Kentucky Fatal Tornado Inadequately Warned By the National Weather Service

There is confusion this morning as the NWS in Louisville (which did the damage survey) said it completed the survey of the fatal tornado's path yesterday. However, I cannot find the results of the survey. I thought I had found it, but it turned out that was a different tornado. 

Stay tuned.

--- original post, still valid ---

Another strong ( ≥EF-2), fatal tornado occurred in Kentucky this morning. Details here. Unfortunately, it lacked an advance tornado warning. Nor was a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch in effect. This event has little or nothing to do with the National Weather Service (NWS) being short handed. The serious issues with the tornado warning system have existed since 2011. 

The purpose of this note is to document another example of the NWS's tornado warning issues with a goal of fixing them. As I wrote yesterday, 

So we are clear: NWS and NOAA (especially the latter) desperately need reform. President Trump, so far, has gone about it the wrong way. His administration has been using a sledge hammer when a scalpel, combined with a vision for the future of the organization, is what is needed. 

But, the lack of advance warning of strong tornadoes in cases like this has been a serious problem for nearly 15 years. The NWS, around 2004, made the decision to discontinue its in-person radar interpretation and tornado warning school. As the generation of meteorologists who have had decades of experience (before and after Doppler) has retired, the lack of experience and training has resulted in a lowering of tornado warning quality (per the NWS/NOAA's own figures). 

The National Weather Service's statement (below), issued 6:46am EDT, says radar showed a "TDS" (tornado debris signature) which is a high confidence indicator of a tornado. Instead of issuing a tornado warning, the NWS issued a severe thunderstorm warning calling for 60 mph winds. 

Below is the text of the severe thunderstorm warning, which was issued at the time of the TDS. 

In 2012, the National Weather Service (NWS) made the mistake of allowing its meteorologists to add the term, "tornado...possible" to its severe thunderstorm warnings (below is the appended tornado statement to the above severe thunderstorm warning). But, no one takes tornado safety measures unless a tornado warning is issued.

Allowing meteorologists to "hedge their bets" in tornado warning situations was and is a terrible idea. 

The radar by 6:46am (below) was clear: A tornado was either in progress or was rapidly forming. Add the NWS's observation of the TDS and there is no question a tornado warning should have been issued. 

The tornado warning was not issued until 6:49am EDT.

Time shown is Central Daylight = 6:49am EDT (local time).

There was significant rotation in the storm as early as 6:36 (below). 

The rotation gradually strengthened and by 6:44, the tornado threat is clear. 

There is little question a central Kentucky tornado warning could have, and should have, been issued prior to 6:49pm EDT this morning. The question is whether the National Weather Service will take this, its own statistics and the dozens of other documented cases of inadequate warnings to make the changes desperately needed in its tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warning programs.