Tuesday, June 27, 2023

Derecho Forecast Update: KS, OK, and Ozarks

This forecast has been updated as of 2:15pm. Scroll up.
The yellow area has a significant risk of 60-74 mph winds. The red area has an enhanced risk of those winds and -- where you see the hatching -- gusts may exceed 75 mph. The models that did an outstanding job on the derecho of 17th, say that a few spots may have gusts of 90 mph. If the forecast is correct, there will be extensive power failures and tree damage. 

The initial thunderstorms will form in southeast Colorado around 3-4pm. They will congeal near the KS-CO border and then move rapidly east. They should slowly weaken when they reach the Ozarks by the end of the forecast period which is 7am CDT Wednesday. 

Giant hail is possible, especially west of I-35, with smaller hail to the east. 

Now is the time to prepare! Safety recommendations are below:
  • Call friends and relatives to make sure they are aware of the threat, especially if they live in a mobile home. 
  • Make sure you have at least three ways of receiving storm warnings. Since the threat along and east of Interstate 35 will be at night, StormWarn is a great way to receive information. It worked great at 11:30 last Saturday evening when we had a tornado warning that included my home.  
  • If you live in a mobile home, you may wish to move spend time with a friend or relative when a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch is issued. 
  • Ask yourself what you would need if you were without electricity for five days. In some areas it will be longer, but five days is a good planning target. If you think I am exaggerating, some in northeast Oklahoma were without power for a week!
  • Battery-operated fans for the same reason (it will be quite hot the next few days)
  • In Houston, people died due to carbon monoxide poisoning due to misuse of generators after their windstorm last week. If you have a portable generate, make sure it is full of fuel but -- above all -- follow the manufacturer's instructions for use. 
  • If you have a chain saw, fill it with fuel.
  • Check your tornado shelter. Make sure it has a couple of bottles of water and, if appropriate, diapers.
  • Any essential foods or medicines should be taken care of immediately, well before the storms arrive. 
  • Have all of your devices charged but disconnect when you see the first lightning or hear the first thunder.
  • Keep the kids in close communication. 
  • Bring in lawn furniture, trampolines or anything else that can blow away. 
  • Put the car in the garage. 
  • Pick any ripe tomatoes!
You can also follow more for more on Twitter @usweatherexpert.

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