11:30 am Saturday, Texas Flood Update: 27People Dead, "More Than 25" Children Missing

By -
11:30am, Saturday, July 5: 27 confirmed deaths, more than 25 children missing, 270 rescued, "more deaths expected."


9:40pm. The death toll has risen to 24.   9:50pm. The number of missing campers is now 23-25, that is up from earlier. 

7:45pm. Thirteen are confirmed dead. This does not count the girls from the camp which accounts for 23 missing. However, there is (as of 7:15pm) a social media post showing two girls from Camp Mystic being carried into a hospital. This would indicate the number of missing from CM is now 21. 

I don't know if these were the two carried into the hospital.

3:50pm. Texas Governor Abbott has announced at 23 children are missing from a single summer camp along the Guadalupe River southwest of Ingram, Texas. There are unconfirmed reports of people missing from other camps. A map of camps and more information is below. 

4:05pm. Below is a video of a girl being rescued from a tree by helicopter this morning. State of Texas video. 

-- original posting --
As a result of overnight cloudbursts, the Guadalupe River along and upstream of Kerrville, Texas, has reached at least the second highest stage in its history. Many boy and girl scout camps and vacation camps are along the river in this area. See the diamond symbols in the middle of the map (below). 1:55pm: There is a time-lapse of the rising water here. 
At the town of Comfort, near the Interstate "10" shield just off the map on the right in Kendall County, the river has reached a stage of at least 30 feet. It rose 27' in one hour this morning!


More than ten inches of rain fell during the night along the South Fork and North Forks of the Guadalupe River.  1:55pm: Storm total rainfall appears to be in excess of 13" in places. 
The darker purple areas represent 10 to 12 inches of rain. The thin blue lines are the rivers. The City of Kerrville, the larges city in the area, is at right. The thick red line is Interstate 10. 

This was a road. 

The death toll, so far, is 23 between 6 and 8 depending on the source. There are stories of children missing from the scout camps but the numbers -- at this moment -- are in dispute. There was a camping site for mobile campers near Ingram with a report that all of the campers (the vehicles) washed away.

2pm: Flood gates are being opened in several areas. Details here. 

There are widespread power failures and internet failures which is making it difficult to get information out of the area.
The 5,600 9,000 (as of 3:45pm) "customers" represent the numbers of homes and businesses. For example, a camp hosting 200 children would be one "customer." Kerr County is orange -- the highest number of outages. 

I am providing additional information on Twitter/X  @usweatherexpert .

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Overnight Tornado Forecast Posted at 7:05pm

By -
Image
Here is the tornado forecast for the rest of the night (till 6am CST). Red, hatched = high risk of strong tornadoes. Yellow, hatched = enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. Blown = significant risk of tornadoes.  This will be the last update of the night. Tornado Watch until 2am. Please make sure you have ways of getting warnings of tornadoes and 80 mph winds.  6:15pm  NWS believes the chances for tornadoes and damaging winds are increasing in Mississippi. They also say they are going to extend the tornado watch to the east later this evening.  5:35pm: The northwest part of the tornado watch has been cancelled Here is the area where tornadoes are more likely from 4:30 to 7:30pm. From Atmosphere Analytics Rare "Particularly Dangerous Situation" Tornado Watch till 9pm If you live in these areas it is vital  to monitor the weather until the watch expires at 9pm  Note the forecast is for "numerous strong tornadoes." A very rare "particularly dangerous situation" ...
Read more

645pm Update: Heads Up For Louisiana, Texas and Tamaulipas

By -
Image
Note: this forecast has been updated. Go here for the latest.  Update at 6:45pm. The National Hurricane Center now seems to agree with my forecast.  The red area is where they are forecasting an 80% chance of a tropical depression, or stronger storm, to develop sometime during the next seven days. I believe the best chance is in the Tuesday to Thursday period for tropical storm development.  Update at 6pm: The afternoon model runs, among the models I trust, continue to show a good chance (at least 50%) of a tropical storm forming in the western Gulf. I will update this forecast Sunday morning.  Update at 1pm: The new run of the models I trust are in and my confidence has only grown that there is a threat of a tropical storm developing in the western Gulf of Mexico to the west of the orange line. The rest of this forecast (below) is still valid.  People in the USA and northeast Mexico (west of the orange line) should keep an eye on the weather this week. While t...
Read more

Tornado Forecast Update at 2am Wednesday

By -
Image
2am While the risk of tornadoes may continue during the night, this will have to end my coverage.  Note the risk of tornadoes farther east later today.  1:35am Wednesday: Tornado watch will likely be issued for the outlined area, including the Kansas City Metro. Make sure you have a way to receive tornado warnings the rest of the night.  11:55p Tuesday: New tornado watch has just been issued for most south central (including Wichita), southeast and east central Kansas.  This watch is in effect until 7am Wednesday. This is the overnight tornado threat we've been talking about.  I am now providing additional updates on Twitter/X   @usweatherexpert .  --- original posting (still valid) --- Now until 7a Wednesday The tornado risk has decreased in Oklahoma south of I-40. 7am to Noon Wednesday For Wednesday morning, there is a significant chance of tornadoes in western and, especially, northern Missouri. It is unusual to have tornadoes during the morning....
Read more