The National Weather Service today forecast a "below average" hurricane season. Yet, we are seeing headlines like this: There is no reason to "prepare now" for a hurricane. Hurricane season doesn't even start until June 1.  I hate clickbait relating to weather. 

Happy to report the tropics, as they affect the U.S., 

Satellite image from 4pm EDT. Humberto with 90 mph is the well-defined hurricane, with an eye, in the right part of the image. The messy cloudiness from Cuba into the Turks and Cacaos is what is expected to form into Imelda.  We have an exceptionally complex meteorological situation because of the two tropical systems potentially interacting with each other. However, since we have the potential for Imelda to form, it appears the most likely area to be affected is outlined in red, below. Two models are showing Imelda getting into coastal areas and then slowing down or even stalling. IF  this occurs -- hardly a sure thing -- there will be heavy to torrential rains and flooding over part  of this area. Near the coast there will be power outages. Dangerous surf will occur because of both storms.  So, I suggest that if you are in the red area you make preliminary precautions for high winds near the coast and potential heavy rains and flooding inland.  Of course, I wi...

We have a usually complex situation developing that might  cause a tropical storm or hurricane to strike the Atlantic Coast. And in spite of what one newspaper is reporting, we simply do not know whether a storm will come inland or not.  The Details Humberto formed this morning and, at this point, is likely to become a major storm but has a better than 50/50 chance of not approaching the U.S. coast. . The X also has a high chance of becoming a tropical storm or hurricane. If so, its name would be Imelda. Various models and forecast techniques indicate give inconsistent prognoses as to its future path.  Because we believe in "no hurricane hype," this is the first time in 2025 where I believe we have a significant chance of a hurricane affecting the U.S. coast. Please check back and I will provide the best forecasts possible in what is certain to be a challenging forecast situation. 

We have not and will not be covering Hurricane Erin (now Cat 2) because it poses no threat to the mainland United States.  As we have stated many times, we do not participate in hurricane clickbait, including the extensive clickbait earlier this week. 

In a just-issued forecast from the National Hurricane Center, the red path is where a tropical storm or hurricane could develop the next seven days. Please note that even after 7 days, any storm will still be far off the United States coast.  I would not worry at all about this possible storm at this point.  Of course, I will update later this week. 

We are beginning to watch a weather system starting to form over the far western Caribbean that has the potential to develop into a tropical storm or hurricane next week. Preliminary forecasts indicate it will come into the Gulf. Beyond that, it is too soon to say. Please stay tuned. 

We have a tropical storm waring for Jamaica and a hurricane watch for the Cayman Islands.  On this map, S = tropical storm and H = hurricane. At this point, it does not appear likely that a hurricane will strike the United States. However, we will watch the situation carefully and update as necessary. 

Important update, 5:30pm Friday. There is a phony  (as in created maliciously) image circulating around the internet, allegedly from a model that indicates the worst hurricane in the history of the world in the Gulf of Mexico late this upcoming week. Don't worry:  it won't happen!  Could a tropical storm, or even hurricane, form in the latter part of next week? Yes. Do we have any idea where a storm will go ( if  it forms)? No! Given the breathless, and almost certainly incorrect, forecasts others made for the 2024 hurricane season, unethical people are seeking page views by putting out scary, unrealistic forecasts. The ECMWF model is the best for forecasting hurricanes. At 1pm next Wednesday (below) there is nothing out there. So, don't lose sleep over these clickbait forecasts. As was the case with all of the hurricanes this year, you'll hear from us in plenty of time.  --- original posting --- At this point (8:30am Friday), I do not forecast a tropical storm ...

So far, the good news continues. Keep your prayers coming that when storms do develop, they stay out to sea. 

The National Hurricane Center says nothing in the way of a tropical storm for the next seven days. Yay!! Looking a little farther out, the single most accurate model for hurricane forecasting, the ECMWF, says nothing for the next ten days, which takes us to August 31 (below). The ECMWF now has an adjunct version that uses artificial intelligence; it says no storms, also. Important note: this is the first hurricane season for AI adjunct so we have no idea how skillful it may be.   None of the other models that reliably forecast tropical weather are forecasting any tropical storms through ten days. In fact, the model consensus until the end of the month is for abnormally calm conditions.  Addition : Matt Lanza, a Houston-based meteorologist who is a fine hurricane forecaster, published a piece on this same topic today. It begins: Coming into this hurricane season, there were breathless forecasts calling for anywhere from 20 to even 30 named storms from some folks. Government for...

And, wasn't this hurricane season supposed to be an early one? While Beryl was the earliest Cat 5 in history, what is occurring in this forecast-to-be-unprecedented hurricane season is .... nothing.  While August and September are, climatologically, the worst months hurricane seasons, this forecast -- which runs to July 27 -- would have been unexpected to the "sky is falling" climate alarmist crowd.