Alan Gerard is a former NWS forecasters and manager as well as a retired NOAA manager. Regarding the warning mess, today he wrote this essay . Highly recommended!   From Matthew Cappucci, a well-known Washington, DC meteorologist: More and more, I believe the NWS will "fix" this by setting up a National Storm Warning  Center (not to be confused with their Storm Prediction  Center). The problem is that, with civil service hiring rules, there is absolutely no guarantee that expert tornado warning meteorologists will be hired for the job.  The NWS desperately needs to seek outside expertise before embarking on yet another "reorganization" and it needs to take that advice seriously. 

After tornadoes in Arizona yesterday, the threat has shifted a bit to the southeast. Remember: a tornado watch  means tornadoes are possible and you should monitor the weather. A tornado warning means one is imminent and safety measures should be taken. Large hail is also possible.  Note: Because of previous obligations, I am not able to issue independent tornado warnings today. 

Looks like next week features a major flooding risk across the central Great Plains and western Midwest.  Here is a forecast of rainfall for the next 12-days. The remains of Hurricane Polo will cause as much as eight inches of rain over this time period. The band of heaviest forecast rain may have to be widened a bit to the south.  Three to 5" inches of rain was widespread over the southeast half of New Mexico this past week causing serious flooding in a number of areas. Additional heavy rain, on top of saturated grounds, could cause major to record flooding.  As much as 4" occurred last week in north central Kansas where an additional 5" of rain is forecast. Again, major flooding is possible.  I urge you to keep on the weather this week if you live in the affected areas. 

Here is the flash flood forecast from now until 6am Thursday. Please take this seriously and -- whatever you do -- do not cross flooded areas by foot or by car.  Powerful Hurricane Polo is still forecast to make a turn to the north the first of next week and it has the potential to bring more flooding to the Southwest. Note: storm surge flooding is possible in Cabo. Hawaii The Big Island is again in the "cone" (white area which is the range of uncertainty in the forecast path of the storm's center). Right now, the bigger threats are flooding and storm surge coastal flooding. Whether wind will be a major threat will depend on the exact path of the storm. 

The forecast below is still valid. However, at the end, you'll note a caution about Polo eventually threatening the Southwest. The new National Hurricane Forecast now reflects that possibility with a northward turn at Day 5. The maximum winds of Polo are 180 mph -- a very powerful hurricane.  Beyond Day 5, the forecast becomes very low confidence. Don't worry at this point. I'll keep everyone updated.  Note: I am not covering the East Coast storm because there are numerous bloggers and meteorologists who specialize in East Coast weather. Please see my Twitter/X feed: @usweatherexpert  where I am providing info on that storm.  --- original posting, 10:20a Tuesday --- Here is the updated flash flood forecast from now through 6am Wednesday Mountain Time. I would prepare for the potential for flooding in the yellow and, especially, in the red area. This is the flooding forecast from 6am Wednesday to 6am Thursday.  Category 5 Hurricane Polo off the Mexican Pacific Co...

This forecast has been updated.  Please scroll up.  This is a serious flood threat.  People traveling as well as residents should pay attention. Above is the flash flood risk forecast valid from 6am Tuesday to 6am Wednesday. The yellow had a moderate risk while the red has a high risk (on my scale).  This is the forecast for the period from 6am Wednesday to 6am Thursday.   Here is the cumulative flood forecast from Tuesday through Friday.  The dark blue area is where major flooding is possible with significant, but not as serious, flooding in the pale blue area.  For the meteorologists reading, please take a look at this satellite loop . The cluster of clouds south of Guadalajara is rapidly intensifying Hurricane Polo. It is moving little at the moment but should begin moving to the northwest tomorrow (Tuesday). As it does, it will feed rich Pacific moisture toward New Mexico and nearby areas setting the stage for flooding. Some of the models are showi...

As we have been saying for several days, there is a serious threat of flooding in New Mexico. Now, the NWS's National Water Center is forecasting the risk of serious flooding in the dark blue area with a lesser flooding risk in the pale blue area.  More than five inches of rain -- in some areas one-third of the amount of rain that occurs in an entire year -- is forecast in the eastern part of the state. The flood risk begins Tuesday night.  I'll have more on this Monday. 

I am concerned about a Pacific weather system that may eventually cause serious flooding in New Mexico.  Currently the National Hurricane Center says there is an 80% chance of this weather system turning into at least a tropical depression.  The latest reliable model (ECMWF) has the system becoming at least a tropical storm and reading the mouth of the Gulf of California. These systems, historically, cause flooding in the Southwest or Central United States.  Over the next seven days, the NWS is forecast as much as 5" of rain in eastern New Mexico which could be 1/3rd of its annual rainfall in the area. This has the potential to cause serious flooding. For what it is worth, the ECMWF, which came out after the above forecast was made, has a larger area of heavy rain that covers most of the state.  Typically, once the heavy rain occurs in the Southwest, heavy rain occurs in the Great Plains, somewhere from northern Texas to Nebraska. It is too soon to pin down where tha...

