7:40pm Monday Updated Tornado Outlook

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7pm Update


5pm Update


4pm Update:



Update at 3:35pm
The tornado watch corresponding to the 2:40pm update (below) was just posted. 

in addition...

A tornado watch will be issued for the area outlined in red. There is a line of towering cumulus clouds (3:35p) that will form the basis of strong thunderstorms by early evening. 


Update at 2:40pm
A tornado watch will be issued for the area outlined in red: parts of western Wisconsin. the southeast half of Minnesota and northern Iowa. The NWS SPC has, within that area, outlined an area from the Twin Cities to about Ames, IA where the potential for strong or violent tornadoes exists. I will post the tornado watch when it is issued. 


First Tornado Watch of the Day, 12:40pm
Please note: in addition to tornadoes, damaging wind gusts to 80 mph (power failures likely) and
3.5" hail are likely to occur. 
---

12:45pm, forecast below is still valid. 

Subtle Changes to The Tornado Outlook for This Afternoon and Evening


If you will recall, 
  • red hatched is a high risk of strong tornadoes. 
  • yellow hatched is an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes
  • brown is a significant risk of strong tornadoes. 
The Storm Prediction Center has moved the enhanced, strong tornado area into northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. Since this forecast was released, one of the computer tornado forecast guidance tools brought the yellow area a little farther south in Kansas.

Also, compared to this morning, the enhanced (yellow) area in Oklahoma has been eliminated and has been cut back to a "significant" threat. 

Throughout all three colors, giant ( 2" or larger) hail is possible.

I will update again later this afternoon. I will also provide periodic updates on Twitter/X @usweatherexpert. 


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