the national flash flood forecasting scale. Keep in mind that this is extremely high for Arizona. Take a look: Update: 3:10pm MDT, flash flood watches in effect in green.  Four Arizonans were killed in recent flash flooding in the state. At least three of the four were killed in their automobiles.  In the strongest possible terms, do not try to cross flooded areas by foot or by car!  Unless you live in a relatively low area or close to a watercourse, it might be a good idea to forego unnecessary travel. 

This is a photo of a New Mexico Roadrunner.  Konrad Wolte The question is: did the roadrunner make it to Acme (NM) before the tornado?! At least we now know the location where the roadrunner and Wile E Coyote cartoons were filmed! fireybirdything

Please note the forecast is for strong  tornadoes. The geographic area covered is a little larger than earlier forecasts. Please keep up on the weather the rest of this afternoon and into the evening if you are in these areas.  2:55pm update : Here is a more specific forecast of where the strong tornadoes are forecast to occur -- the yellow, watched area. The brown area has a significant chance of tornadoes. 

The area in brown over eastern New Mexico has a significant risk of tornadoes this afternoon and evening. Please keep up on local storm warnings.  Monday, there is at least a chance of tornadoes in Kansas. Stay tuned!

Fortunately, we haven't had to do one of these for a while. The brown area, which extends north to Mountainair and Santa Rosa, has a significant risk of tornadoes later today. Please keep up on the weather in the region. 

The weather in the central United States looks like it will be very active at least through Tuesday. I welcome you to bookmark my blog and to follow me on Twitter  @usweatherexpert .  Severe thunderstorm watch with tornadoes possible from Nebraska to Oklahoma till 4am. Second watch of the day. It forecasts tornadoes but is not a tornado watch (I wish the NWS would not do this).  First tornado watch of the day issued for west Texas.  Note the forecast of strong tornadoes  along with grapefruit-sized (!) hail and 75 mph thunderstorm-generated wind gusts. Please keep up with local weather information until 10pm this evening.  Saturday's Tornado Forecast The NWS SPC has introduced an enhanced risk of "strong" (≥EF-2) tornadoes into the forecast for Texas. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes in west Texas and southeastern most New Mexico. 

From KSNW Channel 3 News at 6pm, a graphic of wildfire locations (red). Weather satellites have the amazing ability to spot wildfires that is so good, it is often the first notification local official receive. KAKE TV tried an experiment where a satellite spotted a fire in a rural area. They called the fire department in that county and the dispatcher said, "We haven't heard anything about it." So, they went ahead and dispatched a fire truck and, sure enough... These are controlled agricultural burns.  Separately, here are the smoke plumes.  University of Wisconsin Most all of these in Kansas are prescribed burns as winds are light today. Those fires will be extinguished tomorrow before the winds increase.  Friday Important weather forecasts for the High Plains, Foothills and Mountains.  Here is the color code: Magenta = extreme fire danger.  Gold = high wind warning. In the foothills winds may exceed 100 mph.  Brown = high wind watch.  Dark turquoise ...

The area in red has a critical  wildfire risk Thursday. Please use extraordinary care to keep fires from starting. 

Here is the forecast of rainfall amounts until 7pm CDT on the 23rd. Where you see the ≥ 5" amounts in Arkansas and in Arizona and New Mexico is where flooding is likely to occur. Please monitor this situation. 

1pm MST updated flash flood risk forecast until 7a Sunday. Be especially vigilant in the yellow and red areas. The red area (greatest danger) includes Phoenix, Tucson and Flagstaff.  -- original posting --  Radar at 10:45am MST/11:45a MDT National Weather Service says,  Normally dry washes will quickly flash flood with relatively low amounts of precipitation, and many creeks remain elevated well above normal levels. Burn scars and metropolitian areas should be close attention to flood potential, as well.  Three-day rainfalls to 11a MDT exceeded six  inches  in a few spots (below). Radar (below) and other meteorological data as of 11:30a MST indicates things should be relatively quiet for another hour or two in Arizona. Then, widespread thunderstorms should develop with heavy to torrential rains.  In New Mexico, thunderstorms are developing rapidly west of Albuquerque due to a westward-moving low pressure system.  Please monitor...

Radar as of 10:35am MST There is an unusually high flash flood risk over most of Arizona and west central New Mexico including Phoenix, Flagstaff, Winslow and Gallup. Moderate to heavy rain has been falling on the Phoenix metro area all morning. Strong thunderstorms are likely in the purple-outlined area through 10pm tonight Mountain time.  Whatever you do, do not  drive through flooded areas or cross water crossings that look wet. This is a dangerous situation.