The moisture associated with a dying Pacific hurricane is going to help cause flash flooding in the Southwest. You can see the remains of Priscilla off the coast of Baja. It contains extremely high levels of atmospheric moisture to be turned into rain.  Until 6am Friday 6 am Friday to 6am Saturday  The red area is a "moderate" risk on the national flash flood forecasting scale. Keep in mind that this is extremely high for Arizona. Take a look: Update: 3:10pm MDT, flash flood watches in effect in green.  Four Arizonans were killed in recent flash flooding in the state. At least three of the four were killed in their automobiles.  In the strongest possible terms, do not try to cross flooded areas by foot or by car!  Unless you live in a relatively low area or close to a watercourse, it might be a good idea to forego unnecessary travel. 

This is a photo of a New Mexico Roadrunner.  Konrad Wolte The question is: did the roadrunner make it to Acme (NM) before the tornado?! At least we now know the location where the roadrunner and Wile E Coyote cartoons were filmed! fireybirdything

Please note the forecast is for strong  tornadoes. The geographic area covered is a little larger than earlier forecasts. Please keep up on the weather the rest of this afternoon and into the evening if you are in these areas.  2:55pm update : Here is a more specific forecast of where the strong tornadoes are forecast to occur -- the yellow, watched area. The brown area has a significant chance of tornadoes. 

The area in brown over eastern New Mexico has a significant risk of tornadoes this afternoon and evening. Please keep up on local storm warnings.  Monday, there is at least a chance of tornadoes in Kansas. Stay tuned!

Fortunately, we haven't had to do one of these for a while. The brown area, which extends north to Mountainair and Santa Rosa, has a significant risk of tornadoes later today. Please keep up on the weather in the region. 

The weather in the central United States looks like it will be very active at least through Tuesday. I welcome you to bookmark my blog and to follow me on Twitter  @usweatherexpert .  Severe thunderstorm watch with tornadoes possible from Nebraska to Oklahoma till 4am. Second watch of the day. It forecasts tornadoes but is not a tornado watch (I wish the NWS would not do this).  First tornado watch of the day issued for west Texas.  Note the forecast of strong tornadoes  along with grapefruit-sized (!) hail and 75 mph thunderstorm-generated wind gusts. Please keep up with local weather information until 10pm this evening.  Saturday's Tornado Forecast The NWS SPC has introduced an enhanced risk of "strong" (≥EF-2) tornadoes into the forecast for Texas. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes in west Texas and southeastern most New Mexico. 

From KSNW Channel 3 News at 6pm, a graphic of wildfire locations (red). Weather satellites have the amazing ability to spot wildfires that is so good, it is often the first notification local official receive. KAKE TV tried an experiment where a satellite spotted a fire in a rural area. They called the fire department in that county and the dispatcher said, "We haven't heard anything about it." So, they went ahead and dispatched a fire truck and, sure enough... These are controlled agricultural burns.  Separately, here are the smoke plumes.  University of Wisconsin Most all of these in Kansas are prescribed burns as winds are light today. Those fires will be extinguished tomorrow before the winds increase.  Friday Important weather forecasts for the High Plains, Foothills and Mountains.  Here is the color code: Magenta = extreme fire danger.  Gold = high wind warning. In the foothills winds may exceed 100 mph.  Brown = high wind watch.  Dark turquoise ...

The area in red has a critical  wildfire risk Thursday. Please use extraordinary care to keep fires from starting. 

Here is the forecast of rainfall amounts until 7pm CDT on the 23rd. Where you see the ≥ 5" amounts in Arkansas and in Arizona and New Mexico is where flooding is likely to occur. Please monitor this situation. 

1pm MST updated flash flood risk forecast until 7a Sunday. Be especially vigilant in the yellow and red areas. The red area (greatest danger) includes Phoenix, Tucson and Flagstaff.  -- original posting --  Radar at 10:45am MST/11:45a MDT National Weather Service says,  Normally dry washes will quickly flash flood with relatively low amounts of precipitation, and many creeks remain elevated well above normal levels. Burn scars and metropolitian areas should be close attention to flood potential, as well.  Three-day rainfalls to 11a MDT exceeded six  inches  in a few spots (below). Radar (below) and other meteorological data as of 11:30a MST indicates things should be relatively quiet for another hour or two in Arizona. Then, widespread thunderstorms should develop with heavy to torrential rains.  In New Mexico, thunderstorms are developing rapidly west of Albuquerque due to a westward-moving low pressure system.  Please monitor...

Radar as of 10:35am MST There is an unusually high flash flood risk over most of Arizona and west central New Mexico including Phoenix, Flagstaff, Winslow and Gallup. Moderate to heavy rain has been falling on the Phoenix metro area all morning. Strong thunderstorms are likely in the purple-outlined area through 10pm tonight Mountain time.  Whatever you do, do not  drive through flooded areas or cross water crossings that look wet. This is a dangerous situation.