Monday, June 26, 2023

Derecho Risk Update

I've looked over the models this evening and the area enclosed in red is where I am projecting the potential derecho's path starting around 5pm Tuesday and continuing to 2am Wednesday in the Ozarks of Missouri and Arkansas. It is highly uncertain whether the derecho will continue southeast from there. There is some risk of a tornado or two to the west of I-35 but that is also highly uncertain at this point. 

There is a possibility that winds may gust to 90 mph in places. If so, there will be extensive power outages and felled trees. 

Now is the time to prepare. Safety recommendations are below:
  • Call friends and relatives to make sure they are aware of the threat, especially if they live in a mobile home. 
  • Make sure you have at least three ways of receiving storm warnings. Since the threat along and east of Interstate 35 will be at night, StormWarn is a great way to receive information. It worked great at 11:30 last Saturday evening when we had a tornado warning that included my home.  
  • If you live in a mobile home, you may wish to move spend time with a friend or relative when a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch is issued. 
  • Ask yourself what you would need if you were without electricity for five days. In some areas it will be longer, but five days is a good planning target. If you think I am exaggerating, some in northeast Oklahoma were without power for a week!
  • Battery-operated fans for the same reason (it will be quite hot the next few days)
  • In Houston, people died due to carbon monoxide poisoning due to misuse of generators after their windstorm last week. If you have a portable generate, make sure it is full of fuel but -- above all -- follow the manufacturer's instructions for use. 
  • If you have a chain saw, fill it with fuel.
  • Check your tornado shelter. Make sure it has a couple of bottles of water and, if appropriate, diapers.
  • Any essential foods or medicines should be taken care of immediately, well before the storms arrive. 
  • Have all of your devices charged but disconnect when you see the first lightning or hear the first thunder.
  • Keep the kids in close communication. 
  • Bring in lawn furniture, trampolines or anything else that can blow away. 
  • Put the car in the garage. 
  • Pick any ripe tomatoes!
You can also follow more for more on Twitter @usweatherexpert.

Of course, I will update all of this at least twice tomorrow. 

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