2-Week Rainfall Update and Forecast

There is a lot of chatter on Twitter today about recent and forecast rainfall. So, I thought I'd update everyone. 

Past Two Week's Actual Rainfall

Past Two Week's Deviation From Average

Most of the confusion centers around some erroneous (I believe) forecasts for the rest of this week. Those comments centered around, 
  1. Dry weather is resuming as of today.
  2. No severe thunderstorms in the central Great Plains the rest of the week.
I don't get #1, at all. The new NWS rainfall forecast through the end of the week calls for generous, even excessive, rainfall. This includes the central Great Plains. No sign of the rainfall stopping, at all.

The confusion about #2 is, I think, due to confusion about how the NWS's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) forecasts longer range tornado and severe thunderstorm situations. 
"Predictability Too Low" doesn't mean "no severe thunderstorms." It means, in SPC's opinion, they are not able to nail down where it will occur.

I am going to go out on a limb to forecast that severe thunderstorms will occur somewhere in the central Great Plains late Thursday and Thursday night and, again, over the weekend. Tornadoes are even possible. 

Hopefully, this clears up any confusion. Happy to help.


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