Important Note About Online Hurricane Forecasts

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You may have seen this image floating around social media about a “May hurricane” that just isn’t going to occur. 



The model image posted on social media is from the American GFS model, well known to be merely the 4th best in the world.  The GFS "overforecasts" hurricanes to a huge extent. I sometimes comment that it forecasts "11 of every 2 hurricanes." This image depicts a Cat 3 hurricane near Florida, a near impossibility in the month of May. 

 

Here's the thing: No other model is forecasting a hurricane, let alone a major hurricane, or anything like it. That is a sure sign the GFS model has created yet another of its fictional storms. 

 

The world's #1 model, the ECMWF (depicted below), shows very pleasant weather over Florida region at that same time as the GFS is forecasting its "fictioncane." I won't go into the problems with the National Weather Service's modeling as we have talked about that on other occasions.

 

To restate our policy since this blog was created in 2009: we never hype hurricanes or any other storms. If you want hype-free hurricane forecasts in 2025, we'd appreciate you visiting this blog. 

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